West Central Ohio Weekend Snow Chance

The past couple of days you might have heard me talk about the potential for accumulating snow over the weekend, I wanted to give a quick update now that some of the latest data has come in.

We’ll have two chances for accumulating snow this upcoming weekend, the first chance Saturday night and the second, Sunday night. Of the two, it looks as if the better shot at accumulating snow will be on Sunday night. Here is a look at some of the graphics.

First off, almost all of the forecast models have now backed off on the idea that we could see an inch or two of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. A cold front will be moving in out of the west, and out ahead of it, light snow will develop and spread through the great lakes.

Future Sat Night

As this area of light snow moves in through Sunday morning, it looks as if the potential for accumulating snow will be focused more north of West Central Ohio. As I mentioned earlier, most of the forecast models agree. Here is a look at a few of them showing snowfall through Sunday morning.

Here is the RPM

RPM Future Snow

The EURO

EURO Future Snow

And the GFS

GFS Future Snow

It looks like a dusting to MAYBE a half inch of snow for most Saturday night into Sunday morning.

So now onto Sunday night…..

As of now, most of the day Sunday looks snow free with the exception of a few light flurries. But by Sunday night the aforementioned cold front will move into Western Ohio and begin to pull up some more moisture out of the south.

Future Wide

This will bring a better chance at snow to the region simply because the front will have more moisture to work with Sunday night. Here is a closer look at where models project that snow to be around midnight Sunday.

Depending on how fast this front moves through will determine how much, if any snow we get. If the front stays on its current pace it looks as if we could easily get an inch, maybe 2 inches into Monday morning. If the front slows down, we could possibly see an inch more, and if it speeds up we could maybe just see a dusting. It’s all about timing! For now, here is a look at the chance parts of West Central Ohio could see an inch or snow or more from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. Notice the better chances are generally south and east of Lima.

Sunday Night Snowfall

The bottom line is that I believe the better chance to see an inch or so of accumulating snow will be on Sunday night, NOT Saturday night. We’ll be sure to keep you updated through the weekend! And REMEMBER, you can track snow on our weather app :)

APP PIC

 

 

Weather Buzz Words To Avoid! My Personal Reason For A No Hype Approach To The Weather

Ask anyone who knows me well, I have been crazy about the weather since a VERY young age. But what many of you might not know is how that love of weather was eventually cultivated. Simply put, from about 3 or 4 years old through most of my elementary school years (maybe even middle school)  I was absolutely scared to death of thunderstorms and tornadoes. And it wasn’t just your typical scared, like I’m just going to worry for a few minutes scared, it was absolutely frozen in fear all day long scared if I knew thunderstorms or severe weather were possible. This isn’t something I like to freely admit, but it plays a HUGE role in how I look to communicate weather now in my adult life.

If you havent figured it out by now, it was that fear of bad weather that led me to read anything and EVERYTHING I could get my hands on about the weather when I was a kid, it seriously was an obsession.  Learning about the weather led me to better understand it, and through that education and understanding my fears faded away!

When I sound the alarm, I want people to listen. In my 8 years in the business one of my CORE beliefs is that if you don’t go around yelling “the sky is falling” people will eventually trust you and your forecasts. Unfortunately this takes time, and more and more in this industry people want things now, we want clicks now and we want things shared, you guessed it, NOW! It’s simple to see, the more doom and gloom you can be with your weather forecasts, the quicker you can build an audience. I wholeheartedly reject this idea. Why you may ask? Because I simply put myself in MY shoes, when I was a kid. How would 10-year-old Kyle react to all this hype talk that can so easily be seen and shared on the internet? Trust me, I can tell you that it would have absolutely made me lose my mind! In a way, I’m kind of glad I grew up during a time without the internet, I would have driven myself nuts with all the doom and gloom talk that’s out there in the weather world today.

So basically, it’s personal to me. If I have to talk about severe weather or that big snow storm headed our way, I’m always going to try to do it in a calm manner. In the back of my head I’m always talking to 10-year-old Kyle, and trust me, I don’t want to give him any more anxiety over the weather than he already has :)

So with that said, you may have heard of some “extreme cold” weather headed our way next week. Forecast models point towards temperatures about 10 to 20 degrees below normal by Wednesday of next week. Sure, it’s going to be cold for this time of the year, but it’s November, it’s going to get cold! Just for kicks, here is a list of terms you may hear over the next week (if you already haven’t) that may indicate to you that things may be getting hyped up :)

Kyle Buzz Words

Even though I’m a little embarrassed at how scared I really was when I was a kid, I felt it necessary to share this story with you, especially headed into the Winter. The weather will be what it will be, and you can be sure that I’ll be working my best to give you a straight forward forecast.

-Kyle

 

 

Get Ready, The Worst Buzz Term In Weather Is Headed Our Way!

Maybe you have heard by now, meteorologists around the country are throwing around the news that the ominous Polar Vortex could be headed our way once again! And this time, it’s coming in NOVEMBER?

Viewer Photo 2

Before I go on, let me refresh your memory on what exactly the Polar Vortex is. The Polar Vortex is a persistent cyclonic circulation, usually in the high latitudes that takes place in the upper levels of the troposphere, or near the jet stream. Basically, VERY high up in the sky. The Polar Vortex is nothing new, it is always there and usually intensifies in the wintertime.

When you hear meteorologists refer to the Polar Vortex, know that this is nothing new. What they are referring to is a PIECE of the broad circulation that breaks off and can meander its way as far south as the United States. For us, this typically means well below average temperatures.

So back to my original picture…..

Viewer Photo 2

What will we ever do when (and if) a piece of this Polar Vortex makes it this far south next week?

Temperatures will probably only top out in the 30’s! Oh no! It’s the middle of November in OHIO, it couldn’t actually be in the 30’s could it?

The short answer to the above question is YES! And, this also brings to light my biggest beef with the blatant overuse of this lame weather buzz word. Since the massive overuse of this term began last winter, people have come to associate it with extreme cold! Don’t get me wrong, last winter was extremely cold, but it won’t be extremely cold next week! Sure, it will be about 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year, but that’s what I call a cold spell! We won’t see anything NEAR our 10 to 15 below zero temperatures that the last “Polar Vortex” brought us. So you see, no two Polar Vortexes are created equal. One could bring highs well below zero and the next could bring highs in the mid 30’s. To me, that’s confusing!

I could go on and on about why I hate the term “Polar Vortex” but I just wanted to let you know what it actually is and NOT to be scared of it. It’s just a stretch of cold November weather, and that’s that. Don’t expect to hear me using this term on air anytime soon :)

-Kyle

Friday Snow Forecast For West Central Ohio

Let me start off by saying this, don’t worry, it is NOT time to break out those shovels quite yet! But we will likely be seeing snowflakes here in West Central Ohio by the end of the day on Friday!

A cold front that will move through Friday morning will be the focus for a shot of much colder air that will circulate in the region. At first, this front will bring scattered showers to Ohio during the day. But as temperatures begin to cool into the upper 30’s by Friday evening, we will very likely see some snow showers here in West Central Ohio.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Any snow that falls late Friday afternoon and evening will have a very tough time sticking to the ground. We could end up seeing 1/4″ maybe 1/2″ of snow on grassy surfaces, but I would be VERY surprised to see any snow stick to roads, sidewalks or driveways. Forecast models seem to agree, here is a look at some of the PROJECTIONS for snow tomorrow night.

Here is the ECMWF forecast model, also referred to as the EURO. This shows close to an inch of accumulation in some spots by Saturday morning.

EURO Future Snow

Here is the GFS for the same timeframe.

GFS Future Snow

And here is the RPM.

RPM Future Snow

I’m going more with the GFS, it’s right in the middle of most models showing about 1/4″ to 1/2″ of snow possible by Saturday morning! Again, I doubt this will stick on hard surfaces! We’re also going to feel the coldest temperatures we have felt so far this Fall season with overnight lows on Friday and Saturday night in the upper 20’s! Bundle up everyone!

-Kyle

 

Thursday Trick Or Treat Forecast For West Central Ohio!

Who’s ready for loads of candy? Trick Or Treat is upon us and overall the weather looks like it will cooperate. Temperatures will continue to be on the cool side on Thursday, but unlike Wednesday, we’ll lose the breeze that we had with winds dying down during the day on Thursday. Here is a look at the projected wind by about 6 o-clock Thursday evening, they are looking light and out of the WNW.

FUTURE WINDS

It looks as if we’ll be able to see some sunshine, especially for the first half of the day. But by the time Trick Or Treat begins, we’ll likely see an increase in clouds working into the region. The good news is that it is expected to be dry! Showers won’t accompany the clouds until later Thursday night and Friday. Here is a look at the PROJECTED Satellite/Radar along with temperatures at 5 PM.

DMA Future Cast And Temps

And here is a look at the PROJECTED Satellite/Radar by about 8 PM. Note the increase in cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Future 2

And here is my forecast!

2009 WSI Halloween

Here is our list of Trick Or Treat times for West Central Ohio

REMEMBER! If you havent yet, please check out our FREE weather app! It’s going to come in handy for tracking rain and eventually SNOW as we head into the winter! Just search “YNN Storm Authority” on your mobile device’s app store!

APP PIC

Big Warm Up Followed By MUCH Colder Weather AND Snow?

We broke a record high today in Lima! Temperatures nearly made it to 80 degrees in what felt like an early Summer day.

Record Heat

But after a cold front moves through on Tuesday bringing us rain, a slow and steady drop in temperatures will be felt the remainder of the week. But it will take more than the front that moves through Tuesday to cool us down to temperatures cold enough for possible snow. Once the front passes by Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will settle into the 50’s both Wednesday and Thursday before an area of low pressure drops out of Canada Thursday night and Friday.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

This low will filter in the coldest temperatures we have felt so far this Fall season with highs in the 40’s expected both Friday and Saturday. Forecast models have also been coming into pretty good agreement that temperature profiles in the atmosphere could be cold enough for some light snow during the day on Friday. When I ask myself will it be cold enough to snow, I almost always first look at where the “540 Thickness Line” will be. This is a commonly used threshold by meteorologists in determining where the boundary will be that separates rain from snow! For MUCH more on that, please read this What Exactly Is The 540 Thickness Line?

OK, I’m assuming you read my past blog post that explains what the 540 Line is. By Friday when the low pictured above drops into the Great Lakes, it will pull down some VERY cold temperatures. Here is a look at where the 540 thickness line is forecasted to be from both the GFS and the ECMWF (European) models.

ECMWF Thickness Friday

ECMWF Thickness Friday

GFS Thickness Friday

GFS Thickness Friday

With both models in good agreement that the 540 line will be well South of West Central Ohio, I can now say, with more confidence, that if any precipitation falls on Friday there is a good chance it could be in the form of snow.

So now I have to ask myself, will there be any precipitation in the first place? Forecast models are also showing the possibility that precipitation will be possible Friday. Here is a look at both the GFS and EURO that shows light precipitation being a possibility Friday afternoon and evening.

GFS Precip

Euro Precip

So what do I think?

It’s only Monday but signs are definitely pointing towards the fact that if some precipitation can fall on Friday it has the potential to be in the form of snow. The above area of low pressure is basically a clipper system that would just bring light rain/snow to the region on Friday if forecast models continue on the path they are on. IF we did see any snow it would likely be VERY light and probably not accumulating. But this is definitely something I’ll be watching all week long!

REMEMBER you can also download out weather app by searching for “YNN Storm Authority” on your mobile device!

APP PIC

-Kyle

 

 

Partial Solar Eclipse Thursday!

A partial solar eclipse will be seen on Thursday for much of the United States, including West Central Ohio. The eclipse will begin around 5:45 in the evening and will actually be in progress while the sun sets.

Solar Eclipse Graphic

It’s important to remember to NEVER look directly at the sun. Fortunately there are other ways to see this phenomena and not risk damaging your eyes by staring directly at our nearest star. Here is a good link from NASA on how to view the eclipse.

Here is another good link to the Slooh Community Observatory. They will be live broadcasting the eclipse tomorrow evening!

-Kyle

 

 

Big Changes Coming For Severe Weather Outlooks

Whether it be on the air or on this blog, you may notice that I regularly refer to severe weather threat zones in anticipation of severe weather events that may impact West Central Ohio. The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, or, SPC is responsible for these outlooks that meteorologists around the country communicate to the public. These changes will take place next Wednesday, October 22nd and will add two more categories to the severe weather scale.

Up until now severe weather threats were communicated with 4 categories. The SEE TEXT category being the lowest which basically meant a very marginal risk for severe weather. The SEE TEXT was then followed by SLIGHT RISK, MODERATE RISK and finally HIGH RISK.

Personally, I found the SEE TEXT category confusing. I knew it meant a very marginal threat for severe weather, so instead of saying SEE TEXT on air I chose to describe it as “VERY SLIGHT” which you may have noticed whenever I use my graphics to show severe weather threat areas.

But things are changing! Here is a look at the new way the SPC will be outlining future severe weather risks after October 22nd. This is taken from their website which can be found here. After looking over the changes my thoughts on the change can be found at the bottom.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Experimental SPC Day 1, 2, 3 Convective Outlook Change Page

Overview of the Experimental SPC Day 1-3 Outlook Change

Updated August 8, 2014: Service Change Notice 14-42 has been issued. The changes will be implemented effective Wednesday, October 22, 2014 at 1500 UTC.

Product Description Document (PDD): https://products.weather.gov/PDD/SPC_Day_1to3_Cat_Conv_Outlook.pdf.

The public comment period ended on June 17, 2014.

Q: How are the outlooks changing for Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3?

A: The SPC will revise Day 1 through Day 3 categorical severe weather outlooks to better communicate risk and describe the likelihood of severe weather. Format changes will also improve the use of SPC severe weather forecasts for customers who incorporate SPC outlooks into GIS systems.

The SPC is expanding the risk categories from four to five and clarifying the risk previously labeled as “See Text.” That descriptor will be replaced by a categorical line and the term “Marginal” to denote areas with a 5 percent probability of severe weather. The upper end of the “Slight Risk” category will be renamed “Enhanced” (short for “Enhanced Slight”) to denote a threshold 30 percent probability of severe wind or hail and/or a 10 percent chance of a tornado during the Day 1 period. For Days 2 and 3, the “Enhanced” risk category will denote a 30 percent total severe probability. The Moderate and High risk thresholds will remain essentially unchanged.

Current:

1. See Text
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Moderate (MDT)
4. High (HIGH)

Proposed:

1. Marginal (MRGL) – replaces the current SEE TEXT and now is described with Categorical line on the SPC Outlook.
2. Slight (SLGT)
3. Enhanced (ENH) – will replace upper-end SLGT risk probabilities, but is not a MDT risk
4. Moderate (MDT)
5. High (HIGH)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) and enhanced (ENH) categories as opposed to the current slight (SLGT) category and SEE TEXT labels.

2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/06/01 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) and enhanced (ENH) categories as opposed to the current slight (SLGT) category.

2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2013/02/10 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) categorie as opposed to the current SEE TEXT labels which does not clearly define the geographical areas of concern.

2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2013/09/15 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the all categorie as opposed to the current SLGT/MDT/HIGH.

2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/04/27 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

The examples below juxtapose the proposed (left) and the current (right) outlook graphics for the marginal (MRGL) categorie as opposed to the current SEE TEXT labels which does not clearly define the geographical areas of concern.

2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Preview Graphics
Proposed 2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Categorical Outlook (Proposed Areal Outline Product Example|KMZ|SHP) (Top)
2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Graphics
Current 2011/05/21 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Graphics (Current Areal Outline Product) (Top)

Below is an example of a proposed Public Severe Weather Graphic that includes the new categories. This graphic is enlarged on the area of greatest risk and designed for use by media partners and social media.

Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Public Severe Weather Outlook Graphic
Proposed 2011/04/27 1630Z Public Severe Weather Outlook Graphic (Top)

Q: Why is the SPC proposing to do this?

A: A primary goal of these changes is to bring better consistency to the risks communicated in SPC outlooks, from the short-range Day 1 outlooks through the extended range Day 4-8 outlooks. The changes are being made based on customer feedback and to better meet their needs.

Example: Currently, a 10 percent tornado probability including a risk of a significant tornado (>=EF2) is categorized as a Slight Risk. This is the same category used for a “low end” 15 percent risk of severe thunderstorm wind and hail events. In the new scheme, a 10 percent tornado probability that includes the chance of significant tornadoes would be categorized as an Enhanced Risk.

In addition, “See Text” does not currently convey a threat area, due to the lack of a contour in any “See Text” categorical forecast. And the current “Slight Risk” category covers too broad a range of severe weather probability values.

Q: Are there cases where the current categories will change based on the underlying severe weather probabilities?

A: The thresholds for traditional risk categories are essentially unchanged but there is some refinement in the underlying definitions to remain consistent with evolving trends in severe weather reporting. These refinements would only impact a couple of Day 1 tornado and severe wind outlooks during any year. A 15 percent tornado probability without a threat of an EF-2 or greater tornado at Day 1 will qualify as an Enhanced Day 1 tornado risk as opposed to the current scheme where it is a Moderate Day 1 Tornado Risk. Likewise, a 45 percent severe thunderstorm wind probability without a significant threat at Day 1 will qualify as an Enhanced Day 1 wind risk as opposed to the current scheme where it is a Moderate Day 1 wind risk.

Q: Why not a more comprehensive overhaul of all categorical outlook words (i.e. SLGT, MDT, HIGH)?

A: The categorical words Slight, Moderate and High have been used by SPC for nearly 35 years and are generally understood by the weather risk communication community. Making measured changes to the current system, we believe, is more effective than a wholesale change. These measured changes include: 1) moving to de-emphasize the specific words; and 2) working to communicate the level of risk to the public in multiple ways. This includes numerical risk categorization, appropriate colors to indicate severity, and strategic use of icons and symbols. Social scientists have encouraged us to communicate on multiple levels and not just with a single word, label or category.

Q: When will this change occur?

A: A 45-Day Public Comment Period regarding the proposed outlook changes ended on June 17, 2014. After assessing the feedback and incorporating any needed adjustments, a Service Change Notice will be issued at least 75 days prior to the implementation of changes to the outlook categories.
Updated: Service Change Notice 14-42 has been issued. The change will be effective Wednesday, October 22, 2014, at 1500 UTC.

Q: What role did social science play in making this change?

A: The NWS has a strong commitment to engaging the social sciences in evolving our services, and this community has helped inform our decision making for this change.


Technical Details of the Proposed SPC Day 1-3 Outlook Change

The proposed effective date is mid-to-late September 2014. NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 Convective Outlooks for the CONUS will include two new risk categories.

The addition of the new risk categories is based on customer feedback and the need to provide better consistency with other NWS products. Examples of these Outlooks (using historical data), are depicted below.

“MARGINAL” replaces the current SEE TEXT used in these products.

“ENHANCED” is an additional category to delineate areas of risk in the high end of the current SLIGHT risk, but below MODERATE risk.


Click on the links below to view the section:

Proposed Product Text Example Day 1 Outlook Descriptions Day 2, 3 Outlook Descriptions Product IDs To Be Changed

Below is an example of the Convective Outlook text product containing “MARGINAL” (MRGL) and “ENHANCED” (ENH) risk area delineations and Summary section. (Top)

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0110 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011
    
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
   MS...AL...FAR NWRN GA AND SRN MIDDLE TN...
   
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND NRN MS
   AND AL...NWRN GA...MUCH OF TN AND KY...WRN CAROLINAS...
   
   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPLACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE
   NRN APPALACHIANS...
   
   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
   EAST COAST...
   
   ...SUMMARY...
   AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
   THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS/AL...TN AND KY. FAST-MOVING
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACKED STRONG TO VIOLENT
   TORNADOES.
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   (The rest of the discussion remains unchanged.)


With the addition of “MARGINAL” and “ENHANCED” categories, the new categorical Day 1-3 Outlooks will include contours for up to six (6) categories as follows: (Top)

Day 1: 
   a. General Thunderstorms
      - 10% or greater probability of non-severe or near severe thunderstorms. 

   b. Severe Category 1 - Marginal 
      - 2% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 5% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   c. Severe Category 2 - Slight 
      - 5% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 15% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   d. Severe Category 3 - Enhanced 
      - 10% or greater tornado probability, or 
      - 30% or greater severe hail or severe wind probability.

   e. Severe Category 4 - Moderate 
      - 15% or greater tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability 
        of an EF2+ tornado, or
      - 30% or greater tornado probability, or
      - 45% or greater severe wind probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of a wind gusts 75 mph or greater, or
      - 45% or greater severe hail probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
      - 60% or greater severe wind probability, or
      - 60% or greater severe hail probability.

   f. Severe Category 5 - High 
      - 30% or greater tornado probability AND 10% or greater probability 
        of an EF2+ tornado, or
      - 45% or greater tornado probability, or
      - 60% or greater severe wind probability AND a 10% or greater 
        probability of a wind gust 75 mph or greater.

Day1 probability to categorical conversion table
Day 1 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table


Days 2 and 3: (Top)
   a. General Thunderstorms
      - 10% or greater probability of non-severe or near severe thunderstorms.

   b. Severe Category 1 - Marginal 
      - 5% or greater total severe probability.

   c. Severe Category 2 - Slight
      - 15% or greater total severe probability.

   d. Severe Category 3 - Enhanced 
      - 30% or greater total severe probability.

   e. Severe Category 4 - Moderate 
      - 45% or greater total severe probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of an EF2+ tornado, a wind gust 75 mph or greater, or 
        hail 2 inches or greater in diameter, or
      - 60% or greater total severe probability (Day 2 only).

   f. Severe Category 5 - High (Day 2 only) 
      - 60% or greater total severe probability AND 10% or greater 
        probability of an EF2+ tornado or a wind gust 75 mph or greater.
Day2 probability to categorical conversion tableDay 2 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table Day3 probability to categorical conversion tableDay 3 Outlook Probability to Category Conversion Table

The following products reflect the changes: (Top)

   WMO Header    AWIPS ID    Description
   ACUS01 KWNS   SWODY1      Day 1 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS01 KWNS   PTSDY1      Day 1 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWE46 KWNS   RBG94O      Day 1 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ17 KWNS               Day 1 NDFD Categorical Outlook
   ACUS02 KWNS   SWODY2      Day 2 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS02 KWNS   PTSDY2      Day 2 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWK48 KWNS   RBG99O      Day 2 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ27 KWNS               Day 2 NDFD Categorical Outlook
   ACUS03 KWNS   SWODY3      Day 3 Convective Outlook Discussion
   WUUS03 KWNS   PTSDY3      Day 3 Convective Outlook Areal Outline
   PGWI47 KWNS   RBG98O      Day 3 Red Book Graphic Categorical Outlook
   LDIZ37 KWNS               Day 3 NDFD Categorical Outlook

   The "points" products (PTSDY1, PTSDY2, and PTSDY3) will include new labels "MRGL" (Marginal)
   and "ENH" (Enhanced).

 

So as you can see, there is A LOT of thinking and data that goes into communicating severe weather! However, I for one wonder if the two extra categories will be confusing for the public? Or do you think the new way in labeling severe weather threats will help you better to understand the risk factors involved in what might lie ahead? In my years as a meteorologist I have seen on several occasions very bad severe weather outbreaks when we were under just a “Slight Risk” and I have seen busts when we have been under a “Moderate” or “High” risk. Of course, I know the weather is not an exact science, but maybe more categories for severe weather outlooks could better describe the risk factors? I’m curious to hear your thoughts!

-Kyle

Total Lunar Eclipse Wednesday Morning!

The sun and the moon will literally do battle tomorrow morning during the morning hours with a total lunar eclipse set to dazzle eyes all across the country. This is the second full lunar eclipse that we will see this year, two more are expected next year as well with one in April and September of 2015

The partial eclipse will begin shortly after 5 AM Wednesday morning with the total eclipse beginning around 6:25 AM. This will take place with the moon setting in the western horizon and should make for quite the spectacle since the moon will appear bigger being so close to  the horizon.Here is a video with more details!

And it looks as if mother nature will cooperate with clearing skies expected overnight here in West Central Ohio! Here is a look at two short-term models showing clear skies around 7 AM Wednesday morning!

HRRR Cloud Cover RPM Satellite

Again, the partial eclipse will begin around 5:15 AM with the total eclipse starting at 6:25 AM. Happy viewing!

-Kyle

Welcome To October’s Temperature Roller Coaster!

Are you ready? It’s that time of year! The time of the year when mother nature will REALLY begin to have a hard time making up her mind on whether or not she wants to hang on to summer, or dive in head first into Fall.

The ride begins on Thursday with West Central Ohio expected to warm into the low 80’s in what will very much feel like a Summer day. But the warmth will be very short-lived thanks to a strong cold front slated to move through on Friday. The front will begin to move in from the West on Thursday night bringing scattered showers to the region into the pre-dawn hours on Friday with the front expected to move through sometime early afternoon during the day.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

As of now the chance for severe weather with this front is very low. Nonetheless, I’ll still be watching Friday early afternoon as the front passes through for the small chance one or two storms along it become severe.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

As of now the big reason why I’m not very concerned with severe weather is due to the fact that there won’t be much CAPE in the region as the front moves through early Friday afternoon. Again, CAPE is the atmospheres potential to rapidly produce storms with strong updrafts to fuel them. Almost no sunshine is forecasted for Friday, that allows ample cloud cover to help keep the atmosphere stable. ALSO, the area of low pressure seen in the above picture will be pulling pretty far north and occluding from the main cold front. This process helps to cut off low-level moisture (higher dew points) from making it this far north. At best, dew points on Friday will make it into the low 60’s, that’s not all that impressive for severe weather.

There will be high amounts of wind shear present over the region as the cold front moves through though.

NAM SHEAR

This wind shear along the front will help to initiate widespread rain through the Great Lakes most of the day Friday. Wind shear (a change in wind direction or speed in the atmosphere) is a lifting process. This lift along the cold front will no doubt trigger rain, but without that extra ummph from instability and higher CAPE, I would be surprised if we just saw nothing more than regular showers and thunderstorms with occasional higher wind gusts during the day. And if you’re thinking about heading to a game Friday night. The showers should be beginning to taper off by kick off but be sure to dress warm and bring the umbrella just in case!

Here’s the biggest news! It’s looking like temperatures on Saturday will STRUGGLE to break 50 degrees behind this strong cold front. My forecast right now has us at 52 for the high, but honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t even make it out of the 40’s! You can see the COOL air in this model, the time shown is Saturday afternoon.

NAM Temps

As I mentioned earlier, I’m not that concerned about Friday. But you know I’ll have my eye on it regardless! And if you haven’t yet, please check out our FREE weather app! You can always keep an eye on storms with our interactive radar along with receive automatic updates on watches and warnings!

APP PIC

-Kyle