It’s been a quiet severe weather season for the most part up until now with several rounds of storms hitting parts of the Midwest over the past weekend. The system is slowly making its way towards the Great Lakes over the next few days and will give us the chance for dangerous weather through midweek. I’ll start out by focusing on later this evening and tonight with parts of Northwest Ohio under a slight risk for severe weather. Here is the National Weather Service’s current outlook for Monday.
The highest risk for tornadic storms will continue to be in parts of Oklahoma, Missouri and Arkansas where there is better upper air support thanks to a trough in the jet stream.
Increased wind speeds at the jet stream level help to add lift to the atmosphere, these winds are also moving from the West/Southwest while the winds at the surface are out of the South, this change in wind direction with height in the atmosphere is called wind shear. When you have good wind shear along with a lot of moisture and heat at the surface, you’re going to have good conditions for tornadoes once again in the Midwest.
Thankfully the wind shear here in West Central Ohio isn’t nearly as significant as it is in parts of the Midwest. But we do have close to 90 degree temperatures along with dew point values close to 70 degrees. Our CAPE values will be high late this afternoon thanks to a lot of sunshine. By about 6 or 7 PM this evening CAPE values over parts of Indiana will be close to 4 or 5 thousand J/Kg. That’s getting up there! Again, CAPE (also known as CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) is the atmosphere’s ability to produce rapidly developing storms.
A line of storms is expected to develop and move across parts of Central and Northern Indiana late this afternoon and evening. These storms will feed off that daytime energy, bringing with them the potential for damaging winds/hail/and the slight chance for an isolated tornado. By about 9 or 10 PM this evening two short-term models show that line moving into parts of NW Ohio. By this time the sun will have set and the storms should be weakening with the loss of daytime heating and CAPE. This is something I will be watching very closely late this evening.
Here is the predicted radar at about 10 PM from the HRRR model with storms mainly North of route 30.
Here is the RPM model at about the same time.
As of now our best chance for a damaging wind/hail threat will be from about 9PM to Midnight. I’ll keep a close eye on it!
For Tuesday the severe threat will shift East and West Central Ohio will once again be under a slight risk for storms.
Our chance for severe weather Tuesday will be HIGHLY dependent on how much sunshine we get. More sunshine will destabilize the atmosphere thus allowing for the potential for stronger storms. Tune in later this evening to Your Hometown Lima Stations later this evening for the latest updates!