Possible Severe Weather And A Big Warm Up!

Temperatures today are feeling much warmer here in West Central Ohio thanks to a warm front that has lifted through the region bringing highs in the 80’s along with increasing moisture/humidity in the region. It’s along and just South of this warm front where the best chance for severe weather lies. WARM FRONT

The NWS still has most of West Central Ohio under a slight risk for severe weather, with better chances mainly North of Route 30 closer to the warm front.

TODAY

Because of the presence of the warm front just to our North, very warm and moist conditions have been allowed to work into the region. The warm front acts as a trigger for showers and thunderstorms, especially later this afternoon and evening. But because this front is off to the North of us into Southern Michigan, our chance for severe storms is not as high as into parts of extreme NW Ohio and Southern Michigan. In these areas closer to the front there is also a chance for an isolated tornado or two. The warm front not only acts as a trigger for storms but it also creates a change in wind direction near the surface which helps to create possible rotating thunderstorms. Here is a look at where the NWS has highlighted a low-end chance for a tornado. Notice it is along the warm front.

TORNADO RISK

Our biggest threat here in West Central Ohio will be the possibility of damaging wind, and to a lesser extent hail. BUT an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out!

Short term models confirm that the majority of the activity will form mainly along route 30 and North into this afternoon and evening. Here is a look at the predicted radar by about 6 PM this evening.

hrrr

All in all, with MUCH warmer and humid conditions and a warm front in the region there is an elevated risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. I’ll be watching very closely!

-Kyle

 

 

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Wednesday Severe Weather Chance Followed By A Big Cool Down!

For the last few days West Central Ohio has been on the Eastern edge of a severe weather threat thanks to a system slowly making its way East across the United States. The system has been weakening over the last day or so, there were 28 reports of tornadoes on Monday including the devastating EF-5 tornado in Moore, Oklahoma. On Tuesday there were several tornado watches issued, but there was not a single report of a tornado, a good sign indeed for the same system making its way through the region today. Our biggest threats here in West Central Ohio still seem to be damaging wind, and to a lesser extent, large hail. We are under a slight risk for severe weather now for the third day in a row.

today outlook

On both Monday and Tuesday we were HIGHLY dependent on the destabilization of the atmosphere during the daytime hours for any storms to materialize. That simply didn’t happen. TODAY we are dependent on that once again, but any destabilization that occurs will have help from higher wind speeds in the upper level layers of the atmosphere (wind shear) to help maintain any storms that do form, something we didn’t have the previous two days. Here is the upper trough moving over the region with the higher winds in the trough right over Ohio.

500 MB

I’m not very confident that the atmosphere will be able to destabilize enough for stronger storms to fire, but if it does, damaging winds and hail will be a possibility especially late this afternoon and evening. I’ll be watching VERY closely this afternoon and evening! Tune into Your Hometown Lima Stations later for all the latest.

On another note….

Once the cold front passes through late this evening temperatures will drop by about 20 to 25 degrees for the rest of the week and into the Memorial Day weekend. It won’t be quite like last year with temperatures close to 90 degrees, but we should be able to see a good deal of sunshine with highs in the mid to upper 60’s through the weekend 🙂

-Kyle

Tuesday, May 21st Severe Threat

West Central Ohio continues to face a low-end severe weather threat after a very warm, but calm day on Monday. Our biggest threats into the afternoon and evening hours will be for damaging wind and hail with a very low chance for an isolated tornado here into Ohio, Indiana and Southern Michigan. Here is a look at the National Weather Service’s tornado outlook for the remainder of today.

Today Tor

Notice from the map that the highest chance for tornadoes is well to the South of us. The area that bears most watching this afternoon has thankfully shifted South and East of the Oklahoma City area, more specifically the city of Moore that took a direct hit from an EF-4 (possible EF-5) tornado on Monday.

Here is a look at the overall outlook with West Central Ohio under a slight risk.

Today Outlook

We are seeing some sunshine in West Central Ohio early this afternoon and that will help to destabilize the atmosphere later on. CAPE values in the region will be in the 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg range later this afternoon and evening, that’s not impressively high but enough to probably initiate storms in the region. Here is a look at the forecasted radar by about 7 PM this evening.

hrrr

We will not however have much upper air support for storms in the region, I can see this by looking at the forecasted 500 mb level in the atmosphere. Like the past few days, a big upper level trough at the 500 mb level will be present over the center of the US, but the more active parts of that trough are forecasted to be North and South of us here in West Central Ohio.

Notice the higher wind speeds in the trough where the better chance for tornadoes is into the Southern US. The increased wind speed at this height in the atmosphere adds lift and much-needed wind shear to help create rotation in the atmosphere. Higher wind speeds will also be present over Southern Michigan as well but not to the extent in the South.

500 mb wind

Overall, we do have a chance to see a few strong to severe storms, but the better ingredients for a more widespread event are elsewhere for the day. I will be watching closely all afternoon and evening, please join me later this evening on Your Hometown Stations for the latest.

-Kyle

 

 

Severe Weather Potential With A More Active Weather Pattern

It’s been a quiet severe weather season for the most part up until now with several rounds of storms hitting parts of the Midwest over the past weekend. The system is slowly making its way towards the Great Lakes over the next few days and will give us the chance for dangerous weather through midweek. I’ll start out by focusing on later this evening and tonight with parts of Northwest Ohio under a slight risk for severe weather. Here is the National Weather Service’s current outlook for Monday.

Today Outlook

The highest risk for tornadic storms will continue to be in parts of Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas where there is better upper air support thanks to a trough in the jet stream.

today 300 mb

Increased wind speeds at the jet stream level help to add lift to the atmosphere, these winds are also moving from the West/Southwest while the winds at the surface are out of the South, this change in wind direction with height in the atmosphere is called wind shear. When you have good wind shear along with a lot of moisture and heat at the surface, you’re going to have good conditions for tornadoes once again in the Midwest.

Thankfully the wind shear here in West Central Ohio isn’t nearly as significant as it is in parts of the Midwest. But we do have close to 90 degree temperatures along with dew point values close to 70 degrees. Our CAPE values will be high late this afternoon thanks to a lot of sunshine. By about 6 or 7 PM this evening CAPE values over parts of Indiana will be close to 4 or 5 thousand J/Kg. That’s getting up there! Again, CAPE (also known as CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) is the atmosphere’s ability to produce rapidly developing storms.

Hrrr CAPE

A line of storms is expected to develop and move across parts of Central and Northern Indiana late this afternoon and evening. These storms will feed off that daytime energy, bringing with them the potential for damaging winds/hail/and the slight chance for an isolated tornado. By about 9 or 10 PM this evening two short-term models show that line moving into parts of NW Ohio. By this time the sun will have set and the storms should be weakening with the loss of daytime heating and CAPE. This is something I will be watching very closely late this evening.

Here is the predicted radar at about 10 PM from the HRRR model with storms mainly North of route 30.

hrrr 10 pm

Here is the RPM model at about the same time.

rpm 10 pm

As of now our best chance for a damaging wind/hail threat will be from about 9PM to Midnight. I’ll keep a close eye on it!

For Tuesday the severe threat will shift East and West Central Ohio will once again be under a slight risk for storms.

Tomorrow Outlook

Our chance for severe weather Tuesday will be HIGHLY dependent on how much sunshine we get. More sunshine will destabilize the atmosphere thus allowing for the potential for stronger storms. Tune in later this evening to Your Hometown Lima Stations later this evening for the latest updates!

-Kyle

 

May 15th Texas Tornadoes

Up until last night it had been a pretty quiet start to the severe weather season across the United States. With storm teams from the National Weather Service surveying the damage today, storm surveys show the area of Granbury, Texas was hardest hit by storms with reports of as many as 6 people dead and many more injured. Preliminary reports out of the region by NWS meteorologists are showing EF-4 tornado damage. The same strength as the storm to hit Van Wert in 2002.

A home completely taken off its foundation in Granbury. Courtesy NWS

Preliminary Damage

While watching the storms last night, our radar caught the very strong rotation within the storm that produced this deadly tornado. This radar image shows the tornado just as it passed East of Granbury. The red colors indicate winds moving away from the radar and the green colors indicate winds moving towards the radar site. Where the two bright red and green colors meet, that’s where you have the potential tornado.

Granbury

When strong rotation like this shows up on radar, it’s usually a very good bet that there is either a funnel cloud present or a tornado on the ground. Surprisingly, there have only been 3 actual reports of tornadoes from last nights storms. But the ones that did form appear to have been very strong.

Here is a look at the storm reports from spotters on May 15th.

May 15th storm reports

Here is a link to the National Weather Service’s preliminary report from the region.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=tornadoes051513

My thoughts and prayers go out to those communities in Texas hit by last nights storms.

-Kyle

 

 

 

Our May Warm Up Is Here!

Coming off of a CHILLY Mother’s Day weekend, our temperatures have SHOT right back up here in West Central Ohio with highs in the region reaching 80 degrees!  It was a big jump from yesterday with highs only in the 50’s on Monday …….

Temp Change

We’ll follow suit Tuesday with temps back into the low to mid 80’s before a cold front moves in out of the North. The warmest high we have had so far in 2013 was on April 9th with a high of 83, it looks like we’ll surpass that on Wednesday.

Back to the cold front…….. Most forecast models don’t develop much rain along the front as it passes through tomorrow afternoon, but I wouldn’t be surprised (thanks to forecasted highs in the mid 80’s) if we did end up seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening. Either way, most forecast models wait until the front passes well to our South before more organized showers and thunderstorms develop. Something to watch…

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

This front will stay nearly stationary through the weekend along the Ohio River. It’s far enough away to say with good confidence that rain chances will remain low, but there is still a low chance Thursday through Saturday for an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

A BETTER chance for rain looks to move in early next week on Monday and Tuesday as a trough begins to dig into the midwest. This helps to pull up Gulf moisture from the South along with add extra lift to the atmosphere that helps aid showers and thunderstorms.

300 mb

Enjoy the warmer weather!

-Kyle

Why We’re So Cold, And Why We’ll Warm Right Back Up!

After a chilly Mother’s Day we felt temperatures fall into the 30’s this morning making for a very chilly start to the week. Over this past weekend we had a pair of cold fronts move through the region (the first late Friday and the second Saturday evening). When temperatures fluctuate like this, all we need to do is look at the jet stream to see where all this is coming from! Here is a look at the jet stream showing a BIG trough over the East coast allowing for colder Canadian air to flood this part of the country!

300 mb monday

But this upper level trough will not stick around for very long! By Wednesday it will move well to our East allowing the active part of the jet stream to lift North. This means warmer temperatures out of the South will once again move in! We should be back close to 80 degrees!

300 mb wednesday

Looking more long term, it looks as if we could be in for an active weather period by late in the coming weekend and into next week. Another big trough in the jet stream will set up over the Midwest, this will allow continued warm and moist air to filter into the region setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms.

early next week trof

Here is a look at the 8 to 14 day outlook from the NWS…Confirming warmer temperatures and possible active weather.

TEMPS

610temp_new

PRECIPITATION

6 10 precip

We might be looking to make up for a pretty calm beginning of May by this time next week…It’s something I’ll be watching and keeping you updated on through out the week!

-Kyle

A Stormy End To The Week UPDATE!

As expected, showers and thunderstorms have set their sights on West Central Ohio for tonight.

DMA Satellite and Radar

There is still a risk for isolated strong storms for the next few hours across Indiana and parts of Illinois, but with the loss of daytime heating, the storms will lose their intensity overnight. About .25″ to .50″ of rain is expected.

Kyle Convective Outlook

Rain is expected to easily come to an end in the region by sunrise Friday morning, we’ll probably be dry up until about 11AM or noon. That’s when a second area of low pressure will move through along a cold front bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

As the front shifts through West Central Ohio the severe weather threat will shift to the East with it. This time keeping the threat for strong to severe storms mainly to the EAST of us.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

With the front being in our vicinity during the afternoon hours I’m not quite ready to completely ignore the potential for a strong to severe storm. But the overall threat is low here in West Central Ohio.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK

Either way, we are looking at some accumulating rainfall. Between the two rounds of rain, we’ll probably end of with around an inch of rain across the region by the time Friday night rolls around.

-Kyle

 

 

A Potentially Stormy End To The Week

It’s been a relatively quiet severe weather season thus far in West Central Ohio (knock on wood) but we will see our first severe threat of the month of May as we venture into Thursday night and Friday. By late Thursday evening a warm front will be lifting North across parts of Illinois Indiana and extreme NW Ohio. Bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Because of this the National Weather Service has the region along the warm front and close to an area of low pressure under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather.

Kyle Convective Outlook

You probably noticed that West Central Ohio isn’t under this slight risk area, but rather right on the Eastern edge. Because of this, any strong to severe storms we might have will likely come into Thursday night and Friday. The area under the slight risk is an area that will have much better CAPE during peak daytime heating.

(CAPE is the atmospheres ability to produce rapidly developing storms. Among other things, it takes into consideration both temperature and atmospheric moisture, both of which are higher in the daytime)

Late Thursday CAPE

Since the storm will be moving in into the overnight hours, lowered CAPE will likely mean less intense storms. Again, if we see ANY severe weather here in West Central Ohio, it won’t be until the Thursday night/Friday Morning timeframe. Overall the severe threat is low with isolated damaging wind and hail the biggest threats.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK

I’ll be watching!

-Kyle

P.S. For a breakdown of the different severe weather outlook risk categories and what they mean, please check out my latest Weather Lab Webisode! (Episode 17)  Let me know what you think!  http://www.hometownstations.com/category/234474/weather-lab

 

 

A Warm (And Dry) Start To May, Will It Last Into The Weekend?

All week I have been watching a nearly stationary cold front sitting over the midwest bringing on and off rain to the region. This system has also brought over a foot of snow to some parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota!

Regional Sat-Rad FRONTS

But thanks to a strong area of high pressure sitting over most of the East coast, any advancing rain has been unable to make it much further East than the Illinois/Indiana border. Even by Saturday, the high will still be in control and helping to keep an area of low pressure away from West Central Ohio.

Futurecast

An area of low pressure will develop over the midwest into the weekend and become cut off from the main flow (you might have heard me say this once or twice over the course of the week) We can see the cut off low REALLY well in the forecasted 500 millibar chart by this Saturday sitting to the Southwest of Ohio.

500 mb

In and around the low is where the best chance for rain will be through early next week as it slowly drifts towards the East. By Monday we can see that the low has moved very little, but is sitting to the South of the Buckeye state….

500 MB Monday

Where you find the low pressure system is where you’ll get your best chance for rain. Here is a look at the forecasted rainfall totals over the upcoming weekend. With NO accumulating rain expected in Ohio through Monday.

QPF Sat - Mon

Recent data like this have led me to continue to drop the rain chance through the weekend. It’s looking pretty good! Hopefully we can continue to dry out a bit from a very rainy April!

-Kyle