Possible Severe Weather (June 29th, 2012)

With a VERY hot and unstable air mass in place today we have the possibility to see strong to severe thunderstorms developing along a weak cold front that is sitting just to our South.

Currently we have a severe thunderstorm WATCH in effect for most of Central and Northern Indiana in anticipation of showers and thunderstorms that are likely to develop later this afternoon.

The storms that will develop over the watch area will ride along the front through Indiana along an area rich with moisture and CAPE values approaching 6,000 (basically this means there is a very unstable atmosphere in place over Indiana) Here is a look at the CAPE which measures the atmospheres instability and ability to produce quickly developing thunderstorms.(Values at 2,000 to 3,000 and above is on the high-end of CAPE)

As you can see, the highest values are into Central Indiana and SW Ohio, because of this expect any thunderstorms that move into WC Ohio to mostly stay South of route 30. Here is a High Resolution Model showing where the storms are predicted to be around 5 PM this evening. As you can see the strongest storms are into SW Ohio.

If storms can develop and move into parts of WC Ohio later this afternoon and evening I would expect a line of showers and thunderstorms to impact mainly areas South of Route 30 between 4 and 8 PM. The biggest threat would be the potential for damaging wind and hail. I’ll be watching and keeping you updated!

Kyle

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