Severe Weather Possible Thursday Evening

(3/30/16)

Two rounds of rain will move through West Central Ohio in the next 24 hours. The first round will move through Wednesday night into Thursday morning here in West Central Ohio bringing mainly just rain and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms through noon on Thursday. Once this first round comes to an end early Thursday afternoon, we’ll get a break from the precipitation through most of the afternoon hours. It’s not until Thursday evening that a cold front will begin to approach and we’ll see our chance for some stronger storms. Here is a look at the current severe weather outlook for Thursday, but as far as we are concerned, Thursday evening.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

The BIG question on Thursday afternoon is how much sunshine we’ll see here in NW Ohio. If we can stay cloudy most of the afternoon and early evening, thunderstorms that develop Thursday afternoon over higher risk areas to the west (see image above) will be moving into a less favorable environment here in Ohio by the time they reach us into the evening hours.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

There is no doubt that higher instability and better overall conditions for severe storms will be to the southwest of us here in Lima. However, if we can see a couple of hours of sunshine Thursday afternoon and our temperatures warm into the low 70’s our chance for severe storms will increase. For now I’m leaning towards the scenario that we won’t clear out much Thursday afternoon thanks to residual cloud cover from morning rain, this would lessen our chance for severe weather Thursday evening. Even in this scenario, we’re still looking at a decent chance for some damaging winds of 50 mph+ here in West Central Ohio between 5 and 10 PM. Here is a look at Futurecast around 7 PM Thursday evening.

DMA Future Cast And Temps

Wind shear is pretty strong with this system too! Because of that, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out either in the 5 to 10 PM timeframe.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

The bottom line with this system is that we will see rain, wind gusts of over 40 mph throughout the day on Thursday, and the potential for a few severe storms Thursday evening. Be sure to check our Facebook page and our weather app throughout the day on Thursday for updates!

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Storms NOT Snow Possible Tuesday Night

 

2/1/16

Groundhog Day will bring the chance for severe storms to part of the Ohio Valley but there is not a lot of confidence that those storms will make it as far north as West Central Ohio. One thing is for sure though, after another warm up on Tuesday, we’ll see some very gusty wind, rain and maybe even some thunder before the days end.

Here is the set up with a strong cold front lifting through the mid-west. The front will draw up a good amount of moisture out of the Gulf, but will probably struggle to pull it into most of Ohio during the daylight hours. By 7 PM Tuesday the area I have circled will be the area to watch for severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.

Future Tuesday Evening

This lines up very well with the National Weather Service’s outlook for Tuesday.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Once the warm front in the image above lifts to our north we will probably feel temperatures jump into the mid to upper 50’s late Tuesday evening.

Future Temperatures

These warmer temperatures will also be accompanied by some of the increased moisture I talked about earlier, but the timing won’t be very good for thunderstorm development being night-time. Nonetheless, some strong wind could accompany rain that moves in late Tuesday evening with wind gusts potentially over 40 mph.

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

In an effort not to drag this one out I’ll end this post by saying that there is a very low threat for strong thunderstorms here Tuesday evening. Isolated wind gusts over 40 mph will certainly be possible, but the overall threat is something I am not concerned with.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

With the rain moving in tomorrow please make sure to stay updated with our weather app!

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-Kyle

Another Round Of Snow Monday Night

1/11/16

Now we’re into the swing of things! After a couple of inches of snow Sunday morning we’re in for another round of accumulating snow tonight and into Tuesday morning. Our snow tonight will be from a clipper system that will sweep through the Great Lakes.

Clipper Explanation

Snow will begin to move in late this evening around 8 or 9 PM with light to moderate snowfall overnight accumulating around 2 inches by Daybreak Tuesday.

Future Cast Close

Future Cast Close 2

With a dry air mass in place this is very likely going to be a light and fluffy snow that falls tonight. Winds will pick up as the system moves in so that means blowing snow can be expected on Tuesday thanks to the nature of the expected snow. Here is a breakdown of what we can expect out on the roads.

Driving Impacts

I think it’s a pretty good bet that we’ll see around 2 inches of fresh snow by daybreak Tuesday with another inch possible during the day. By Tuesday evening I think most of us will end up with around 2 to 3 inches of snow.

Kyle Snow Totals

I am not a school administrator, but I would bet that you can expect at least a 2 hour delay on Tuesday along with a good possibility of an outright closure for the day because of blowing snow and eventual wind chills below zero into the afternoon. On a scale of 1 to 10 I would rank this system at about a 6 mainly for the bad timing around the Tuesday morning commute. Have that shovel ready Tuesday!

Snow Meter Kyle

REMEMBER, you can keep up with all the latest on our weather app!

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Accumulating Snow Possible Sunday

1/8/16

The word “snow” seems to have been a lost term thus far here this winter, but over the weekend it looks like we could see some accumulations finally here in West Central Ohio. This snow will be thanks to an area of low pressure moving in out of the southwest on Sunday that will initially bring us rain late Saturday and Saturday night.

Future Wide 2

As the low moves over the state of Ohio it will pull in cooler air behind it switching rain to snow Sunday morning.

Future Wide

Notice in the above graphics that the heaviest snow will likely be over parts of Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan. There is still the chance that this low could shift its track a bit further east, and if that were the case it would bring the potential for some higher snowfall totals with it, something we’re always paying attention to. By Sunday morning around 7 or 8 AM the rain will probably begin to switch over to snow from west to east here in Ohio.

Future Close

I’m not expecting heavy snow, but with off and on snow showers through the day it looks like we could end up seeing around 1″ of snow for most of us here in West Central Ohio. Where some heavier snow showers fall it’s certainly possible to see closer to 2″. Here is my current snowfall forecast as of Friday afternoon.

Kyle Snow Totals

This definitely isn’t the “big one” but without much snowfall so far this season you’ll want to make sure you’re prepared when you head out this Sunday!

You can also keep up to date on the latest radar and forecasts with our weather app!

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Wednesday Afternoon/Evening Severe Threat

Here we are almost to the Christmas holiday and I’m writing a blog post about severe weather and NOT snow! But with VERY warm temperatures expected Wednesday, along with the passing of a cold front, there is a low-end threat for isolated severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Here is what you need to know.

Set up To even see low chances for severe weather reaching up into Northwest Ohio for this time of year is pretty remarkable. Tuesdays outlook from the National Weather Service has West Central Ohio right on the northern edge of that low risk.

Outlook Wide

And a closer look

Outlook Close

The threat for severe weather will be present thanks to unusually warm temperatures in the mid 60’s along with the approach of a frontal system that will draw up a lot of moisture from the Gulf. This front and area of low pressure will have a lot of support from the jet stream which means very high wind shear will be in place, especially late afternoon and evening. The warm temperatures and high moisture will also allow for low but (still significant for this time of year) CAPE values that will allow for just enough instability to produce thunderstorms.  Here is a look at those CAPE values by about 2 PM Wednesday afternoon. They are definitely low, but really any CAPE this time of year is a bonus for potential severe weather.

CAPE

Notice in the picture above that the higher CAPE values are off to the west in Missouri and Southern Illinois. As the day progresses I’ll be watching to see if that area of higher instability can make it this far east. If it does, it appears the best chance for isolated severe storms will be late in the evening as the cold front nears West Central Ohio.

Timing- As of now the window for our storms appears to be between about 3 PM and 11 PM Wednesday. The threat for strong to severe storms will come in two waves, the first being with a prefrontal area of showers and thunderstorms that will take advantage of increasing moisture and temperatures already in the low to mid 60’s.

Prefrontal Activity

The second line of potential thunderstorms will move in between about 7 PM and 11 PM and it’s this line that I think has the better chance for isolated damaging winds, and to a much lesser extent, perhaps an isolated/brief tornado.

Local 2

Summary- My confidence in severe weather Wednesday isn’t very high. There will certainly be high wind shear in the atmosphere along with a small amount of CAPE, but I just have a hard time believing we’ll see much more than some isolated damaging winds this time of year. Between 3 and 11 PM on Wednesday my biggest concern is isolated winds from 50 to 60 mph and to a lesser extent the chance for a brief/isolated tornado.

Severe Outlook

I’ll be sure to keep you updated as the system moves in! In the meantime you can always track any incoming weather on our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

 

Severe Weather In The Midwest This Wednesday

11/9/15

A strong frontal system will plow through the middle part of the United States on Wednesday bringing a widespread threat for severe weather across America’s heartland. As of today’s forecasts, here is how the set up is looking for Wednesday.

Wed Set Up Day

Several different ingredients for severe weather will be coming together including a strong cold front and VERY active jet stream helping to stir trouble here on the ground. One thing to notice on the above graphic is that this system will have limited moisture (dew-points) to work with. This is typical for this time of year the further north you are but it doesn’t completely rule out the chance for severe weather, even though typically the more moist the air is the better the overall threat for storms.

Here is the current outlook from the National Weather Service for Wednesday’s potential storms.

SEVERE WED

Notice how the set up graphic above correlates with the outlook. The area where the strong jet stream winds, cold front, low pressure and moisture coincide is where the best chance for storms including isolated tornadoes will be Wednesday afternoon and evening.

All of this activity will head our way Wednesday night with the chance for strong storms here in West Central Ohio. The good news for us is that several factors will work against us getting any severe weather. Here is a look at the potential set up by about midnight on Wednesday night.

Wed Night Severe

We’ll still be dealing with a strong jet stream moving in, so that greatly enhances our chance for strong winds to the tune of 40 to 50 mph. But we won’t have barely any moisture to work with and without higher dew points the atmosphere has trouble becoming unstable, and without that instability storms have a hard time developing and maintaining strength. Here is a look at our projected dew points Wednesday night. Notice the higher dew points staying to the south and west of West Central Ohio. Where you find the higher moisture, that’s where you’ll find the better chance for storms Wednesday night.

Wed Night Dew Point

Looking closer at the severe weather outlook, it’s clear that’s where the better chance for severe weather is as well.

SEVERE WED ZOOM

 

Having said that, a very strong jet stream can sometimes make up for a lack of instability, but the fact that all this is trying to come together at night has me pretty confident that we’ll very likely just deal with the chance for gusty winds into Thursday morning.

This is definitely something worth watching over the next day or so, but as I mentioned above, I’m not too concerned as of now. Stay tuned!

Also! Be sure to check out our Weather App! It’s great for radar and active watches and warnings!

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-Kyle

 

Remnants Of Hurricane Patricia Move Into Ohio Tuesday

10/26/15

It was just 3 days ago that the entire meteorological world had their eyes on Hurricane Patricia, a hurricane that will go down in history as the strongest ever recorded by the National Weather Service. After making landfall with winds of 165 mph on Mexico’s western coast on Friday evening, Patricia quickly weakened but the massive amount of moisture with this storm carried on into the United States.

Large Patricia

And as you might have guessed by the title of this blog post, all that moisture is headed our way here in West Central Ohio making for a potentially rainy Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture from this system will slowly push north tonight and Tuesday bringing light rain showers into Northwest Ohio by the early afternoon on Tuesday.

Future 1

Gradually throughout Tuesday evening both rain and wind will begin to pick up. And while neither will be anywhere on the scale of when this system made landfall as a hurricane in Mexico, we are definitely in for our biggest soaker in quite a while after what has been a very dry Fall season. Rain and wind will be the strongest Tuesday night with over an inch of rain possible along with wind gusts around 40 mph possible. Below is the projected radar and wind gusts at 4 AM Wednesday morning.

Future 2

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

Heavy rain Tuesday night will taper off to showers on Wednesday with scattered showers lingering into the afternoon and evening. But it will also continue to be very windy with gusts from 30 to 40 mph into Wednesday night. Here is a look at both the projected radar and wind gusts into late Wednesday afternoon.

Future 3

Winds 3

Needless to say, I think the 24 period beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon will take care of A LOT of leaves on the trees! We might be spending a good deal of time raking this upcoming weekend:) It will also bring us a good amount of rain, very likely 1″ to 2″ TOTAL through Wednesday afternoon. I don’t think this will make for much of a flood threat other than some localized street flooding from leaves clogging storm drains.

Here is a breakdown of everything outlined above.

Patricia Remnants

And remember to use our FREE weather app on your smart phone to keep up with the latest as all this rain moves in!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Why This Picture Is Funny, Sad And True All At The Same Time

10/01/15

Hurricane Track

I have a cousin that lives in Florida who shared this meme with me today as Hurricane Joaquin makes headlines all across the country. While my initial reaction was to laugh at both at the picture itself and the obvious misspelling, it really got me thinking about how I communicate the weather.

The above picture, while clearly exaggerated, highlights that uncertainty that meteorologists see every single day when they look at forecast models. Here is a perfect example of that uncertainty with Wednesday’s forecast models showing their projected Joaquin track.

Tropical Spaghetti Models

And now today’s (Thursday’s) models showing the projected Joaquin track.

Tropical Spaghetti Models 2

In just 24 hours there is a BIG difference in the two pictures with the latter showing a much greater potential for a track out to sea and hopefully away from the United States. The forecast will continue to become more accurate in the days to come as the storm moves further north and closer to the U.S.

Now back to my original picture.

Hurricane Track

I want to share a couple of thoughts that go through my head every day and especially when there is the potential for something to have a big impact like a winter storm, severe weather outbreak or even in this case a hurricane.

1) Before social media I’m willing to bet the majority of the public didn’t know plots like this even existed. Social media makes it SO easy to share information and I think that’s a great thing. But how much information can we really digest in any given day? I can’t help but think that your average Joe is perusing through his or her Facebook feed thinking this. “Oh, that’s a cute (insert animal here), looks like so and so had a great vacation! I can’t believe how big their kid is getting! Oh my goodness, what the heck is this?”

Tropical Spaghetti Models 2

“Don’t those meteorologists have ANY idea on where that dang hurricane is headed, how dumb can they be?”

I LOVE sharing information on how the weather process works, how it develops and how it is forecasted. But I think it’s an honest question to ask when I say “Is this information overload on a platform like Facebook or Twitter? Or is this something that people genuinely want to see and learn more about?”

2) Are meteorologists shooting themselves in the foot when they share images like this? I have been a meteorologist for nearly 10 years professionally. I have seen the climate both before and AFTER the social media boom. There is immense pressure to be the first to post, the first to give a forecast even when it’s 7 or 8 days out and the overall expectation to make sure whatever it is you post on social media gets attention, likes and shares. This inherently creates a “what if” climate in the weather world (which I myself am guilty of too!) What essentially is happening is that meteorologists are taking the uncertainty in forecasts that has ALWAYS existed and sharing it publicly exposing that uncertainty to the public. A running joke that I always hear time and time again is, “I wish I had your job, I wish I could be right half the time and still keep my job!” I know that 95% of the people who tell me this are joking, but there is truth to a joke sometimes. The fact of the matter is that most meteorologists are right the vast majority of the time, unfortunately it’s just human nature to remember the few busted forecasts rather than the successes. I constantly wonder if we are only perpetuating that notion by sharing these “what if” scenarios even if we make it abundantly clear that they are not forecasts.

I’ve seen meteorologists in the camp that says limit your sharing to social media and I have seen meteorologists who share everything they can. Who am I to say what’s right? All I know is that I’m pretty lucky to be in such a changing industry, and it’s a challenge everyday to try to figure out the best ways to communicate across all these new and exciting platforms.

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

Joaquin Could Be The First Hurricane To Make Landfall In The Continental U.S. Since July ’14

9/30/15

First thing’s first, Joaquin is pronounced “Wah-Keen”. Now that that’s out-of-the-way let’s take a good look at where this potentially land falling hurricane could impact in the coming days.

As of now, Joaquin is sitting nearly stationary about 175 miles ENE of the Central Bahamas. It’s currently a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 85 miles per hour.

Sat Shot

Over the next couple of days Joaquin is expected to make a much-anticipated north turn while quickly strengthening and reaching low Category Three status with winds of 110 mph by Friday morning.

Joaquin 1

The storm is projected to move north and maintain its category three status into Saturday afternoon.

Joaquin 2

And then by Sunday morning could be looking at a landfall either as a strong Cat 2 storm or weak Cat 3 in the Carolinas/Virginia coast.

Joaquin 3

Again, this forecast could change but forecast models seem to be honing in much more today on the Carolina Coast today. Here is a look at what’s called a spaghetti plot showing numerous computer forecast models and their trajectories.

Tropical Spaghetti Models

Even though the majority of forecasts now point this storm towards the United States, there is still one major forecast model, the ECMWF (otherwise known as the European model) that has maintained a north/northeastward track out into the Atlantic Ocean for the past two days. This would no doubt be some very good news but it appears that the vast majority of forecast models now show this storm making a U.S. landfall.

If indeed Joaquin makes landfall this weekend it would be the first time a hurricane made landfall in the continental United States since July of 2014 (Arthur). It has been since 2005 (Wilma) that a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) has made landfall with the United States. Here is a list from NOAA of ALL the recent land falling hurricanes.

If the track continues on its current path we could see a cloudy, cool and rainy weekend here in West Central Ohio. But as far as any increased wind or flooding, that appears VERY unlikely here in Ohio due to this storm. I’ll keep you updated!

Be sure to download our FREE weather app too!

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-Kyle

 

 

Blood Moon/Supermoon Total Lunar Eclipse, Here’s Everything You Need To Know!

9/24/15

West Central Ohio is in for quite the celestial treat late Sunday evening if we can manage to keep the skies clear! The fourth total lunar eclipse in 2 years will be seen around much of the world as the moon is expected to pass completely into the earth’s shadow!

No doubt you have probably heard the terms “Blood Moon” and “Super Moon ” being thrown around with this upcoming eclipse, these terms both sound pretty intimidating until you look at what they actually mean and what we can expect when viewing this event.

Blood Moon: As far as I know and understand, every TOTAL lunar eclipse can be considered a blood moon. Think of when the sun sets and changes color. As the light from the sun is blocked by the earth’s horizon and is refracted, the light begins to be filtered leaving mostly orangeish/reddish colors remaining. The same process takes place during a total lunar eclipse when the sun’s light is blocked and refracted around the earth as moon moves into the earth’s shadow.

Eclipse Graphic

Super Moon: The “Super Moon” term refers to the full moon where the moon is closest to the earth during its monthly cycle, or otherwise known as its “perigee”. The perigee this month happens to both fall on the full moon AND the day of the eclipse (Sunday Night). At this time the moon will be roughly 220,000 miles from earth making it appear slightly bigger.  According to NASA, this won’t happen again until 2033.

So when can we expect to see this phenomenon?

The eclipse will technically begin just after 8 PM Sunday evening but probably won’t be visible to the naked eye until 9:07 PM when the moon begins to pass into the earth’s umbral shadow.

Eclipse 1

The total eclipse will begin shortly after 10 PM.

Eclipse 2

The total eclipse will be visible for over 1 hour and come to an end at 11:23 PM.

Eclipse 3

Then onto another partial eclipse with the event nearing its end by 12:27 AM Monday morning.

Eclipse 4

As of now the forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, this definitely isn’t ideal for watching the eclipse, but I’m still confident that because of the length of this event we should be able to see parts of it! I’ll keep you updated!

-Kyle