Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this afternoon and into the overnight hours with damaging wind being the biggest concern. Hail, heavy rain and even isolated tornadoes are possible as well. The NWS has West Central Ohio right on the Eastern edge of a “high risk” area for severe weather. High risk zones are reserved for very high confidence in severe weather and rarely issued. Again, we are not right in the middle of the high risk area, we are right on the edge of it with most of West Central Ohio in a moderate risk, a little bit of a silver lining…..
Late this afternoon and evening, thunderstorms will develop along a warm front draped across West Central Ohio. These storms will have to be watched as a few of them could become severe from about 6 PM to 10 PM. But the timeframe I am still most concerned with is late this evening into Thursday morning from about 11 PM to 2 AM. It’s during this time frame that an area of low pressure will move towards Northern Indiana and NW Ohio into a very primed environment for severe weather. Storms are expected to develop into Illinois and Northern Indiana then move towards us into Thursday morning. CAPE values of over 3,000 j/jk will be in place late this evening thanks to a very warm/moist air-mass in place. Here is a look at the CAPE values around 9 PM tonight.
With values like this in place any storms that form into Illinois and Indiana should have no problem sustaining themselves. The good news is that we should be able to see these storms coming from miles away as they develop a couple states over to our West and move towards us in the form of a severe squall line.
Another important ingredient in place will be upper level winds, strong winds are forecasted above the surface. These strong winds higher up in the atmosphere help to add needed lift to keep storms going into the overnight hours.
The RPM, a short term model that has been very consistent over the last 24 hours continues to show a severe squall line of storms moving through the region around the midnight hour.
As of now storms into Thursday morning are expected to form a squall line capable of destructive winds. Since the worst of the storms are expected to come into the overnight hours, PLEASE take the proper precautions now to make sure you’re prepared. It will be a busy day for sure!