Our first real severe threat of 2012

It looks like Spring severe weather will be making an early appearance in WC Ohio on Friday with damaging winds, hail and even a few tornadoes possible. The set up is one typical of mid-spring with a very potent area of low pressure tracking though our region.

As of now, it looks as if the time frame for storms will be tomorrow afternoon through early evening. Here are some of the reasons a significant outbreak is possible: First we will have a mature and deep area of low pressure moving through tomorrow afternoon.

Along with the low and the cold front’s ability to provide lift in the atmosphere, a strong upper level wind field will be in place to maintain storms over a long period of time as they develop and move through. Here is a look at the jet stream tomorrow evening with darker colors showing higher winds.

With these conditions in place on Friday, I would think a tornado watch in our area tomorrow is a good possibility. Remember a WATCH means conditions are favorable for tornadoes. A WARNING means one has been spotted or detected on radar. There is one limiting factor tomorrow to our severe weather potential and that is what we call CAPE. CAPE is a measure of how unstable the atmosphere will be. The best moisture and warmth will be just South of us, so that could limit the severity of storms in our area. Higher CAPE values for tomorrow afternoon and evening are seen here. With the highest values over Southern Indiana, Kentucky and Southwest Ohio.

It looks like Spring severe weather season is off to an early start. Tomorrow looks to be a busy day.

Kyle

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4 thoughts on “Our first real severe threat of 2012

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