I’m still watching a potential Winter Storm set to impact the region late Sunday into the day Monday. Some of the newer Saturday model runs are in and there are a few things of interest to note. Winter storm watches are up and set to go into effect for almost all of our counties here in West Central Sunday morning. But the region likely to experience the heaviest snowfall (6 or more inches) is looking more and more like it will fall in-between the Lima and Dayton areas. Here is a map by the NWS highlighting the percentage chance for 6 inches or MORE of snow.
Most forecast models continue to put the Lima area right on the Northern edge of the heaviest snow, as of now I would say that Auglaize, Mercer, Shelby and Logan counties have the best chance in our viewing area of seeing 5 or 6 inches+ of snow late Sunday into Monday morning. With more of a 3 to 6 range possible North of that into Allen, Van Wert, Hardin, Putnam and Hancock. Here is a look at some other snowfall forecasts from different models.
The GFS has actually been the most consistent over the week has abruptly shifted the heaviest snow WAY South this morning. I’m going to chalk this one up as an outlier. Weather forecasting is not about just ONE forecast model run! It is all about studying trends of different models over days.
The European has been pretty consistent the last couple of days (and has been the most consistent all Winter) This model shows the heaviest precipitation in-between Lima and Dayton.
The NAM from this morning is pretty in line with the European with the heaviest snow in-between Lima and Dayton.
The RPM, a more short-term model has slowly been pushing the heavier snow to the South of Lima. But I think it’s safe to say (at least for now) most forecasts point to the potential for 5 or 6 inches or more to be to the South of Lima.
Wes Houx will be hard at work tonight watching the next round of forecasts that come out! So be sure to watch him at 6 and 11!