After a very nice start to the week here in West Central Ohio, April showers will arrive in full force beginning late Wednesday!
The rain will be thanks to a warm front lifting out of the south toward West Central Ohio over the next three days. This front will bring several rounds of rain to the region that will really begin to add up by the time Friday rolls around.
The first round of showers will move through late tonight and early Wednesday morning, this round will be light and out of here by late morning.
Round two will arrive late Wednesday afternoon with the potential for heavier rainfall a bit higher, we may even hear some thunder.
While we may hear some thunder on Wednesday, the severe weather threat will remain well to the West of us and out into the Plains.
Round 3 will hit Thursday morning around sunrise, heavy rain with a strong thunderstorm or two is a possibility.
It’s when the main area of low pressure approaches Thursday night when we’ll see our best chance for a few severe thunderstorms. As of now this appears to be a low-end risk due to many factors which I’ll go into much more detail later on in this post.
All this rain will add up over 2 inches here in the region by the end of the week. Because of this, flooding will be a concern heading into the weekend. Here is a look at how much rain is possible Wednesday through Friday.
Going back to the severe weather threat on Thursday. The chance to see a few strong to severe storms doesn’t look like it will arrive until Thursday night as an area of low pressure with this storm system moves in.
This is still over two days away but based on the data I’m seeing today, our risk here in West Central Ohio appears to be pretty low. Here are a few things I’ll be paying close attention to over the next few days.
1) The main energy from this system will move through Thursday night and early Friday. When you look for severe weather, ideal timing of a system is during the afternoon and evening hours so it can take full advantage of daytime heating. This will not be the case on Thursday or Friday.
2) Will substantial moisture make it far enough north to fuel storms in West Central Ohio? The short answer to this is, yes! Dew point values exceeding 55 degrees will likely be felt here in West Central Ohio Thursday night and Friday morning. Dew points approaching and passing this mark usually can provide enough fuel to power thunderstorms. Here is a look at the probabilities of dew points exceeding 55 degrees late Thursday and Friday.
3) Wind Shear. Wind shear is a change in wind speed OR direction with height in the atmosphere. Probabilities for high wind shear values are impressive during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday into Arkansas, Missouri, Southern Illinois, Western Tennessee and Kentucky. Couple that wind shear with high dew points and a cold front and we’ll have an explosive atmosphere for severe weather in that region during the day on Friday.
As the system nears West Central Ohio, the high wind shear probabilities will drastically drop overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This is good news if you’re not a fan of severe weather.
The Bottom Line:
As of now, I’m not too worried about severe weather here in West Central Ohio Thursday night/Friday morning. However, this situation is still evolving and will bear a close watch over the coming days.
Stay connected! I’ll be sure to keep you updated in the coming days.