We’re in the midst of a nice warm up here in West Central Ohio for our Wednesday with highs today easily surpassing the 60 degree mark with PLENTY of sunshine to go around! But with the warmer temperatures will come a very good chance for rain and thunderstorms. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday, I’m putting emphasis on Thursday afternoon and evening.
As you can see we are in the “Very Slight” region of this outlook with the better “Slight Risk” area off to our Southwest. This doesn’t mean that we’re completely in the clear as far as severe weather is concerned though, there is still the chance we could see isolated damaging winds and perhaps some small hail late in the day as a cold front moves through.
As an area of low pressure and warm front move through the region late Thursday morning, we’ll see on and off rain showers into the early afternoon here in West Central Ohio along with isolated thunderstorms.
This isn’t when I think we’ll see our chance for severe weather though. There will likely be a break in the rain from the early afternoon hours until the evening here in West Central Ohio before the actual cold front moves in by 7 or 8 PM Thursday evening.
It’s when the front moves in that we’ll see our chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio, in the 6 PM to 10 PM time frame.
There are a couple of reasons the better chance for severe weather will remain off to our southwest Thursday afternoon and evening.
1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday morning will limit our daytime heating with generally cloudy skies expected most of the day. With temperatures expected to warm near 70 degrees, any sunshine we get would really help to de-stabilize the atmosphere. The problem is, I don’t think we’ll see much sunshine so the severity of any storms will be limited.
2) Dew points will probably only make it up into the upper 50’s. Here is a look at the projected dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening. From the GFS model.
And The NAM.
Notice the more moisture rich air (higher dew points) is off to our SW. Generally speaking, as a cold front moves through the higher the dew point, the better the chance for thunderstorms and potential severe weather.
So overall what do I think?
I think that our threat for severe weather is pretty low for late Thursday. Again, I think as the cold front moves through we could see a storm or two that produces severe wind gusts into the 50 to 60 mph range, but those will be few and far between. On and off rain will last through Friday as well with the region probably totaling anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation by the time this system clears out late Friday.
I’ll be sure to keep you updated! And be sure to download our weather app for live radar, video forecasts and severe weather alerts!