For the second time in less than 7 days the region will once again be under the gun for severe weather. I’ll be watching a developing area of low pressure along a stationary front through the day Thursday. The low will strengthen throughout the course of the day thanks to an upper level trough that will work in out of the Northwest into the afternoon and evening hours. Here is the anticipated location of it all by tomorrow afternoon and evening.
The key to whether or not we get severe weather will be highly dependent on the track of the surface low pressure. The further North the low tracks the better chance we have for severe weather. The latest model runs have the low tracking generally through Central Ohio and up into the Northeast part of the state. If WC Ohio ends up North of the low, our chances for severe weather will decrease significantly as opposed if WC Ohio were South of the low track. This is something that will be watched very closely into the day Thursday. The National Weather Service has most of Ohio under a slight risk for severe storms as of their latest outlook….
A couple of things I’ll be paying close attention to tomorrow….
1) How much sunshine we can manage during the afternoon hours. The more sunshine we get the more unstable the atmosphere will become, this will help to better fuel any potential thunderstorms.
2) The track of the low. If the low tracks South of WC Ohio most of the warmer more moist air will not be able to make it into the region. If the low tracks over WC Ohio and North it will be able to pull up the needed warmth and moisture to fuel the thunderstorms.
3) When does the upper level trough fully interact with the surface low pressure? If the upper level trough can begin to catch up with the surface low earlier in the day, the low will not only strengthen more quickly but it will also be more likely to take a more Northerly track. This would no doubt mean a better chance for severe weather here in WC Ohio. If the upper trough takes longer to interact with the surface low it will be more likely to stay South and not strengthen as quickly.
The main threats with any severe weather on Thursday will be damaging winds and hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either, but as of now that chance is low. I’ll be watching tomorrow and keeping you updated!