Heavy Rain/Severe Storms Possible Into Next Week

7/10/15

Just what we here in West Central Ohio need to hear right? As we venture through the weekend we’ll start things off with a partly to mostly sunny day on Saturday but by Sunday the chance for showers and thunderstorms will return.

The same stationary front that has been sitting to our south for the last 3 or 4 days will creep back northward as a warm front for the second half of the weekend. AS OF NOW it’s still up in the air as to how far this warm front will be able to lift north. The further north the front lifts, the better chance we will see for both more heavy rain and severe weather. Here is a look at the position of the front based on the RPM forecast model as of late Sunday. (Keep in mind, that I’m thinking any showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will probably be below severe limits.)

Future 1

This front will be the boundary for a VERY warm and unstable air mass into next week. Due to increased heat and humidity CAPE values have the potential to be very high especially Monday here in West Central Ohio. Forecast models are still divided on how far north the front will make it on Monday. The GFS has the front the furthest north and brings the very unstable air mass into NW Ohio on Monday. Here is a look at the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values into Monday evening. Numbers above 2 or 3 thousand j/kg indicate the potential for an explosive storm environment. Notice much of the region is in the 3 to 4 thousand j/kg range.

GFS CAPE

When you couple that high CAPE with a warm front in the region that definitely catches a meteorologists attention! This scenario for Monday is still 3 days away and is definitely not set in stone, just something to watch over the next 24 to 48 hours to see if it pans out or not.

Here is a look at the NAM forecast model CAPE on Monday. Notice it’s shifted further west and south but still extremely high!

NAM CAPE

Basically the point I’m trying to make is that somewhere in the Southern Great Lakes region will be in line for a severe weather outbreak on Monday. It’s all dependent on where exactly that warm front sets up. You can bet I’ll be watching, especially Monday!

If you haven’t yet, check out our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and any watches/warnings that may be issued!

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-Kyle

 

 

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday With an Active Weather Pattern Ahead

6/9/15

After a couple of stormy days here in West Central Ohio on Sunday and Monday, a dry day today will likely be the last in the region for the remainder of the week. Temperatures and overall mugginess will really climb into Wednesday out ahead of a weak cold front expected to drop in out of the north. Highs on Wednesday have a very good chance to reach into the upper 80’s along with dew points into the upper 60’s that will make for quite the “sticky day” outdoors. Here is a look at projected highs and dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Future Temperatures

Future Dew Points

A warm and humid air mass combined with a weak cold front edging into West Central Ohio Wednesday afternoon will set the stage for thunderstorms to potentially develop during the afternoon/evening hours. As of now West Central Ohio is under a “slight risk” for severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

When I look for severe weather outbreaks I generally look for three things. CAPE, Some sort of trigger and wind shear. In Wednesday’s case, two of these three elements appear to be available.

CAPE- You have probably heard me talk about CAPE before. The acronym stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. CAPE is a large product of temperature and dew point, if the temperatures are high along with dew points (or moisture in the air) CAPE generally rises. With such high temperatures and dew points Wednesday CAPE values across West Central Ohio should easily rise above 2,000 j/kg which is getting moderately high. This would be more than enough potential energy to spark off thunderstorms. Here is a look at CAPE values from both the NAM and GFS Wednesday evening.

GFS CAPE

NAM CAPE

A Trigger: In this case it’s a cold front. A weak cold front will drop in out of the north tomorrow afternoon providing just enough lift necessary to spark off thunderstorms in a very warm and moist environment. Here is a look at the front placement Wednesday afternoon and evening along with showers and storms developing along it.

FUTURE 1

FUTURE 2

Wind Shear: In this case there is VERY little wind shear available with this set up, which is a good thing if you don’t want long-lived severe thunderstorms. Wind shear can be best characterized by a change in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere. Without very good wind shear Wednesday storms will likely be confined to a very small area along the cold front where they can tap into the high CAPE. Because of the lack of wind shear these storms will likely die as quickly as they flare up. It’s the high wind shear that helps to maintain thunderstorms once they develop, and in Wednesday’s case there isn’t much at all.

So what do I think?

I definitely think scattered storms will develop somewhere in NW Ohio late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Once the storms develop they will likely grow very fast due to a pretty unstable atmosphere that’s in place thanks to high CAPE. These storms probably won’t be very long-lived with the window for these storms developing being between 4 to 9 PM. Because of the low wind shear I don’t foresee much of a tornado threat, but there will be the chance for some very gusty winds that could lead to some isolated damage. Hail will also be a possibility, but not so much as the wind in my opinion. Overall it’s a pretty low-end chance for severe weather, but something that I will definitely be keeping an eye on all day Wednesday!

Also! Don’t forget to stay up with the latest radar and warnings with our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

Monday Afternoon Severe Weather Threat For West Central Ohio

A cold front will move through the region later today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to Ohio.

prog12hr

As this front moves in there is the chance it could spark some severe weather here in Ohio. Here is a look at the current severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Monday.

day1otlk_1300

Notice that all of Ohio is under a “Slight Risk” area. This means that the overall threat for severe weather is low with the biggest concern this afternoon and evening being some isolated damaging wind and hail. There is the chance for an isolated tornado or two in the Great Lakes region. Here is a look at the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point on the map from the SPC. Based on the map below the overall chance is low, but 5 percent over Ohio is worth noting.

day1probotlk_1300_torn

One thing that could in fact dull our chance for severe weather this afternoon here in West Central could be our current cloud cover hanging around much of the morning and early afternoon. A look at the high-resolution visible satellite across the region shows very few breaks in the clouds through NW Ohio and Indiana.

visible

If we manage to stay under mostly cloudy skies our chance for severe weather will lessen simply due to the fact that our daytime heating potential won’t be reached. Basically, if we see some good sunshine late this morning/early afternoon our chance for severe storms goes up. If we see mainly cloudy skies and no sunshine, it goes down.

You can see here based on the HRRR which is a high-resolution weather forecast model used for severe weather that the CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy) are fairly low. They will generally be between 500 and 1,000 j/kg. Here is a look at CAPE around 4 PM this afternoon.

CAPE

These are not high CAPE values by any means. But there is also one other ingredient that may be strong enough to overcome this low instability to help form stronger storms.

Wind shear

As this cold front moves through wind shear values look pretty high. Wind shear is any change in wind speed OR direction with height in the atmosphere. This change helps to maintain and grow thunderstorms. A quick look at wind shear values along the front as it passes through this afternoon look to be more than enough to fire up thunderstorms in conjunction with the lower CAPE values I noted above. Here is a look at shear around 4 PM this afternoon.

shear

In the above map we’re generally looking at 30 to 40 knots of shear in the 0 to 6 kilometer level of our atmosphere. 30 to 40 knots is pretty high, anything above 50 or so is getting VERY high and more than enough to spark a pretty wide outbreak of severe weather.

So what do I think?

Forcing mechanism (cold front), check. Wind shear this afternoon, check. Instability (CAPE) half check.

I generally look for these three ingredients to all come together at the same time for severe weather. They do a decent job of this at best this afternoon but I have seen much better collaboration in the past. Because of this, our overall threat is low but damaging wind, hail or even an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out this afternoon/evening between 2 PM and about 8 PM.

I’ll be sure to keep you all updated through the afternoon! And remember, you can download our weather app to keep up on the latest radar along with watches/warnings that may be issued.

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-Kyle

 

 

 

A Frosty End To The Month Of April?

As we near the end of April, temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s are becoming increasingly unpopular here in West Central Ohio. But that is what we can expect in the coming week as highs will struggle to break 50 degrees for the remainder of the week ahead. As a matter of fact, temperatures are expected to drop near freezing both Wednesday and Thursday night. Here is a look at The anticipated low temperatures Thursday morning.

Future 1

With temperatures that cold this time of year it’s important to protect any sensitive plants. And even though it may seem as if this is late in the season to be seeing frost/freezing conditions, it’s still pretty early based on historical averages.

Last Frost

The bad news is that temperatures look as if they will stay anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees below average through the end of April and into May. Just look at the jet stream pattern by this time next week. The main energy from the jet looks to stay south of Ohio, this keeping the focus for wetter conditions and warmer temperatures well south.

Viewer Photo 5

Here is a look at NOAA’s 8 to 14 day temperature outlook through May 5th confirming that expected pattern. .

814temp_new

Stay warm everyone! And if you haven’t yet, please check out our weather app! It’s a great tool to stay up on all the latest West Central Ohio weather!

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-Kyle

 

 

Wednesday Night And Thursday Severe Threat For West Central Ohio

A nearly stationary front has plagued the region all week-long and will eventually lift to the north as a warm front later Wednesday night. We have already felt the presence of this front lifting north with temperatures approaching 70 degrees for much of  West Central Ohio today. As this front continues to shift further north into Thursday morning it’s looking as if we can expect another round of showers and thunderstorms during the 9 AM to 2 PM timeframe

 

Kyle Futurecast Thurs Noon

There is the possibility that few of these storms could turn severe, but the timing of them won’t be that great for a widespread severe weather event due to them moving in during the morning and not being able to take full advantage of daytime heating. If some of these storms do end up becoming severe Thursday morning/early afternoon, the biggest threat would be hail and damaging wind. After this cluster of rain and thunderstorms moves through we’ll likely see another break in the rain into the evening hours as we wait for a strong cold front to approach. This is when we’ll see the best chance for severe weather on Thursday.

Kyle Futurecast Thurs 8pm

As you can see from the picture above we’ll probably see a break in the precipitation on Thursday much like we did on Wednesday into the afternoon. But any storms that can fire later in the day (afternoon and evening) would absolutely have the potential to be severe here in West Central Ohio with damaging wind, hail and even perhaps an isolated tornado possible. Because of this threat a very large area is included in The Storm Prediction Center’s Thursday severe weather outlook. It’s going to be important to be weather aware all day long.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Late in the evening the aforementioned cold front will move into Indiana and Ohio by midnight. Severe thunderstorms will likely develop along the front through Illinois during the late afternoon and eventually track towards Ohio into the overnight hours. Here is a look at our Futurecast around 1 AM as that line of possible storms moves in.

Friday 1 AM

This will definitely have to be watched, any of these storms that can hold together into the overnight hours here in West Central Ohio could easily become severe with damaging wind, hail and perhaps an isolated tornado possible. I will be sure to keep everyone updated, and remember, you can get the latest radar and all the watches and warnings on our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Late Week Severe Weather Threat For West Central Ohio

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been on and off here in West Central Ohio for our Tuesday but will have the potential to be on the stronger side later this week. As of now, our Wednesday will play out much like what we say for Tuesday thanks to a stationary front draped across the region. By late Wednesday evening this front will lift back to the north of West Central Ohio making way for a cold front late Thursday and Thursday night.

Future 1

For Wednesday as this front moves into the Midwest there will be a chance for severe storms to develop. This threat will stay off to our west though with just a VERY SLIGHT chance for strong storms here.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

By Thursday this cold front will begin to shift east, you’ll notice the threat areas shifting too.

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

As you can see from the picture above, West Central Ohio is just on the edge of the yellow slight risk area, this is because the aforementioned cold front will be moving through Thursday night. I’m thinking that at some point during Thursday afternoon and evening thunderstorms will begin to develop in the “enhanced risk” area where they will likely be at their strongest. These storms will then move into Indiana by late evening Thursday and then possibly (if they can hold together) move into West Central Ohio after midnight and into Friday morning. This is something that will definitely have to be watched as any storms make their way east. ‘ll be sure to keep you updated!

If you haven’t yet, be sure to download our weather app to stay up on our latest radar and forecasts!

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-Kyle

A Wet And Potentially Stormy Week Ahead

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend! We have had some very nice and cooperative weather here in Ohio the past few days with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s along with a lot of sunshine! But active weather is expected this upcoming week with several chances for rain, and yes, even the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

The culprit for all the active weather will be a stationary front that will basically slowly meander north and south over Ohio to begin the week.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

By late Monday this front will become the focus of rain and possible thunderstorms thanks to a surge of moisture moving in out of the south and west. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night through about noon on Tuesday and then possibly once again late Tuesday evening as another disturbance moves along the stationary front. It’s important to note that in situations like this when there is a front stalled out across the area temperatures can become very tricky to predict. As of now I’m saying mid 60’s for both Monday and Tuesday, but if this front hangs a little further north for longer than expected, temperatures could easily surge into the low 70’s, especially on Tuesday. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning and then once again late Tuesday evening into Wednesday night. There will be thunderstorms with both rounds of rain, but as of now it looks like they will stay below severe limits.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

There is also the chance that rainfall totals both Monday and Tuesday could easily eclipse 1 inch here in West Central Ohio. Flooding concerns will have to be watched.

Now on to later in the week.

Eventually by late Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned stationary front will lift back north as a warm front and eventually allow for a strong cold front to sweep in from the West. With the warm front lifting to the north a lot of warm and moist air will be in place throughout much of the Midwest. This will set the stage for potential severe weather from Kansas to Indiana Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front moves across the country. This front will be fueled by some increased upper level energy that can be seen by looking at the jet stream. Here is a look at that energy both Wednesday and Thursday. Look for the light to dark blue colors in the first image over the four corners region and then those same colors shifted east over the Midwest in the second image. That is where the upper level energy will best interact with surface level heating and moisture.

Wedn Upper Energy

Thursday Upper Energy

It’s no surprise that where these strong upper level winds are coinciding with surface heating and moisture is where the chance for severe weather will be. Here is a look at where the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for potential severe weather on Wednesday.

Severe Wed

And Then on Thursday with an even better chance for severe weather highlighted by the area shaded in red.

Severe Thu

You have probably noticed that Ohio is NOT in the highlighted area for either Wednesday or Thursday. That doesn’t mean we won’t get any rain or thunderstorms, it just means the best chance for SEVERE thunderstorms will likely stay to our West until late Thursday night and Friday when the cold front will move through. It’s still too early to say exactly when the front will move through, but as of now it looks like that will happen sometime late Thursday night/early Friday morning. If that’s the case, that wouldn’t be a very favorable time for severe weather to develop. You can bet I will be watching this DEVELOPING situation all week-long and keep you updated of any and all changes to the forecast!

Remember to download our weather app too!

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-Kyle

 

 

Thursday Severe Weather Risk For West Central Ohio

We’re in the midst of a nice warm up here in West Central Ohio for our Wednesday with highs today easily surpassing the 60 degree mark with PLENTY of sunshine to go around! But with the warmer temperatures will come a very good chance for rain and thunderstorms. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday, I’m putting emphasis on Thursday afternoon and evening.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

As you can see we are in the “Very Slight” region of this outlook with the better “Slight Risk” area off to our Southwest. This doesn’t mean that we’re completely in the clear as far as severe weather is concerned though, there is still the chance we could see isolated damaging winds and perhaps some small hail late in the day as a cold front moves through.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

As an area of low pressure and warm front move through the region late Thursday morning, we’ll see on and off rain showers into the early afternoon here in West Central Ohio along with isolated thunderstorms.

Future 1

Future 2

This isn’t when I think we’ll see our chance for severe weather though. There will likely be a break in the rain from the early afternoon hours until the evening here in West Central Ohio before the actual cold front moves in by 7 or 8 PM Thursday evening.

Future 3

It’s when the front moves in that we’ll see our chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio, in the 6 PM to 10 PM time frame.

Future 4

There are a couple of reasons the better chance for severe weather will remain off to our southwest Thursday afternoon and evening.

1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday morning will limit our daytime heating with generally cloudy skies expected most of the day. With temperatures expected to warm near 70 degrees, any sunshine we get would really help to de-stabilize the atmosphere. The problem is, I don’t think we’ll see much sunshine so the severity of any storms will be limited.

2) Dew points will probably only make it up into the upper 50’s. Here is a look at the projected dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening. From the GFS model.

GFS Dewpoint

And The NAM.

NAM Dewpoint

Notice the more moisture rich air (higher dew points) is off to our SW. Generally speaking, as a cold front moves through the higher the dew point, the better the chance for thunderstorms and potential severe weather.

So overall what do I think?

I think that our threat for severe weather  is pretty low for late Thursday. Again, I think as the cold front moves through we could see a storm or two that produces severe wind gusts into the 50 to 60 mph range, but those will be few and far between. On and off rain will last through Friday as well with the region probably totaling anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation by the time this system clears out late Friday.

GFS Rainfall

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! And be sure to download our weather app for live radar, video forecasts and severe weather alerts!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

My Top 5 Weather Related Movies Of All Time!

Here it is, My personal top five list of weather related movies! The only real criteria to be part of this list was that some aspect of the weather or a weather person play some sort of central role in the plot of the movie. I’m also interested in what movies you think I may have left off this list. So without further ado here is this weatherman’s list of his favorite weather related movies!

5) The Weatherman

Weatherman

Nick Cage plays a successful Chicago weatherman who’s personal and family life is falling apart before his eyes. He gets very little respect out on the streets with fans regularly throwing food and shouting all kinds of obscenities at him. He is torn between staying in the Midwest and moving to NYC where he would be a part of a national news broadcast. Overall, this movie paints a pretty dark picture of my profession that I’m thankful to say is not true (at least from my experience). It’s definitely a dark comedy that is worth a watch, especially if you’re a Nicholas Cage fan.

4) LA Story

LA Story

Steve Martin plays a wacky Los Angeles weatherman who has very little weather to forecast other than 72 degrees and sunshine. Martin’s character, Harris Telemacher, grows bored of his path in life and embarks on a journey to find some meaning sparked by a broken down car and a malfunctioning traffic sign along the highway. This movie is in no way nearly as funny as some of Martin’s other hits like “The Jerk” but if you’re a Steve Martin fan as I am, you always get a good laugh from his over the top style of comedy.

3) Twister

Twister

I don’t think I know a meteorologist who doesn’t love this movie. It’s not the case for me, but I would argue that this movie is singlehandedly responsible for more people deciding to be meteorologists than any other flick. This is the movie that made weather interesting to the masses, and to use a popular cliché, it was a “game changer” in the world of weather.

2) Wizard Of Oz

Wizard

A Kansas tornado that magically changes a dull, black and white world into one of magic and colors! Who doesn’t love this classic movie? This was one of the first movies I can ever remember seeing, and I’m sure that’s the case too for many reading this as well :)

1) Groundhog Day

Groundhog Day

Ironically, I could watch this movie over and over and over! This is a clear cut #1 for me. This movie is not only at the top of my list of best weather related movies but also favorite movies of all time. If you have never seen this movie, rent it or look it up on Netflix NOW!

I also asked our other two meteorologists here at the station about their top five list.

Elise’s List

5) Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs

4) Into The Storm

3) Twister

2) Waterworld

1) Wizard Of Oz

Allison’s List

5) Twister

4) Perfect Storm

3) Day After Tomorrow

2) Wizard Of Oz

1) Titanic

 

 

Our First Spring Chance For Thunderstorms In West Central Ohio

Even though accumulating snow is falling here in West Central Ohio this evening, temperatures will be quick to rebound here in the region with readings warm enough by Wednesday for potential thunderstorms.

A warm front will lift toward West Central Ohio on Tuesday bringing warmer temperatures and a chance for rain after sunset. Once this front passes north of the area by late in the day Tuesday, we’ll feel temperatures warm into the 40’s and then eventually surge into the 60’s by Wednesday afternoon and evening! An area of low pressure will accompany the warm front on Tuesday and because of this we’ll see our rain chance on the increase after sunset Tuesday and into Tuesday night. A rumble of thunder Tuesday night can’t ruled out, but our better chance for storms will come late Wednesday.

FUTURE

Behind the low pictured above will be another system that will approach during the day on Wednesday. As you can see in the picture below, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front as is moves towards the Great Lakes.

FUTURE 1

There is the potential for a few of these storms to be severe, but mainly to the SOUTH and WEST of us here in Ohio. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Wednesday. For now we’re just in a risk for general thunderstorms here in West Central Ohio. (you might also notice that there are more outlook categories in the Storm Prediction Center’s forecasts, for more on that change please check out their website here )

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

For now, temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 60’s on Wednesday. If those temperatures can reach 70 or possibly higher that outlook will very likely shift further north. I’ll be sure to keep you all updated!

-Kyle

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