Things are beginning to take shape with the expected severe weather in the region as a strong area of low pressure develops. Here is a map with surface dewpoints to show where the best moisture to fuel the storms is, the higher dew points are indicated in the green colors.
North of those higher dewpoints is where we find the warm front. That warm front lifting North towards us this morning is spawning showers and thunderstorms but most of them are staying below severe limits. By about 5 PM this evening this high resolution model shows the best moisture and instability (CAPE) mainly to the South of us in WC Ohio.
This is the main reason the worst of the storms should stay to our South later this afternoon. We’ll likely experience some severe weather with damaging winds being the main threat between about 1 PM and 6 PM as all of this works to the Northeast. Isolated tornadoes are still a possibility, but the best chances for a widespread tornado outbreak will remain to the South where the more unstable atmosphere resides. Watching this one closely!