It’s probably no surprise that one of my ALL TIME favorite movies is “Groundhog Day” starring Bill Murray. If you haven’t seen it, the movie revolves around a local weather man (Bill Murray) who is doing a special report on Groundhog Day in Pennsylvania. After Bill Murray gives his special report, which he is not very thrilled about to begin with, he and his team travel back to their TV station but are surprised when they run into a blizzard and are forced to return to Punxsutawney to spend the night. The movie REALLY gets funny when Bill Murray wakes up the following morning to find that it is once again Groundhog Day and he is forced to live it over and over again, day after day doing the same weather report! If you haven’t seen it, you’re really missing out!
Ok, you might be wondering what the heck kind of point is Kyle trying to make here? The point I’m trying to make is that with EVERY possible winter storm now, I see the same thing. I see claims of a mega storm over a week out, I see outrageous hype simply to garner likes and shares on social media. The latest example of this has been with news of a possible storm this Christmas.
Here is another quick lesson on why a major winter storm can’t accurately be predicted a week out and why anything you see on social media right now is pure speculation.
For example. Let me show you YESTERDAY MORNING’S run of the GFS model. What you’re looking at below is a very deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes on Christmas Eve. This would have meant maybe 2 or 3 inches of snow and VERY windy conditions here leading into Christmas Day.
Now let’s look at THIS MORNING’S run of the GFS. What you’re looking at here is an elongated low that looks more like it could be taking shape over the NE coast rather than the Great Lakes. This low is MUCH weaker than the low from the previous run and for us, would only mean maybe an inch or two of snow Christmas Eve and MUCH less wind. Do you see the difference a day can make when you’re still about a week away from the actual storm?
So here’s the bottom line
Is there a chance we could see some snow making for a white Christmas? Sure! Will this end up being a “Monster Storm” for us here in West Central Ohio? It’s still WAY too early to tell, but my hunch says probably not. Forecast models will continue to fluctuate quite a bit over the next 2 or 3 days and it won’t be until Sunday or Monday when they will finally begin to really pin down the track of the storm. What these models are telling me though is that we are indeed anticipating a much more active weather pattern to end 2014 :) Just remember, any calls for a “Christmas Storm” at this point is probably just hype.