What’s All This Talk About A “Monster Christmas Storm”?

It’s probably no surprise that one of my ALL TIME favorite movies is “Groundhog Day” starring Bill Murray. If you haven’t seen it, the movie revolves around a local weather man (Bill Murray) who is doing a special report on Groundhog Day in Pennsylvania. After Bill Murray gives his special report, which he is not very thrilled about to begin with, he and his team travel back to their TV station but are surprised when they run into a blizzard and are forced to return to Punxsutawney to spend the night. The movie REALLY gets funny when Bill Murray wakes up the following morning to find that it is once again Groundhog Day and he is forced to live it over and over again, day after day doing the same weather report! If you haven’t seen it, you’re really missing out!

Groundhog

Ok, you might be wondering what the heck kind of point is Kyle trying to make here? The point I’m trying to make is that with EVERY possible winter storm now, I see the same thing. I see claims of a mega storm over a week out, I see outrageous hype simply to garner likes and shares on social media. The latest example of this has been with news of a possible storm this Christmas.

Here is another quick lesson on why a major winter storm can’t accurately be predicted a week out and why anything you see on social media right now is pure speculation.

For example. Let me show you YESTERDAY MORNING’S run of the GFS model. What you’re looking at below is a very deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes on Christmas Eve. This would have meant maybe 2 or 3 inches of snow and VERY windy conditions here leading into Christmas Day.

Previous GFS Run

 

Now let’s look at THIS MORNING’S run of the GFS. What you’re looking at here is an elongated low that looks more like it could be taking shape over the NE coast rather than the Great Lakes. This low is MUCH weaker than the low from the previous run and for us, would only mean maybe an inch or two of snow Christmas Eve and MUCH less wind. Do you see the difference a day can make when you’re still about a week away from the actual storm?

GFS XMAS EVE

 So here’s the bottom line

Is there a chance we could see some snow making for a white Christmas? Sure! Will this end up being a “Monster Storm” for us here in West Central Ohio? It’s still WAY too early to tell, but my hunch says probably not. Forecast models will continue to fluctuate quite a bit over the next 2 or 3 days and it won’t be until Sunday or Monday when they will finally begin to really pin down the track of the storm. What these models are telling me though is that we are indeed anticipating a much more active weather pattern to end 2014 :) Just remember, any calls for a “Christmas Storm” at this point is probably just hype.

-Kyle

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A Colder And Snowier Weather Pattern Headed Our Way?

In my last post I highlighted the fact that for the past three years here in Lima the beginning of December has been void of snow here in West Central Ohio. With Christmas less than a week and a half away, I’m already getting the question “will we see a white Christmas this year?” That question is still tough to answer with the holiday being over a week away, but the weather pattern is looking as if it will begin to shift towards cooler and potentially more snowy conditions later this week.

One thing is for sure, we certainly can’t expect to hold onto 50 degree weather (though I’m sure many of us wish we could) through the entire month of December. By the end of the week, a more active jet stream will look to settle into much of the country bringing colder air out of the north and increasing the frequency of storm potential leading into Christmas week.

JETSTREAM

The fact that a more active jet stream is anticipated by this weekend and into next week, along with the expected colder weather with temperatures into the 30’s once again leads me to believe that the chance for snow next week will be remarkably higher than what we have seen so far this December.

Looking at some of the forecast model trends today, there is will definitely be an increased chance for snow into the holiday week. REMEMBER, Christmas is still over a week away, but the forecasts are beginning to point to snow potential next week. A couple of models in particular are showing the potential for snow on Christmas Eve. It is still way to early to say how much but just know that the chance will be there! Here is a look at both the GFS and the European model that show a POTENTIAL storm moving through the Midwest at some point next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Euro Christmas Eve

GFS Christmas Eve

Both of these models have been consistent as of late in showing the potential for accumulating snow in the days leading up to the Christmas Holiday. AGAIN, it is still way to early to pin down snow amounts, I just wanted to let you know that the potential is there to see snow with this anticipated weather pattern shift :)

You know I’ll keep a close eye on it!

-Kyle

You can always track incoming storms on our weather app too!!!!

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No Snow For Our December, So Far….

To me, the month of December has always been synonymous with snow. But that hasn’t been the case recently Here in West Central Ohio. No accumulating snow has dropped this month here in Lima through the first ten days of the month and it looks as if that will continue to be the trend, at least through this upcoming weekend.

But even though we haven’t had any snow so far this December, that doesn’t mean that snow will be low overall for the upcoming winter season. (remember, we’re technically not even into the winter season yet) I looked back on 2012, 2013 and 2014  here in Lima through the first 10 days of December, and surprisingly, in the last THREE years we have only had ONE inch of snow here in Lima. If you remember last winter, which I’m sure most of you do, a quiet start to December had no bearing on what ended up being a very cold and snowy season in which we saw 56 inches of total snow.

Looking at the overall weather pattern through mid December, warmer than average temperatures look to continue. Here is a look at the 8 to 14 day NWS forecast period leading up to Christmas Eve and the chance that temperatures will be above average.

814temp_new

So the probability that we’ll have a warmer than average December is looking good. But again, that doesn’t necessarily mean that will translate into January and beyond. You know I’ll be watching!

-Kyle

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A Cold November Followed By A Warm December?

12/4/2014

Could it be? It’s certainly looking that way! After some bitter cold temperatures in November with almost 5 inches of total snow here in Lima, December is looking to buck the trend of colder temperatures.

Since our extremely cold winter last season, the overall weather pattern has not changed. We moved out of last winter into a cooler than average spring, followed by a cool summer and fall. With the cold November that we had all signs were pointing once again to another very cold and possibly snowy winter, but that may not be the case.

Over the next few weeks the jet stream looks as if it will RETREAT to the north! For us, this would mean above average temperatures and calmer weather. Without an active jet stream in the region, there simply won’t be much potential for any big storms that could bring either a lot of rain OR snow. Take a look at where models have been projecting the jet into the middle of December.

Jet Stream Mid December

The darker colors on the map indicate where the active areas of the jet stream will be, up and into Canada, which is also where the colder temperatures will look to stay.

It’s looking more and more likely that this pattern will play out over the next few weeks, and if this happens that would mean that temperatures would generally settle around 40 to 50 degrees for daytime highs. Here is the 8 to 14 day outlook from the NWS that further drives home the point that there is a good chance much of the country would be warmer than average into mid December.

814temp_new

REMEMBER though! Our December last year wasn’t particularly cold or snowy either. It wasn’t until January that we REALLY felt winters wrath!!!! This is something to watch for sure!

-Kyle

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West Central Ohio Weekend Snow Chance

The past couple of days you might have heard me talk about the potential for accumulating snow over the weekend, I wanted to give a quick update now that some of the latest data has come in.

We’ll have two chances for accumulating snow this upcoming weekend, the first chance Saturday night and the second, Sunday night. Of the two, it looks as if the better shot at accumulating snow will be on Sunday night. Here is a look at some of the graphics.

First off, almost all of the forecast models have now backed off on the idea that we could see an inch or two of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cold front will be moving in out of the west, and out ahead of it, light snow will develop and spread through the great lakes.

Future Sat Night

As this area of light snow moves in through Sunday morning, it looks as if the potential for accumulating snow will be focused more north of West Central Ohio. As I mentioned earlier, most of the forecast models agree. Here is a look at a few of them showing snowfall through Sunday morning.

Here is the RPM

RPM Future Snow

The EURO

EURO Future Snow

And the GFS

GFS Future Snow

It looks like a dusting to MAYBE a half inch of snow for most Saturday night into Sunday morning.

So now onto Sunday night…..

As of now, most of the day Sunday looks snow free with the exception of a few light flurries. But by Sunday night the aforementioned cold front will move into Western Ohio and begin to pull up some more moisture out of the south.

Future Wide

This will bring a better chance at snow to the region simply because the front will have more moisture to work with Sunday night. Here is a closer look at where models project that snow to be around midnight Sunday.

Depending on how fast this front moves through will determine how much, if any snow we get. If the front stays on its current pace it looks as if we could easily get an inch, maybe 2 inches into Monday morning. If the front slows down, we could possibly see an inch more, and if it speeds up we could maybe just see a dusting. It’s all about timing! For now, here is a look at the chance parts of West Central Ohio could see an inch or snow or more from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. Notice the better chances are generally south and east of Lima.

Sunday Night Snowfall

The bottom line is that I believe the better chance to see an inch or so of accumulating snow will be on Sunday night, NOT Saturday night. We’ll be sure to keep you updated through the weekend! And REMEMBER, you can track snow on our weather app :)

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Weather Buzz Words To Avoid! My Personal Reason For A No Hype Approach To The Weather

Ask anyone who knows me well, I have been crazy about the weather since a VERY young age. But what many of you might not know is how that love of weather was eventually cultivated. Simply put, from about 3 or 4 years old through most of my elementary school years (maybe even middle school)  I was absolutely scared to death of thunderstorms and tornadoes. And it wasn’t just your typical scared, like I’m just going to worry for a few minutes scared, it was absolutely frozen in fear all day long scared if I knew thunderstorms or severe weather were possible. This isn’t something I like to freely admit, but it plays a HUGE role in how I look to communicate weather now in my adult life.

If you havent figured it out by now, it was that fear of bad weather that led me to read anything and EVERYTHING I could get my hands on about the weather when I was a kid, it seriously was an obsession.  Learning about the weather led me to better understand it, and through that education and understanding my fears faded away!

When I sound the alarm, I want people to listen. In my 8 years in the business one of my CORE beliefs is that if you don’t go around yelling “the sky is falling” people will eventually trust you and your forecasts. Unfortunately this takes time, and more and more in this industry people want things now, we want clicks now and we want things shared, you guessed it, NOW! It’s simple to see, the more doom and gloom you can be with your weather forecasts, the quicker you can build an audience. I wholeheartedly reject this idea. Why you may ask? Because I simply put myself in MY shoes, when I was a kid. How would 10-year-old Kyle react to all this hype talk that can so easily be seen and shared on the internet? Trust me, I can tell you that it would have absolutely made me lose my mind! In a way, I’m kind of glad I grew up during a time without the internet, I would have driven myself nuts with all the doom and gloom talk that’s out there in the weather world today.

So basically, it’s personal to me. If I have to talk about severe weather or that big snow storm headed our way, I’m always going to try to do it in a calm manner. In the back of my head I’m always talking to 10-year-old Kyle, and trust me, I don’t want to give him any more anxiety over the weather than he already has :)

So with that said, you may have heard of some “extreme cold” weather headed our way next week. Forecast models point towards temperatures about 10 to 20 degrees below normal by Wednesday of next week. Sure, it’s going to be cold for this time of the year, but it’s November, it’s going to get cold! Just for kicks, here is a list of terms you may hear over the next week (if you already haven’t) that may indicate to you that things may be getting hyped up :)

Kyle Buzz Words

Even though I’m a little embarrassed at how scared I really was when I was a kid, I felt it necessary to share this story with you, especially headed into the Winter. The weather will be what it will be, and you can be sure that I’ll be working my best to give you a straight forward forecast.

-Kyle

 

 

Get Ready, The Worst Buzz Term In Weather Is Headed Our Way!

Maybe you have heard by now, meteorologists around the country are throwing around the news that the ominous Polar Vortex could be headed our way once again! And this time, it’s coming in NOVEMBER?

Viewer Photo 2

Before I go on, let me refresh your memory on what exactly the Polar Vortex is. The Polar Vortex is a persistent cyclonic circulation, usually in the high latitudes that takes place in the upper levels of the troposphere, or near the jet stream. Basically, VERY high up in the sky. The Polar Vortex is nothing new, it is always there and usually intensifies in the wintertime.

When you hear meteorologists refer to the Polar Vortex, know that this is nothing new. What they are referring to is a PIECE of the broad circulation that breaks off and can meander its way as far south as the United States. For us, this typically means well below average temperatures.

So back to my original picture…..

Viewer Photo 2

What will we ever do when (and if) a piece of this Polar Vortex makes it this far south next week?

Temperatures will probably only top out in the 30’s! Oh no! It’s the middle of November in OHIO, it couldn’t actually be in the 30’s could it?

The short answer to the above question is YES! And, this also brings to light my biggest beef with the blatant overuse of this lame weather buzz word. Since the massive overuse of this term began last winter, people have come to associate it with extreme cold! Don’t get me wrong, last winter was extremely cold, but it won’t be extremely cold next week! Sure, it will be about 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year, but that’s what I call a cold spell! We won’t see anything NEAR our 10 to 15 below zero temperatures that the last “Polar Vortex” brought us. So you see, no two Polar Vortexes are created equal. One could bring highs well below zero and the next could bring highs in the mid 30’s. To me, that’s confusing!

I could go on and on about why I hate the term “Polar Vortex” but I just wanted to let you know what it actually is and NOT to be scared of it. It’s just a stretch of cold November weather, and that’s that. Don’t expect to hear me using this term on air anytime soon :)

-Kyle

Friday Snow Forecast For West Central Ohio

Let me start off by saying this, don’t worry, it is NOT time to break out those shovels quite yet! But we will likely be seeing snowflakes here in West Central Ohio by the end of the day on Friday!

A cold front that will move through Friday morning will be the focus for a shot of much colder air that will circulate in the region. At first, this front will bring scattered showers to Ohio during the day. But as temperatures begin to cool into the upper 30’s by Friday evening, we will very likely see some snow showers here in West Central Ohio.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Any snow that falls late Friday afternoon and evening will have a very tough time sticking to the ground. We could end up seeing 1/4″ maybe 1/2″ of snow on grassy surfaces, but I would be VERY surprised to see any snow stick to roads, sidewalks or driveways. Forecast models seem to agree, here is a look at some of the PROJECTIONS for snow tomorrow night.

Here is the ECMWF forecast model, also referred to as the EURO. This shows close to an inch of accumulation in some spots by Saturday morning.

EURO Future Snow

Here is the GFS for the same timeframe.

GFS Future Snow

And here is the RPM.

RPM Future Snow

I’m going more with the GFS, it’s right in the middle of most models showing about 1/4″ to 1/2″ of snow possible by Saturday morning! Again, I doubt this will stick on hard surfaces! We’re also going to feel the coldest temperatures we have felt so far this Fall season with overnight lows on Friday and Saturday night in the upper 20’s! Bundle up everyone!

-Kyle

 

Thursday Trick Or Treat Forecast For West Central Ohio!

Who’s ready for loads of candy? Trick Or Treat is upon us and overall the weather looks like it will cooperate. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side on Thursday, but unlike Wednesday, we’ll lose the breeze that we had with winds dying down during the day on Thursday. Here is a look at the projected wind by about 6 o-clock Thursday evening, they are looking light and out of the WNW.

FUTURE WINDS

It looks as if we’ll be able to see some sunshine, especially for the first half of the day. But by the time Trick Or Treat begins, we’ll likely see an increase in clouds working into the region. The good news is that it is expected to be dry! Showers won’t accompany the clouds until later Thursday night and Friday. Here is a look at the PROJECTED Satellite/Radar along with temperatures at 5 PM.

DMA Future Cast And Temps

And here is a look at the PROJECTED Satellite/Radar by about 8 PM. Note the increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Future 2

And here is my forecast!

2009 WSI Halloween

Here is our list of Trick Or Treat times for West Central Ohio

REMEMBER! If you havent yet, please check out our FREE weather app! It’s going to come in handy for tracking rain and eventually SNOW as we head into the winter! Just search “YNN Storm Authority” on your mobile device’s app store!

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Big Warm Up Followed By MUCH Colder Weather AND Snow?

We broke a record high today in Lima! Temperatures nearly made it to 80 degrees in what felt like an early Summer day.

Record Heat

But after a cold front moves through on Tuesday bringing us rain, a slow and steady drop in temperatures will be felt the remainder of the week. But it will take more than the front that moves through Tuesday to cool us down to temperatures cold enough for possible snow. Once the front passes by Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will settle into the 50’s both Wednesday and Thursday before an area of low pressure drops out of Canada Thursday night and Friday.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

This low will filter in the coldest temperatures we have felt so far this Fall season with highs in the 40’s expected both Friday and Saturday. Forecast models have also been coming into pretty good agreement that temperature profiles in the atmosphere could be cold enough for some light snow during the day on Friday. When I ask myself will it be cold enough to snow, I almost always first look at where the “540 Thickness Line” will be. This is a commonly used threshold by meteorologists in determining where the boundary will be that separates rain from snow! For MUCH more on that, please read this What Exactly Is The 540 Thickness Line?

OK, I’m assuming you read my past blog post that explains what the 540 Line is. By Friday when the low pictured above drops into the Great Lakes, it will pull down some VERY cold temperatures. Here is a look at where the 540 thickness line is forecasted to be from both the GFS and the ECMWF (European) models.

ECMWF Thickness Friday

ECMWF Thickness Friday

GFS Thickness Friday

GFS Thickness Friday

With both models in good agreement that the 540 line will be well South of West Central Ohio, I can now say, with more confidence, that if any precipitation falls on Friday there is a good chance it could be in the form of snow.

So now I have to ask myself, will there be any precipitation in the first place? Forecast models are also showing the possibility that precipitation will be possible Friday. Here is a look at both the GFS and EURO that shows light precipitation being a possibility Friday afternoon and evening.

GFS Precip

Euro Precip

So what do I think?

It’s only Monday but signs are definitely pointing towards the fact that if some precipitation can fall on Friday it has the potential to be in the form of snow. The above area of low pressure is basically a clipper system that would just bring light rain/snow to the region on Friday if forecast models continue on the path they are on. IF we did see any snow it would likely be VERY light and probably not accumulating. But this is definitely something I’ll be watching all week long!

REMEMBER you can also download out weather app by searching for “YNN Storm Authority” on your mobile device!

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-Kyle