Thursday Severe Weather UPDATE

A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of our viewing area until 5PM. This watch from the National Weather Service has been classified as a Particularly Dangerous Situation Watch or PDS watch. Typically when this type of watch is issued, the development of several tornadoes is expected within the watch area.

TORNADO WATCH

Since we are on the very EASTERN edge of this Tornado Watch, our threat for the severe weather looks like it won’t come until closer to the 3 to 6PM time period. The latest short-term models both seem to agree that the line of severe storms will not begin to move into West Central Ohio until later in the afternoon.

HERE IS THE RPM AT ABOUT 4 PM

RPM 4 PM

HERE IS THE HRRR AT ABOUT 4 PM

HRRR 4 PM

I talked about Wind Shear in my previous post, and no doubt about it, the strongest shear (change in wind speed or direction with height) will be focused right on Northern Indiana with wind speeds at about 5,000 feet screaming at over 100 mph!

WINDS at 850

Couple this with daytime heating and you have a very prime set up for a tornado outbreak. The Tornado Watch is only until 5 PM, but I suspect that our threat for severe weather in West Central Ohio will be more towards the late afternoon and evening hours.

Please stay tuned to Your Hometown Stations through the day for breaking weather coverage and our Facebook page for updates! If things get going later this afternoon we’ll do our best to keep you updated through social media.

-Kyle

 

 

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Thursday Severe Weather Threat

Damaging winds, hail, and even the possibility of an isolated tornado can be expected as we venture through our Thursday thanks to a frontal system very similar to last week. Here is how I think the storms will unfold as of Wednesday evening…….

A warm front will slowly lift North through the region tonight allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms into the early morning hours Thursday. Severe storms in Illinois and Indiana will gradually move East along a warm front overnight and gradually weaken as they head towards West Central Ohio. Even though a gradual weakening trend is expected, a strong thunderstorm can’t be ruled out into tomorrow morning. The latest forecasts have decided not to push a warm front as far North as previously expected, because of this I have upped the chance for showers and thunderstorms into tomorrow morning along with dropped temperatures a few degrees for Thursday. Here is a look at the NWS’ short term model (HRRR) showing showers and t-storms in the region tomorrow morning.

HRRR Thurs AM

By tomorrow afternoon, most models show a warm front that has moved to our North. What is interesting though is that the latest short-term model runs have been picking up on showers and thunderstorms in the region developing once again early tomorrow afternoon. Our own RPM model is showing a potential squall line moving through tomorrow early afternoon around 2 or 3 PM.

Thursday Afternoon Future

My previous forecasts have not accounted for thunderstorms moving through early tomorrow afternoon. But now that short-term models are picking up on this possibility a couple of things would likely change:

1) Damaging winds and hail would be possible earlier than anticipated.  Originally I was holding off on the chance for severe weather until the late evening/overnight timeframe. If this trend in the models continues, that could change.

2) Temperatures will NOT warm quite as much. We’re probably not getting to 80 if we have showers and t-storms to deal with both in the morning and early afternoon. This would limit our overall instability, potentially lessening the severity of storms later in the evening and overnight.

Even though I’m now including a better chance for thunderstorms during the day Thursday, that doesn’t change the fact that I think our best chance for severe weather won’t come until the late evening/overnight time period. One thing all models have been VERY much agreeing on is a strong cold front plowing through the region into West Central Ohio in the midnight to 3 or 4 AM timeframe.

Futurecast Early Friday AM

It looks as if the biggest threat as the front moves through will be damaging winds. But with very strong winds expected both at the surface and into the upper levels of the atmosphere, isolated tornadoes look to be a possibility. This will be a classic HIGH SHEAR low INSTABILITY environment. Winds at the surface as these storms move through will be out of the SOUTH at about 20 to 30 mph with stronger gusts. Only about 2000 feet above the surface, winds will be roaring at close to 70 mph.

NAM 925

When you have a change in wind SPEED or DIRECTION with height, that is called wind shear. We are expecting high winds through every layer of the atmosphere along with some directional shear too, this would lead to favorable tornadic conditions. HOWEVER, there is expected to be VERY little instability. This parameter is measured by CAPE (this is the atmospheres ability to produce rapidly developing thunderstorms) and with it being the middle of the night, little to no CAPE Is expected.

GFS CAPE

For an ideal severe weather situation you want to see both high CAPE and high WIND SHEAR. With high wind shear, it’s a safe bet to say that damaging winds will be the biggest concern tomorrow night. I’ll keep you updated!

-Kyle

April 10th and 11th Severe Threat

We broke a record high Tuesday in Lima set back in 2001 by a degree with a high of 83! With these types of temperatures I don’t think there is any doubt that Spring has arrived! One reason we had such warm temperatures was the slow Northward movement of a nearly stationary front into Southern Michigan. This allowed warm air to easily move in out of the South and kept showers, thunderstorms and most important, cloud cover to our North. This front will slowly sag South once again tomorrow continuing to be the focus for showers and thunderstorms across West Central Ohio.

Regional Sat-Rad FRONTS

With the front across the viewing area there will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. The National Weather Service has West Central Ohio under a slight risk for severe weather with higher chances further West.

Kyle Convective Outlook

Notice that the severe threat across Ohio coincides with the stationary front dropping South during the day tomorrow. With more cloud cover and rain expected through the day, I do not anticipate temperatures quite as warm as Tuesday. However, if we do manage to see some sunshine into the afternoon hours and we do manage to warm into the mid to upper 70’s the atmosphere will have a better chance a destabilizing. With the front in the vicinity acting as a trigger, strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are a possibility tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Bottom line, the more sunshine and warmer the temperature, the better chance for severe weather we’ll have. It’s also important to note that while a widespread outbreak of tornadoes is NOT expected, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, it’s that time of year. But the better chance for an isolated tornado looks to be off West along a cold front (in the area highlighted in red).

Also something interesting to note, one short-term model (RPM) shows a definitive squall line moving through WC Ohio late tomorrow afternoon. Just something to keep an eye on….

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast Wed

The main squall line with a cold front will likely push through early Thursday morning with a strong cold front. But depending on how much activity we see during the day on Wednesday, our atmosphere may not be very favorable for severe weather with the worst of the storms possibly staying to our South.

Futurecast

Of course, this is an evolving situation. One that I’m paying very close attention too. Just know that the possibility is there over the next couple of days for severe weather. Be sure to catch Your News Now for all the latest updates later tonight and with Brian Schroeder Wednesday AM.

-Kyle