A Potentially Stormy End To The Week

It’s been a relatively quiet severe weather season thus far in West Central Ohio (knock on wood) but we will see our first severe threat of the month of May as we venture into Thursday night and Friday. By late Thursday evening a warm front will be lifting North across parts of Illinois Indiana and extreme NW Ohio. Bringing an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Because of this the National Weather Service has the region along the warm front and close to an area of low pressure under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather.

Kyle Convective Outlook

You probably noticed that West Central Ohio isn’t under this slight risk area, but rather right on the Eastern edge. Because of this, any strong to severe storms we might have will likely come into Thursday night and Friday. The area under the slight risk is an area that will have much better CAPE during peak daytime heating.

(CAPE is the atmospheres ability to produce rapidly developing storms. Among other things, it takes into consideration both temperature and atmospheric moisture, both of which are higher in the daytime)

Late Thursday CAPE

Since the storm will be moving in into the overnight hours, lowered CAPE will likely mean less intense storms. Again, if we see ANY severe weather here in West Central Ohio, it won’t be until the Thursday night/Friday Morning timeframe. Overall the severe threat is low with isolated damaging wind and hail the biggest threats.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK

I’ll be watching!

-Kyle

P.S. For a breakdown of the different severe weather outlook risk categories and what they mean, please check out my latest Weather Lab Webisode! (Episode 17)  Let me know what you think!  http://www.hometownstations.com/category/234474/weather-lab

 

 

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