Our First Spring Chance For Thunderstorms In West Central Ohio

Even though accumulating snow is falling here in West Central Ohio this evening, temperatures will be quick to rebound here in the region with readings warm enough by Wednesday for potential thunderstorms.

A warm front will lift toward West Central Ohio on Tuesday bringing warmer temperatures and a chance for rain after sunset. Once this front passes north of the area by late in the day Tuesday, we’ll feel temperatures warm into the 40’s and then eventually surge into the 60’s by Wednesday afternoon and evening! An area of low pressure will accompany the warm front on Tuesday and because of this we’ll see our rain chance on the increase after sunset Tuesday and into Tuesday night. A rumble of thunder Tuesday night can’t ruled out, but our better chance for storms will come late Wednesday.

FUTURE

Behind the low pictured above will be another system that will approach during the day on Wednesday. As you can see in the picture below, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front as is moves towards the Great Lakes.

FUTURE 1

There is the potential for a few of these storms to be severe, but mainly to the SOUTH and WEST of us here in Ohio. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Wednesday. For now we’re just in a risk for general thunderstorms here in West Central Ohio. (you might also notice that there are more outlook categories in the Storm Prediction Center’s forecasts, for more on that change please check out their website here )

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

For now, temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 60’s on Wednesday. If those temperatures can reach 70 or possibly higher that outlook will very likely shift further north. I’ll be sure to keep you all updated!

-Kyle

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CCCC 2015 Forecast

I’m excited to be traveling to Florida this week for CCCC 2015, where I will be co-presenting on how to build credibility in social media spaces. This is something that has been of great interest to me for nearly a decade as a Professional Television Broadcast Meteorologist. I’m also looking forward to meeting and speaking with educators and communications professionals from around the country. And if you’re like me you’re looking forward to higher temps and sunny skies. Here’s my personal forecast to help you C’s folks know what to expect over the next coming days.

Coming off of a BITTER cold February here in Ohio, it’s hard to imagine what 80 degrees feels like at this point. Just yesterday we were able to warm into the mid 60’s for the first time since November of 2014, and let me tell you, it felt absolutely amazing! So you can probably imagine my excitement when looking at the forecast for this years convention and seeing temperatures well into the 80’s.

I am expecting a good deal of sunshine on Wednesday across much of Florida. With this sun, high temperatures should easily warm into the mid 80’s. Here is a look at the projected temps around 4 PM Wednesday.

Wednesday 4 PM Temps

A very weak cold front will SLOWLY drop south toward the Tampa area during the day as well. This front could spark off a few light rain showers late afternoon and evening, but it’s honestly looking like most of the day will be dry thanks to a strong area of high pressure sitting over the Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday

As this front slowly sags south on Thursday we’ll see a better chance for pop up type rain showers. The cold front will slowly settle across Central Florida by Thursday afternoon, all the while the aforementioned area of high pressure weakens a bit over the Gulf. This will be a little more conducive for scattered showers Thursday afternoon and evening. Here is a look at Thursday morning around 10 AM.

Thursday AM

And here is a look by Thursday afternoon with showers developing along the cold front.

Thursday PM

Again, these showers will be widely scattered on Thursday and by no means do I think it will be anywhere near a wash out. Even with a few more clouds and the possibility of showers I still think temperatures by Thursday afternoon should easily make it into the 80’s.

Thursday 2 Temps

It’s looking like more of the same into Friday and Saturday with that weakening cold front still possibly being the focus for light showers. Temperatures should hold into the low 80’s too well into the weekend!

Check out my presentation, “Examining Ethos in Social Media Spaces” session I-23 from 12:30-1:45 p.m. on Friday. I’m looking forward to meeting you!

 

End Of The Week Rain For West Central Ohio

Rain is expected to move back into Ohio for the end of the week and with all the recent snow melt and rain showers from earlier this week many may be concerned about a possible flood threat.

For Friday, rain looks to hold off until mid-afternoon here in West Central Ohio. The rain will arrive thanks to an area of low pressure moving out of the south bringing with it ample moisture out of the Gulf.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

By the noon hour on Friday I wouldn’t be surprised to see light showers moving into our southern counties. By 1 or 2 PM most of the counties in West Central Ohio should be seeing at least light rain showers.

Future 1

Light to moderate rain is expected to continue well into the evening…..

Future 2

The rain should begin to taper off Friday night with just light showers remaining by sunrise Saturday. At this point, the heaviest of the rain will have moved on and off into Eastern Ohio.

Future 3

By 8 AM Saturday morning I don’t think it’s out of the question that most places here in West Central Ohio could see over 1/2″ of rain. It’s looking as if higher totals will be found the further south you go with lighter totals further north in the viewing area through Saturday morning.

Kyle Future Rainfall

So how about the flooding potential?

Do I think there could be some minor flooding in low-lying areas? Yes. Do I think that will be a widespread flooding event with rivers and streams overflowing their banks? No, there just won’t be enough rain! If we stay in the half-inch to inch range that I’m forecasting through Saturday morning rivers and streams will swell a little, but not overflow. Check out some of the PROJECTED height levels of both the Blanchard River in Ottawa and Findlay, two places that usually flood first.

The Blanchard in Findlay is projected to stay BELOW minor flooding levels (11 feet)

Blanchard Findlay

And the Blanchard in Ottawa is also projected to stay BELOW minor flooding levels (23 Feet)

Blanchard At Ottawa

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! But for now it looks as if we can just expect some minor flooding in low-lying areas after the rain moves our early Saturday morning.

-Kyle

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Wintry Mix To Impact Tuesday Morning Commute

3/2/15

I think it’s safe to say that March came in like a lion this year with several inches of snow on Sunday and more wintry weather expected to impact West Central Ohio Tuesday morning!

We’ll see the possibility for all types of wintry weather beginning late tonight with light snow possible by daybreak Tuesday. This snow will eventually switch to a sleet/freezing rain and all rain mix by early afternoon.

Future Wide

First, lets look at the timing of the different types of precipitation here in West Central Ohio Tuesday.

Timing The SNow

At first light snow is expected to fall in the region in the 6 to 10 AM timeframe. By no means will this be heavy snow. Around a half-inch to MAYBE an inch is possible.

RPM Future Snow

Here is a look at the projected radar by 10 AM Tuesday morning as some of the light snow begins to possibly switch to freezing rain

DMA Future Cast And Temps

The window for freezing rain looks to be about 2 or 3 hours in the 10 AM to 1 PM timeframe. Anywhere from a trace to 1/10th of an inch of icing is possible here in West Central Ohio. Even though that doesn’t sound like much it’s still plenty to cause the roads to potentially be very slick during that timeframe.

FUTURE ICE ACCUMULATIONS

We’ll transition over to all rain by the early afternoon hours with temperatures on the rise!

Future 2

It’s looking like the rain on Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night will be on and off and as of now I’m expecting rain totals to be in the .25″ to .50″ range.

Kyle Future Rainfall

Heavier rain will set up Tuesday night just south and east of West Central Ohio where totals will likely approach, and in some cases exceed 1 inch. It’s into Central and Southern Ohio where there will be more of a flood threat, for us here in West Central Ohio I’m only anticipating some minor flooding in rural and low-lying areas.

For all the latest alerts, advisories and latest radar please be sure to download our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

UPDATE On Sunday Snow!

2/27/15

We just can’t catch a break from weekend snow here in West Central Ohio with snow expected to move in on Sunday. Forecast models have been very consistent for the last 3 or 4 days showing this snow potential, and as we near Sunday the track and potential accumulation is becoming more clear.

A warm front lifting out of the south will spark widespread snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning through Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Light snow will probably start falling here by daybreak on Sunday.

Future Wide

Snow will likely pick up in intensity through the day with the heaviest snow expected to fall in the 10 AM to 5 PM time frame.

Future Wide 2

The BIG question with this system will be how far north will warmer temperatures make it? This would limit the snowfall amounts here in West Central Ohio, especially for our southern counties. Here is a closer look at the Futurecast and where that rain/snow line could set up Sunday afternoon. This will have to be monitored very closely over the next 24 hours as it could have a big impact on potential accumulations.

Future Close

The latest guidance by NOAA shows a 70 to 80 percent chance just to the North of Lima to see 4 or more inches of snow. I certainly don’t think it’s out of the question that part of our viewing area could see closer to 5, maybe 6 inches of snow.

HPC

Because of that chance that rain could mix into the snow in some of our southern counties I am keeping accumulations slightly lower in my Friday afternoon snowfall forecast for Sunday.

Kyle Snow Totals 2

Again, this could still change depending on how much warm air is pulled north with this system. I’ll definitely be watching! And remember you can also download our weather app to stay up to date on all the latest watches/warnings, radar and current conditions here in West Central Ohio.

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Have a good weekend everyone!

-Kyle

 

More Cold And More Weekend Snow. What’s New, Right?

We’re now in our 15th day here in Lima where temperatures have been unable to reach the freezing mark (32 degrees). And it looks as if it’s going to get worse before it gets better here in West Central Ohio with sub-zero temperatures expected the next couple of nights.

Overnight lows both tonight and Friday night will very likely fall below zero as a cold area of high pressure settles in. This high will keep our weather calm here in the region, but it will also allow for night-time clearing, especially on Friday night that will let temperatures fall in the -4° to -8° below zero range early Saturday morning.

We’ll begin a slow warm up into Saturday and Sunday, but as we have seen in the past, with warming temperatures comes an increased chance for snow! A warm front will lift out of the south on Sunday bringing a very good chance for snow to end our weekend. Overall, forecast models have been pretty consistent over the last couple of days depicting this scenario, that’s why I’m comfortable talking about accumulation numbers over 3 days before the storm.

Both the GFS and the European forecast models show snow moving in on Sunday. The timing between them is slightly different, but both show the potential for around 3 to 5 inches by early Sunday morning here in West Central Ohio. Again, it’s important to note that forecasts are always a FLUID situation and can change as new data becomes available! This is simply meant to inform and give a heads up, by no means is this my FINAL forecast for Sunday. With that said here is the European model showing snow moving into West Central Ohio by about 7 or 8 AM Sunday morning.

EURO SUNDAY AM

And the European by midnight Sunday night

EURO SUNDAY MIDNIGHT

This model shows about a 12 to 16 hour period on Sunday with the potential for on and off light to moderate snow.

The GFS is similar, it just pushes in the snow a bit later in the day on Sunday. The GFS shows the snow moving in by about 1 PM on Sunday

GFS SUNDAY NOON

And the snow moving out close to daybreak Monday morning.

GFS LATE

Taking a look at NOAA’s percentages on Sunday for 2 OR MORE inches of snow, we can see that the chance for most of West Central Ohio is above 80 percent.

HPC

Again, by no means is this a final forecast! You can count on me to keep you updated over the next couple of days as this potential snow approaches. And again, you can keep up on the latest with our weather app!

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-Kyle

We’re Approaching Two Weeks Straight With Below Freezing Temperatures!

2/23/15

That’s right, we’re on our 12th day here in Lima with temperatures unable to reach 32 degrees or warmer for the daytime high! And the way it’s currently going, it looks as if that streak will easily exceed the two-week mark with highs all week-long expected to top out in the teens and 20’s. You have to go all the way back to December of 2010 to find a stretch of days longer than the one we’re currently in with temperatures below freezing, that stretch was the 13th through the 28th.

I can’t help but compare this winter’s cold to last Winter here in Lima and when I looked at the numbers I was honestly a bit surprised. Remember how cold it was in January of 2014? We had 10 days that month with low temperatures below zero. But the interesting thing is this, even though 1/3rd of the nights were below zero, the longest stretch of daily highs below freezing (32 degrees) was only 5 days! In February of 2014 we had a stretch of days with highs below 32 degrees that lasted 10 days (3rd through the 12th) but even that span doesn’t best the one we’re currently in.

We have had 6 total days this winter with lows that dropped below zero, compare that to last winter’s 15 days with lows below zero and you may be inclined to think last winter was colder. But as I mentioned above, this winter’s cold has had more staying power with more consecutive days below freezing. Which would you say is worse? I’m curious to know!

Another interesting fact is that while much of the Eastern United States is experiencing well below average temperatures, the rest of the world is actually mostly above average. Check this out! Here is a look at the global temperature departure from average for January of 2015. The Eastern US definitely sticks out as cold!

Departure

But the interesting fact is that while it’s cold here, the overall average temperature departure from average for January of 2015 was 1.39° above average. That’s the second warmest departure from average for January globally since records began in 1880. (The warmest was 2007) Here is much more on the Climate Summary from NOAA if you’re interested!

-Kyle

 

 

UPDATE On Saturday Snow Potential

2/19/15

In Wednesday’s post here I talked about three different possible tracks of an area of low pressure that will impact Ohio into the weekend. The track of the low is becoming more clear as of today, and it looks as if the low will be tracking south of Ohio. For us, that means a snow event and not a rain/snow mix as I talked about on Wednesday.

So here is a look at that southward trending low as it nears West Central Ohio early Saturday morning.

Future 1

Before I go on, even though most forecast models seem to be converging on this southern track of the low, it could still shift its track! It could continue to shift further south by this time tomorrow, and if that happens I’ll continue to adjust my forecast! What I’m laying out here is what we can expect IF this low maintains its current track as portrayed by forecast models today.

Ok, now that necessary disclaimer is out-of-the-way let’s continue :)

Based on Thursday’s data light snow looks to move into West Central Ohio by daybreak Saturday morning beginning as light snow. As the low moves closer we’ll probably see the snow pick up into the afternoon and evening hours.

Future 2

Current trends take most of the snow OUT of West Central Ohio now by midnight Saturday night.

Future 3

With the track of this low appearing to be about 150 to 200 miles south, it’s looking very likely that this will be an all snow event. It would be pretty rare at this point to see a shift in the track of the low that far north in just the next 36 hours to give us a chance for some rain mixed in.

With the snow expected, here is a look at the NOAA percentages for the chance for four or more inches of snow. Most of West Central Ohio is in the 40 to 50 percent range. This is by no means set in stone, but at this point I will go conservative and say most of us stand to see between 2 and 4 inches during the day Saturday.

HPC

Kyle Snow Totals 2

Again, a lot can still change from now until Saturday! I’ll keep you informed!

-Kyle

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Bitter Cold Followed By A Weekend Snow Potential

2/18/15

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll get straight to the point! It’s time to get ready for more VERY cold weather, and to add insult to injury, more snow could be headed our way this weekend as well.

First, let’s talk about the extent of the cold weather that we’ll feel over the next 48 hours here in West Central Ohio.

Overnight lows Wednesday night will tumble near 0°, and with that, winds will pick up out of the WNW from 10 to 20 miles per hour. That combo means that wind chills into Thursday morning will likely drop into the 15 to 25 below zero range! Here is a look at the projected wind chills by Thursday morning around 7 AM.

Future Wind Chill Local

Wind chill advisories and warnings have also been put into place by the National Weather Service.

CWA Watch-Warning

Wind Chill Advisory V Warning

But don’t think that Wednesday night will be it! Thursday night will be very similar wind chills once again in the 15 to 25 below zero range along with ACTUAL air temperatures falling around 5 below zero. Bundle up these next few nights!

Ok, now on to the potential for snow this upcoming weekend

An area of low pressure is slated to move in from the southwest on Saturday and Sunday, and with this low will come the possibility for all types of precipitation. As I have said before and will continue to say again, this system is still far, far away! That means that it is still WAY to early to say exactly what type of precipitation, how much and when we’ll see it. Being still about 4 days away I can very general with my expectations, and as the system nears this weekend, will become much more specific with what we’ll see.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

So as of now I choose to look at ENSEMBLE forecasts to try to guide me as to where this low will track. An ensemble forecast takes into consideration not just one single model run, but a collection of runs and data that hopefully lead to trends in tracks and precipitation types. Getting caught up in just one model run this far out is pointless because we all know how quickly things can change, especially when it comes to winter weather.

In the above picture I have drawn three potential tracks of this low Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

1) A northwest of Ohio track. This would mean mainly rain due to the fact that the low would be able to pull up warmer air to the east of it here into Ohio. This would mean rain Saturday night through Sunday morning before seeing a brief switch to light snow Sunday afternoon once the low passed northeast and colder air filters back in.

2) A track straight through Ohio. This is actually the track that ensemble forecasts are hinting at. Here is a look at both the GFS and European ensemble forecast track of the low by Sunday morning.

GFS Ensemble

EURO Ensemble

If indeed the low continues to follow this particular ensemble guidance into the weekend, we’ll likely see both rain and snow here in West Central Ohio. Precipitation would probably move in Saturday afternoon as light snow and as the low drew closer would probably switch over to rain as some warmer air was pulled in Saturday evening. Rain would probably continue into the early part of Sunday morning before the low moved northeast and allowed colder air to filter back in, and thus, switching the precipitation back to snow through early Sunday afternoon. Again, it’s WAY to early to say this for sure and definitely way to early to say how much snow we would possibly see!

3) A track south of Ohio. This track means cold air would continue to dominate into the weekend and as the low passed south, would not be able to pull up any warmer air into West Central Ohio. This would be the best case scenario if you are looking for upwards of 4 inches of snow.

I hope this helps to understand a bit at how I look at winter weather forecasting! Again, it’s still really early, but I just don’t want anyone to be caught off guard.

You can always keep up with the latest radar, temperatures and advisories too with our weather app!

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I’ll definitely be keeping you updated through the week!

-Kyle

 

The Cold Continues!

2/16/15

Who’s ready for more cold? OK, don’t everyone raise your hands at once! ;) But seriously, there won’t be much of a break from these recent bitter cold temperatures all week-long here in West Central Ohio. As a matter of fact, it looks like we have at least another 2 nights with BELOW zero temperatures expected. On Tuesday, we’ll be lucky to warm into the 20’s (I know, balmy, right?) Before yet another shot of arctic cold moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday thanks to a cold front moving through.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

With this front will come light snow showers Tuesday afternoon and evening through Wednesday. Thankfully, it’s not looking as if it will be much snow though, maybe a half of an inch to an inch for the period Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

RPM Future Snow

Once the cold front passes through Tuesday evening, the cold will cover a big chunk of the United States through the remainder of the week.

JETSTREAM

Wednesday and Thursday are looking to be the coldest days of the week. Projected lows from both the GFS and European model are below zero for Wednesday night. Not to mention wind chills that will likely once again be in the 10 to 20 below zero range!

GFS Temps

Euro Temps

It looks as if this will be the pattern for the rest of the month of February. The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from NOAA doesn’t give us much hope.

610temp_new

And again you can always keep up on the latest radar, temperatures and advisories using our weather app!

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Stay warm!

-Kyle