Check Out The Lyrid Meteor Shower!

We missed the total lunar eclipse the other night but for the next week and a half we’ll have the opportunity to see the Lyrid Meteor Shower (pronounced LIE-RID)

LYRID METEOR SHOWER

This meteor shower can be seen annually, usually from April 16th to April 25th. Peak activity for the shower is expected to be anywhere from 10 to 20 meteors per hour. We do have a bright moon out there so they may be a little harder to see, but definitely worth a look during the late evening hours! So look up and to the northeast if we have a clear night in the next 9 days, you may see some April shooting stars!

The peak for this year’s meteor shower is expected to fall on April 22nd!

-Kyle

April 15th Snow!

I’m waiting to hear the resounding cheer from all around West Central Ohio for this blog post! (sarcasm) But yes, we will indeed see some snow overnight thanks to a strong cold front moving through the region.

Rain will begin to switch over to sleet and snow overnight as temperatures fall off a cliff into the upper 20′s tonight for a low.

Future 1

By about 3 or 4 AM, most of us should see all snow here in West Central Ohio.

Future 2

The snow will be out of here by 8 or 9 Tuesday morning.

Future 3

So how much will this all add up too? The latest computer model guidance has been very bullish on snowfall amounts with some forecasting upwards of 4 inches of snow on the ground by noon Tuesday! This is NOT going to happen, the ground is too warm. Initially the snow will not stick, it will just melt away on contact. Because of this we’ll lose 1 or 2 inches just from immediate melting alone. Remember, we had temperatures close to 80 degrees this weekend, soil temperatures are anywhere from 50 to 60 degrees here in Ohio! Once it does start to stick we’ll very likely see anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of snow that will QUICKLY begin to melt with any sunshine Tuesday.

Kyle Snow Totals

The southeastern part of the viewing area in the 1 to 3 inch range may end up seeing a little more snow as well due to higher elevations! Because of this, rain may switch over to snow a little more quickly thus leading to higher accumulations.

Don’t worry though, this snow really has no chance of sticking around for long! Temperatures will be back above 60 by Thursday :)

-Kyle

 

 

 

Oh No! Could There Be More Snow?

Temperatures were just TWO degrees shy of 80 degrees for our Sunday so it’s hard to imagine that in the next 36 hours there could be a coating of snow on the ground!

We’ll see on and off rain move into the region tonight and tomorrow along a cold front that will bring continued windy conditions and MUCH colder temperatures by this time Monday. By early Tuesday morning temperatures will drop off by almost 50 degrees allowing for some of the rain to switch over to snow showers Monday night/Tuesday morning.

As of now (Sunday evening) ensemble forecasts are showing a VERY good potential to see at least an inch of snow.

SREF model showing a swath of 1 to 2 inches of snow for parts o Ohio

SREF model showing a swath of 1 to 2 inches of snow for most of Ohio

On top of that, models are also showing a better than 50 percent chance that we could see over 2 inches of snow!

A National Weather Service map showing the probabilities of 2 or more inches of snow.

A National Weather Service map showing the probabilities of 2 or more inches of snow.

So what do I make of all this?

Well, as much as I don’t like to talk about snow this time of year, it’s not all that out of the ordinary. The good news is that we’re coming off of a weekend with temperatures in the mid to upper 70′s, and while forecast models are showing the potential for over 2 inches of snow, I don’t think that’s going to happen because the ground will be just too warm! I have to think that if forecast models are showing 2-3 inches of snow, the first inch that falls will melt right away! For this reason I think an inch of snow, AT THE MOST, 2 inches will be possible by late Tuesday morning.

I’ll update once again on Monday as the storm begins to move in! Hopefully everyone had a great weekend!

-Kyle

 

Welcome Back, 70 Degree Weather!

 

It had been since October 13th, 2013 here in Lima that we managed to warm to 70 degrees or more, but we finally got there on Thursday with a high of 74! Now that we have had one day with 70+ degree weather we can expect a few more for our upcoming weekend :)

The warm weather will come with a good deal of sunshine on Saturday here in West Central Ohio thanks to a warm front lifting to the north of us. As this front moves through it will once again open the flood gates for some very warm air to build in. While we will see mostly sunny skies Saturday, an isolated shower will be possible with the boundary lifting through.

Sat Future

Temperatures on Saturday should easily warm past 70 degrees once again thanks to the front lifting north and another strong south wind bringing up those warm temperatures. This is looking like a VERY nice day to get outside :)

Sat Temps

There will be a bit of breeze as well with south winds from 15 to 25 mph, but the stronger winds won’t come until Sunday.

Sat Wind

The warm front to the north will also be the focus for potential severe weather later into the afternoon and evening, we don’t have anything to worry about here.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

On Sunday the temperatures will continue to warm along with winds continuing to pick up out of the south. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that we could see some locations in the viewing are possibly reaching 80 degrees!

Sun Temps

We can give thanks to a VERY strong wind on Sunday for bringing up those warm temperatures. Winds will be sustained between 25 and 35 mph throughout the day with gusts over 40 mph possible as well.

Sun Wind

All of this will take place with a cold front lingering off to our West. As this front approaches it will bring a late day chance for a thunderstorm. But it’s not until Monday morning that it will really impact the region with potentially heavy rain possible to start the new week.

Sun Future

Just like Saturday, on Sunday the chance for severe weather will be along the frontal boundaries. While we could see a thunderstorm late in the day Sunday, it very likely would be below severe limits.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

All in all this is expected to be a VERY nice weekend here in West Central Ohio, definitely one that I am looking forward too!

A couple other things to note:

Today is the 49th anniversary of the 1965 Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak

palmsundayalltornadoes

For a GREAT write-up by the NWS on this read here THE PALM SUNDAY STORY

ALSO! We have the chance to view a total lunar eclipse this coming Tuesday morning! I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the rain will be out of here by then to hopefully get a look :) The details are in this graphic I made, check it out!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Make Sure You’re Prepared For Severe Weather!

Now that we’re into the Spring season, it’s a GREAT time of the year to go over some of the essentials when it comes to severe weather!

The first reminder is the basics of a WATCH and WARNING whenever severe weather threatens.

A Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado WATCH means conditions are FAVORABLE for the development of severe weather. A WARNING means that a storm is IMMINENT or actually OCCURING!

Watch V Warning

Remembering basic severe weather safety should be a TOP priority as well!

Lightning Safety

Tornado Safety

Here in West Central Ohio we can see severe weather in April, but the season here doesn’t really begin to peak until Late May. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has some very cool graphics that display when and where the severe threat is the highest during the course of the year. The overall severe threat peaks in late June/early July here in West Central Ohio

Severe Probs

However, the peak of our best chances for a tornado are about a month earlier in late May/early June.

Twister Probs

For MUCH more on these maps check out the link here. This is definitely a VERY informational website to look at :)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/SVRclimo/climo.php?parm=anySvr

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday Night/Friday Severe Weather Update!

We had A LOT of rain today here in West Central Ohio, but the severe weather threat has remained well off to our southwest for the day with tornadoes, high wind and hail all being reported in parts of the Midwest.

A look at radar this evening shows a large area of severe weather in Missouri and Southern Illinois moving to the east.

Night Radar

By midnight these storms are expected to form a well-developed squall line that will general be along and south of a warm front.

Future 1

As this entire system continues to push east, the bulk of the activity is expected to remain south of us here in West Central Ohio. Heavy rain and the potential for severe storms with a damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado threat look as if it will stay just south of West Central Ohio overnight.

Future 2

While a scattered shower/thunderstorm is possible overnight, it doesn’t look as if we’ll deal with severe weather here through the early morning hours on Friday!

The cold front will continue to approach the region by late morning Friday. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along this boundary by early afternoon Friday.

Future 3

Winds will increase ahead of this front here in West Central Ohio during this timeframe. Wind gusts will easily be gusting above 40 mph tomorrow early afternoon and could be higher in any thunderstorms. Because of this we’ll have a slight chance for a strong to severe storm, but the overall threat remains low at this time.

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

The front will clear West Central Ohio by late afternoon, essentially putting any end to storms here in the region.

Future 4

We’ll see more rain too as this all passes through, but nothing compared to what we saw earlier Thursday.

Kyle Future Rainfall

Of course we’ll continue to monitor the situation, but as of now, it looks as if we’ll dodge any real threat for severe weather with this system!

-Kyle

 

 

Thursday Night/Friday Severe Threat In West Central Ohio Is All About Timing!

Let me start off by saying that I do believe that while we do have a chance for severe weather here in West Central Ohio Late Thursday And Friday, our overall threat is still on the low side at this point.

With that said here is how it will unfold and why timing will play a BIG factor.

Here is a look at the frontal positions Thursday evening. The area I have circled is where the best chance for severe weather will be during the day.

 

Future 1

Here is the SPC risk outlook for Thursday

Day 1 Regional

As you can see, the moderate risk area is FAR removed from West Central Ohio. It’s in this region where the best chance for a tornado outbreak will be on Thursday.

The timeframe for our best chance for severe weather here in West Central Ohio won’t arrive until closer to midnight and after Friday morning.

Day 1 local

It’s around this time when the energy from the moderate risk area earlier in the day will reach Ohio. As the storms travel through Illinois and Indiana into the overnight hours they will likely lose some steam. Here is what Futurecast is showing in the midnight to 3 AM time frame when the storms will POTENTIALLY arrive.

Future 2

These storms will be riding along a frontal boundary and will have the potential to produce damaging wind and hail. As of now it appears there is very little threat for the development of an isolated tornado, but honestly, that can NEVER be ruled out in these situations.

Toward daybreak on Friday the cold front will still loom off to our West…..

Future 3

This is where timing will REALLY come into play depending on how quickly the front can make it through West Central Ohio. This front has been showing signs of slowing down in the past couple of model runs, here is why that is important to watch. Here are two scenarios.

If the front can pass through during the late morning/early afternoon hours Friday. This would mean much less of a chance for severe weather. This area of low pressure will be pulling up a good deal of moisture and warmth out ahead of it Friday morning. If the front passes through earlier in the day, it won’t be able to tap into that energy here in West Central Ohio.

If the front passes through during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Then we’ll have a much better chance for a damaging wind/hail threat on Friday. Dew points on Friday will likely reach well into the 50′s before this front moves through.

Future Dew Points

If the front can tap into that moisture AND peak daytime heating with temps in the mid to upper 60′s then we’ll likely deal with a squall line of isolated severe thunderstorms in the 12PM to 4PM timeframe on Friday.

It’s all about the timing of the cold front on Friday! I’ll be watching very closely in the coming days!

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

Heavy Rain And Possible Severe Weather To Begin April!

After a very nice start to the week here in West Central Ohio, April showers will arrive in full force beginning late Wednesday!

The rain will be thanks to a warm front lifting out of the south toward West Central Ohio over the next three days. This front will bring several rounds of rain to the region that will really begin to add up by the time Friday rolls around.

The first round of showers will move through late tonight and early Wednesday morning, this round will be light and out of here by late morning.

Round 1

Round two will arrive late Wednesday afternoon with the potential for heavier rainfall a bit higher, we may even hear some thunder.

Round 2

While we may hear some thunder on Wednesday, the severe weather threat will remain well to the West of us and out into the Plains.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

Round 3 will hit Thursday morning around sunrise, heavy rain with a strong thunderstorm or two is a possibility.

Round 3

It’s when the main area of low pressure approaches Thursday night when we’ll see our best chance for a few severe thunderstorms. As of now this appears to be a low-end risk due to many factors which I’ll go into much more detail later on in this post.

Round 4

All this rain will add up over 2 inches here in the region by the end of the week. Because of this, flooding will be a concern heading into the weekend. Here is a look at how much rain is possible Wednesday through Friday.

Kyle Rain Totals

Going back to the severe weather threat on Thursday. The chance to see a few strong to severe storms doesn’t look like it will arrive until Thursday night as an area of low pressure with this storm system moves in.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

This is still over two days away but based on the data I’m seeing today, our risk here in West Central Ohio appears to be pretty low. Here are a few things I’ll be paying close attention to over the next few days.

1) The main energy from this system will move through Thursday night and early Friday. When you look for severe weather, ideal timing of a system is during the afternoon and evening hours so it can take full advantage of daytime heating. This will not be the case on Thursday or Friday.

2) Will substantial moisture make it far enough north to fuel storms in West Central Ohio? The short answer to this is, yes! Dew point values exceeding 55 degrees will likely be felt here in West Central Ohio Thursday night and Friday morning. Dew points approaching and passing this mark usually can provide enough fuel to power thunderstorms. Here is a look at the probabilities of dew points exceeding 55 degrees late Thursday and Friday.

55+ Dewpoints

 3) Wind Shear. Wind shear is a change in wind speed OR direction with height in the atmosphere. Probabilities for high wind shear values are impressive during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday into Arkansas, Missouri, Southern Illinois, Western Tennessee and Kentucky. Couple that wind shear with high dew points and a cold front and we’ll have an explosive atmosphere for severe weather in that region during the day on Friday.

30+kt Shear Late Thursday

As the system nears West Central Ohio, the high wind shear probabilities will drastically drop overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This is good news if you’re not a fan of severe weather.

Thursday Night Shear 30+ kt

The Bottom Line:

As of now, I’m not too worried about severe weather here in West Central Ohio Thursday night/Friday morning. However, this situation is still evolving and will bear a close watch over the coming days.

Stay connected! I’ll be sure to keep you updated in the coming days.

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

No Joke, There Is More Snow Coming Saturday!

April Fools day is next Tuesday, but this is no joke! I’m forecasting accumulating snow here in West Central Ohio for Saturday!

An area of low pressure will move out of the southwest on Saturday spreading precipitation into The Ohio Valley.

Future 1

For the first half of the day on Saturday we will likely see a mix of rain, snow and sleet here in West Central Ohio as the system moves in. Initially it looks as if any snow/sleet that falls will have a tough time sticking to the ground, but by later in the afternoon on Saturday we will likely begin to see some light accumulations.

Future 2

THE BIG QUESTION with this system tomorrow is how hard of a time the snow will have sticking to the ground? Many forecast models are showing the potential for 4+ inches of snow in the region! I simply think this is too high! Here is a look at the GFS model showing those higher totals.

GFS Future Snow

If this were the middle of winter, these totals may be a little more realistic, but its early spring! The past few days temperatures have been at or above 50 degrees! Couple that with a higher sun angle in the sky for this time of year, and I’m betting that most models are way too high on their predictions for Saturday snow.

By late evening Saturday 2 inches of wet/sloppy snow and sleet (maybe 3″ in a few spots) is a good possibility!

Kyle Snow Totals 2

This snow may indeed be shovelable by late evening Saturday! But temperatures on Sunday near 50 degrees coupled with  A LOT of sunshine should easily take care of it! For that reason I give it a FOUR on my snow scale!

Snow Meter Kyle

I’ll keep you in the loop if anything changes :)

-Kyle

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Welcome To Spring, But I’m Still Talking About Snow!

We are about a week into Spring now, but here in West Central Ohio the temperatures have been WELL below average for the past four days only topping out in the low to mid 30′s when our seasonal average is in the low 50′s.

Don’t worry though, I have said it before and I’ll say it again, this time of year is a TRANSITIONAL time. It is not at all uncommon to get a stretch of weather into the 60′s and 70′s just as it isn’t out of the ordinary to see fresh snow (just like we did on Tuesday!)

As we head into the weekend we’ll deal with a variety of weather here in West Central Ohio. We WILL warm up for Thursday and Friday, but that warmth will come with rain and even a few thunderstorms.

A warm front will lift through the region on Thursday bringing on and off rain to West Central Ohio. This likely will not be an all day event, but expect rain to begin to move into the region by the early afternoon hours.

Thursday 1

A cold front will also begin to move towards West Central Ohio into Friday morning. Along this cold front some severe weather will be possible earlier in the day, but this activity will stay well to our West.

Thursday 2

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

By the time the front passes through here in West Central Ohio any severe weather that had formed along the front will have weakened significantly or dissipated, so the threat here is very low into Friday morning. We could still however hear a few rumbles of thunder, but I expect any storms that impact West Central Ohio to stay tame.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

While it looks like we will make it through this storm without any severe weather, as we head into April and May it will become more and more of a threat. Here is a really cool graphic by the National Weather Service that shows severe weather probabilities throughout the country on a week by week basis! Really Cool Animation Showing Severe Weather Probabilities Across The Country

With on and off rain expected from early Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, we can generally anticipate about 3/10′ to 7/10″ of rain to fall during that time.

Kyle Future Rainfall

After that system departs by Friday afternoon I’ll begin to shift my attention to another one that could bring SNOW back to the region on Saturday.

Forecast models are indicating a quickly moving area of low pressure that will move just to the south of West Central Ohio early Saturday that could bring a rain snow mix.

Sat RPM

This system looks like it could have the potential to drop 1-2 inches of snow on us during the day on Saturday, but I’m VERY skeptical because of how warm it will be.

I definitely think that we’ll see some snow on Saturday, but this snow will have a tough time sticking to the ground with temperatures in the 50′s the previous two days and highs on Saturday in the low 40′s. Either way, if you were hoping the snow you saw on Tuesday was the last of the season, you might be a little disappointed on Saturday! Be sure to check back for updates, I’ll be watching!

-Kyle