Tuesday, May 21st Severe Threat

West Central Ohio continues to face a low-end severe weather threat after a very warm, but calm day on Monday. Our biggest threats into the afternoon and evening hours will be for damaging wind and hail with a very low chance for an isolated tornado here into Ohio, Indiana and Southern Michigan. Here is a look at the National Weather Service’s tornado outlook for the remainder of today.

Today Tor

Notice from the map that the highest chance for tornadoes is well to the South of us. The area that bears most watching this afternoon has thankfully shifted South and East of the Oklahoma City area, more specifically the city of Moore that took a direct hit from an EF-4 (possible EF-5) tornado on Monday.

Here is a look at the overall outlook with West Central Ohio under a slight risk.

Today Outlook

We are seeing some sunshine in West Central Ohio early this afternoon and that will help to destabilize the atmosphere later on. CAPE values in the region will be in the 1,000 to 2,000 j/kg range later this afternoon and evening, that’s not impressively high but enough to probably initiate storms in the region. Here is a look at the forecasted radar by about 7 PM this evening.

hrrr

We will not however have much upper air support for storms in the region, I can see this by looking at the forecasted 500 mb level in the atmosphere. Like the past few days, a big upper level trough at the 500 mb level will be present over the center of the US, but the more active parts of that trough are forecasted to be North and South of us here in West Central Ohio.

Notice the higher wind speeds in the trough where the better chance for tornadoes is into the Southern US. The increased wind speed at this height in the atmosphere adds lift and much-needed wind shear to help create rotation in the atmosphere. Higher wind speeds will also be present over Southern Michigan as well but not to the extent in the South.

500 mb wind

Overall, we do have a chance to see a few strong to severe storms, but the better ingredients for a more widespread event are elsewhere for the day. I will be watching closely all afternoon and evening, please join me later this evening on Your Hometown Stations for the latest.

-Kyle

 

 

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