Weekend Severe Weather Threat

A much more warm and moist air mass will settle into West Central Ohio this upcoming weekend with a couple of chances for severe thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday!

Most of the day on Saturday will probably be dry with just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms expected in the region thanks to a warm front lifting through. It’s that warm front that by the end up the day will bring warmer temperatures into the mid 80’s along with rising dew points well into the 60’s. Some very high CAPE values/instability will build into the region by the evening hours.

Some extremely high CAPE values potentially above 4,000 j/kg are possible by about 4 or 5 PM over parts of Illinois and Indiana.

Late Saturday CAPE

The latest models show a possible Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) developing in this are of very high CAPE late in the day on Saturday. This MCS will likely track across Indiana late evening and then into the Western half of Ohio by sunset potentially.

Future 1

Most forecast models (including the above image) show this MCS diving just to the south of West Central Ohio. But this will be something to watch because if it shifts another 50-100 miles or so North, we could potentially be in for a pretty good damaging wind storm here late evening. But for now, thankfully, it looks as if that threat will stay just to our south. With that said, we still have the chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio heading into the overnight hours.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

The chance for severe weather on Sunday will be highly dependent on what happens on Saturday night. Basically if we can clear out and see some sunshine on Sunday after Saturday night’s activity we may be able to see the atmosphere destabilize enough to see a few strong to severe storms develop Sunday afternoon with a second cold front moving through. Forecast models are pointing to that scenario with CAPE vales once again on the rise into Sunday afternoon.

Sunday CAPE

By about 3 or 4PM models show that second cold front moving into the region. This would be an ideal time for showers and thunderstorms to develop during peak daytime heating.

Future 2

But with that said I’m still a bit skeptical based on the fact that we may not clear out a whole lot from Saturday night’s storms that roll through. The details for Sunday’s severe weather chance is still a bit foggy, but once we see how storms play out Saturday night we should be able to paint a better picture of what could happen on Sunday.

We’ll be watching this weekend! I’ll have all the latest tonight at 10 and 11 and Allison will be in on Saturday for further coverage!

ALSO! This weekend would be a GREAT time to have our new weather app! It’s free, check it out. I use it all the time to check the latest radar and track storms when I’m away from my desk!

APP PIC

Have a great weekend everyone!

-Kyle

 

A Very Short Lived Warm Up!

Believe it or not, we have yet to hit 90 degrees here in Lima a SINGLE time so far this July! That could be changing tomorrow, but if we don’t get there on Tuesday, the chances are looking slim for the remainder of the month. Not only will it be hot on Tuesday, but it will also be very humid with dew point temperatures expected to reach up into the low 70’s during the day! That would give us possible heat indices approaching the 95 to 100 degree mark during the afternoon and early evening. Here are a look at the predicted dew points by late tomorrow afternoon.

Future Dew Points

As I mentioned earlier, if we don’t hit 90 on Tuesday, it’s possible we may go the entire month of July without reaching the milestone! A strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning that will drop our temperatures 10 to 15 degrees by the end of the week!

The front won’t begin to affect the region until after sunset on Tuesday, and even then, we’ll probably just see an increase in clouds as it approaches. By Tuesday evening at 11 PM the cold front will be well off to our NW.

Future 1

Since the front is moving through overnight I’m not concerned about severe weather. We’ll probably hear some thunder late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning though.

Future 2

By early afternoon on Wednesday the cold front will likely be through and to the south and east of us. This should keep our best rain chance focused through the early afternoon on Wednesday with clearing possible late in the day.

Future 3

I’m not holding my breath on this front either as far as rainfall is concerned. Forecast models are generally showing less than a quarter of an inch by the end of the day on Wednesday.

Kyle Future Rainfall

Stay cool tomorrow everyone!

-Kyle

Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Weekend

After a couple of beautiful days here in West Central Ohio it’s time to introduce another chance for storms in the forecast, and unfortunately this time its coming over the weekend :(

We’ll start off on Saturday with the chance of a few isolated showers (maybe a rumble of thunder) as a warm front lifts north through the region. I would think that these showers should remain pretty isolated in the region.

Future 1

By late in the day the warm front will lift far enough north that it should keep any showers or thunderstorms confined to the north with it. So overall, MOST, if not all of our Saturday should be dry with temperatures in the mid 80’s expected! It’s going to be a little more hot and humid!

Future 2

It’s a cold front moving through on Sunday that has sparked some concern for severe weather here in Ohio. First, here is a look at the NWS’s Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for severe weather on Sunday

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Ok, now back to the cold front! This front will begin to move in early in the day and will likely bring with it widely scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. We’ll probably start the day off on Sunday on a wet note.

Future 3

As things destabilize a bit later in the day a broken line of potentially strong to severe storms are expected to develop along the cold front as it moves south. As you can see here by the latest model run of our Futurecast, it looks as if this line of storms may indeed develop just to the south of us, more towards the Dayton area.

Future 4

If the cold front moves through by the afternoon hours as shown in the pictures above, our chance for severe weather would be pretty low. However, if the front slows down a bit, it would be passing through West Central Ohio during peak daytime hours and thus would give us a much better chance for severe storms. It’s still a bit too early to say, but it’s something to watch for sure.

As of now I’m going to stick with our Futurecast model showing a quicker passage of a cold front on Sunday. That would give us a very good chance for rain through about 2 or 3 PM with dwindling chances later in the day. In this scenario the threat for severe weather would be pretty low. Here is a look at my break down of severe weather threats for Sunday.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

Again, I’ll be watching to see if the cold front slows a bit and gives us a better chance for a few severe thunderstorms.

One thing is for sure, once the cold front passes to our South we’ll begin to feel a MUCH cooler air mass settle in. Monday will still be around 80 for a high, but by Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures will STRUGGLE to break the 70 degree mark! This is thanks to a deep southern dive in the jet stream over the Great Lakes region that will allow these colder temperatures to filter in out of the north.

notpolarvortex

You may have heard of this as the Polar Vortex making a return. I personally hate that terminology, especially in July (Here’s why) One thing is for sure though, temperatures next week will likely be about 15 degrees below average for this time of year.

I hope everyone has a great weekend!

Again, if you haven’t downloaded our Weather App you should definitely check it out! It’s a wonderful tool for tracking storms and getting our latest forecasts!

APP PIC

-Kyle

 

 

 

Why Are We Talking About A Polar Vortex In July?

When I think of the term “Polar Vortex” I think of conditions we had back in January. Temperatures 10 below zero, ice EVERYWHERE and wind chills from 30 to 40 below! All we needed were some resident Polar Bears (Could ONU or Hardin Northern help us out?) and we would have been all set! So why am I hearing this buzz word being thrown around again, in JULY? The answer is simply that, because it’s a buzz word(s) that generates hype! Before I go on, here is a good explainer as to what the definition of a Polar Vortex is thanks to the NWS.

Viewer Photo 4

Here is a look at what is very likely headed our way next Tuesday/Wednesday.

300 mb

That right there is a BIG dip in the jet stream that will bring us temperatures WELL below average for this time of year! Here is a look at a chart from the NWS that shows the probability of BELOW AVERAGE temperatures for the next 6 to 10 days. REMEMBER, the average high for this time of year is in the mid 80’s!

610temp_new

So watch out West Central Ohio, the big bad “polar vortex” is going to bring us…..drumroll please….FRIGID temperatures in the upper 60’s and low 70’s! BRRRR!!!! Ok, I’ll admit, technically it is a piece of the polar vortex that will break off and give us some very cool temperatures. But on average this is also the warmest time of the year, so should the term polar vortex even be used? In my opinion, no!

Call me old school, but this is something that can only lead to unrealistic expectations. As I mentioned before, I don’t think I’m very far off when I say that when someone hears that term, at the very least, they might think of snow. Are we going to see snow? Heck no! This is nothing more than a big cool down in the middle of July thanks to a far southward traveling jet stream. So while you may hear the term Polar Vortex in the coming days, I can guarantee you that you won’t hear it from me! This is simply using buzz words for the sake of using buzz words and nothing more. End rant.

-Kyle

 

Severe Storms Today But Better Weather Ahead!

Today we had a first for 2014 here in West Central Ohio. The National Weather Service issued their very first tornado warning here in the viewing area of the year. The warning came with an early morning thunderstorm over Shelby and Southern Auglaize County that was exhibiting strong signs of rotation. This storm put down several tree limbs near Fort Loramie, but thankfully didn’t do any other damage and likely did not produce a tornado.

Early Radar

This cluster of thunderstorms eventually grew into a MUCH larger line of severe storms that put down (as of this writing) Three confirmed tornadoes in Northeast Ohio including TWO confirmed tornadoes in Medina County and one in Mahoning County. Here was a look at the line around 2PM Tuesday afternoon.

Midday Radar

Furthermore, this line continued to race across Pennsylvania and ultimately towards the New York City area with severe thunderstorm warnings practically along the ENTIRE line, over 400 miles long!

Late Radar

THE GOOD NEWS is that we’ll really calm down for the second half of the week with much calmer and comfortable weather. A big reason for this is thanks to lower dew points that are expected to settle in on Wednesday.

Future Dew Points

This is a big improvement from our 70 degree plus dew points from Monday!

High pressure will accompany the cooler readings over the next few days keeping conditions calm through the end of the workweek.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

-Kyle

 

Muggy Monday Ahead With Storms Possible Into Tuesday

Temperatures on Monday will likely near the 90 degree mark here in West Central Ohio, and this heat is going to come with some VERY muggy conditions outside! Dew point temperatures to begin the new week will likely exceed the 70 degree mark into the afternoon hours on Monday.

Future Dew Points

And when you couple readings like that with temperatures near 90 degrees, you’ve got a very soupy air mass in place with heat index values likely reaching at or above 95 degrees across much of the Buckeye State.

With that kind of heat and humidity in place, pop up showers and thunderstorms could develop into the evening hours here in West Central Ohio, but it’s honestly not something I’m very concerned about during the day. Our Futurecast model shows that potential here by about 6 or 7 Monday evening.

Monday PM Future

A MUCH more organized squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop late evening tomorrow across parts of Iowa and Illinois and move East. It’s for this reason that NW Ohio is right on the edge of a “Slight Risk” area for severe thunderstorms on Monday.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

But the timing for this anticipated line of showers and thunderstorms will NOT be favorable for severe weather here in West Central Ohio. You can see here, the latest short-term models don’t even have the line of thunderstorms into Indiana until well after midnight.

Monday Night Future

By the time the line reaches the Ohio/Indiana border it will be in a MUCH weakened state.

Tuesday AM Future

As of now it’s pretty clear the timing on this system is off with this system for any severe weather here. It’s something I’ll definitely be paying attention too on Monday, but for now I’m not too concerned. I’ll keep you updated, stay cool Monday!

-Kyle

2014 Severe Weather Season, So Far…

I’ll get right to the point, it’s been slow for severe weather thus far this year here in West Central Ohio! (everyone knock on wood right now!) As a matter of fact, according to the NWS office in Northern Indiana (they warn storms for Van Wert, Paulding, Defiance, Putnam, Henry and Allen counties) as of the middle of June, 2014 was on pace to be a record low year for severe weather!

NWS Slow Start

Statistically speaking, this last week of June is typically when West Central Ohio has the best chance for severe weather. As we head into the beginning of July the chance gradually begins to taper off. Here is a graphic from the NWS that shows the probability for severe weather within 25 miles of any point for the last week of June.

NWS Severe Chances

As I mentioned, once we head into July the chance begins to drop off.

NWS July Chance

If you want to see more on our chance for severe weather on a week to week basis, check out this link here.

Here is another cool link that paints a more nation wide picture of how the 2014 severe weather season has panned out so far. 2014 NWS Severe Weather Summary

It looks as if the rest of June will be pretty calm as far as severe weather is concerned with just pop up variety showers and thunderstorms expected into this weekend. Anytime there are storms in the region our new weather app is a great way to track storms!

APP PIC

Have a great weekend everyone!

-Kyle

 

 

 

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday

The heat is on here in West Central Ohio with a high today here in Lima of 93 degrees! We’ll likely top out around 90 once again on Wednesday but unlike today, we’ll see a legit chance for some severe weather developing in the region. A cold front will continue to slowly shift south during the day on Wednesday bringing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region by the afternoon and evening hours. Any storms that develop during this time could become strong to severe especially with CAPE values over 2,000 j/jk expected. Here is a look at the SREF ensemble probabilities of CAPE over 2,000 j/kg tomorrow afternoon and evening. Almost all of Ohio has a better than 50% chance of achieving CAPE values that high. That would provide more than enough fuel to initiate storms.

Wednesday CAPE

Unlike today, we’ll actually have a front in the region to provide a trigger for potential storms. There is the possibility that at some point during the late afternoon and evening Wednesday an MCS type system could develop and move through. This has been shown in the latest RPM model runs. Here is a look at what could POTENTIALLY be moving through by late evening tomorrow around 10 PM.

Wednesday Future

In this case my biggest concerns tomorrow late afternoon and evening would be hail and damaging wind potential, the threat for an isolated tornado would be pretty low. Flooding could also become a concern for any slower moving cells that develop.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

Here is the NWS Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for severe weather on Wednesday.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! Keep an eye to the sky and stay cool. Don’t forget our free weather app if you haven’t downloaded it yet! It’s a great tool for tracking storms!

APP PIC

-Kyle

 

 

Welcome Back, 90 Degree Heat!

This is all about perspective for me, this past winter here in West Central Ohio was a rough one. I made a personal pact with myself that I wasn’t going to complain, but embrace any heat that may come our way this Spring/Summer! Well, that heat is here and it looks as if Tuesday will be our first 90 degree day of 2014!

With a strong area of high pressure off to our south, heat and humidity will continue to pump into the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday. Highs should be able to top out in the low 90’s with any showers and thunderstorms likely staying off to the north of us. Along with the heat this set up will allow for dew points to rise near 70 degrees making for a very hot/humid day here in West Central Ohio. With all of this heat and humidity in place, there will be A LOT of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in the atmosphere. We’ll likely see CAPE values exceeding 3,000 to 4,000 j/jk, this is very high!

Tuesday CAPE

But even with this POTENTIAL energy available, you ALWAYS need something to be the trigger for storms to develop. In this case, that trigger is a cold front that will reside well to our north on Tuesday.

Tuesday Future

By Wednesday the cold front will SLOWLY push further south bringing a little better of a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to West Central Ohio. But even with the front closer, it’s still up in the air to how far the strong area of high pressure will allow the front to advance.

Wednesday Future

IF storms can develop on Wednesday a few of them could be on the strong side, but they will likely be pretty scattered. This system will continue to barely move into Wednesday and Thursday mostly because of a very stagnant upper level pattern. An upper level ridge of high pressure will maintain its hold over the Great Lakes, and with that in place, this system will continue at a snail’s pace.

Upper Ridge

By Thursday and Friday this upper level ridge will break down allowing for the front to finally move into West Central Ohio, that’s when we’ll see the best chance for rain in my opinion.

End Of The Week Ridge

This is a pattern very typical of summer time and it’s certainly going to feel like it outside this week! Stay cool!

-Kyle

 

Do Storms Sometimes Appear To Break Up Over West Central Ohio?

I get this question ALL the time, why do storms appear to break up when they hit Lima?You may be surprised to know that this phenomena has nothing to do with industry here. Instead, it might just be because we can’t see it!

A very nice graphic posted by the National Weather Service Wilmington Branch today is a GREAT explainer how radar beams function. Here is the graphic that shows how the radar image can drastically chance based on how far a storm is from the radar site.

NWS Wilmington Radar

Distance from radar sites is something that REALLY affects us here in West Central Ohio everyday. As the radar beam shoots out from the Doppler Radar site it spreads out because of the curvature of the earth (see picture above) so the beam can hopefully scan a potential storm from top to bottom. But what happens when a storm is almost 100 miles away from a radar site? Unfortunately the radar beam misses part of the storm, in our case here in Lima that means that roughly the bottom nine to ten thousand feet of a storm can’t be seen! That’s basically from the surface up to 2 miles in the sky that is missed by radar here in Lima.

Here is a look at NWS Doppler Radar sites covering West Central Ohio and their distances from Lima.

Radar Sites

Because of this distance, storms could appear as if they are breaking up at times over this area but could actually still be there, they just can’t be picked up on radar! The good thing about this is that in MOST cases, severe thunderstorms are easily over 30 or 40 thousand feet tall in the sky! Storms of this magnitude are easily seen on radar, even over 100 miles away. Many of these severe storms can produce strong mesocyclones that are easily picked up on radar as well which can be a precursor to a funnel cloud or even a tornado. In the case where there is strong rotation throughout a thunderstorm from nine to ten thousand feet and above, a tornado warning could likely be issued based on the assumption that even though radar can’t see much below 9 thousand feet, there is a very good possibility that rotation extends close to the surface even though that can’t be seen on radar. On the contrary, there are times when the rotation is strictly in low levels less than 2 miles from the surface. A good example of this was just a few weeks ago when several outflow boundaries interacted with each other creating some low-level spin that spun up a brief “Gustnado” in SW Putnam county. Radar sites covering West Central Ohio would never pick this up in their scans, it’s just too low to the ground.

So what can be done to remedy this?

Unfortunately not much for now. Doppler Radars are expensive, VERY expensive! There are some TV stations across the country that actually have their own radar sites, but they are few and far between and even then they are not NEARLY as powerful as the radar sites that the NWS maintains.

For the NWS meteorologists warning storms in this area, this is no easy task. And in my opinion they have quite the challenge in doing so but do it very well!

Just thought I would share this little tid bit with you all! Hope you find it as interesting as I do.

-Kyle