Friday (3/30/12) Severe Threat

An area of low pressure will move towards WC Ohio on Friday bringing with it showers and thunderstorms, some of them potentially severe. This map shows a surface low over North Central Indiana at about 2 PM tomorrow afternoon.

A warm front will lie to the East of this low making it about as far North as Route 30. That is important because the further North the front can lift, the more warmth and moisture can lift North, increasing our chances for severe weather. Like the past few storms, it looks as if most of West Central Ohio will be on the Northern edge of the severe threat. Here is a map of the predicted CAPE tomorrow afternoon. Values over over 1000 j/kg in this case indicate that the atmosphere will become relatively unstable tomorrow afternoon aiding in storm development. This forecast model keeps those values confined to the South of Route 30.

Of course this could change by tomorrow, but as of now it looks as if the low will track right across WC Ohio early tomorrow afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. South and East of the low where the best instability in the atmosphere will reside, that’s the area where the best severe potential will be with hail and high winds being the biggest threats. As of Thursday evening the Storm Prediction Center has us in a slight risk area (Notice we are mainly on the northern edge of the outlook)

Overall, I don’t think we’re looking at a major outbreak by any means. But keep an eye to the skies especially early tomorrow afternoon into the early evening hours!

Kyle

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