It’s been pretty calm for about the last month here in West Central Ohio but a threat for severe weather will return tot he region for Wednesday. The National Weather Service has us under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather during the day Wednesday with the biggest concern being damaging winds.
The reason being is that a cold front is expected to move through late tomorrow afternoon and evening here into West Central Ohio. The timing of the front is favorable for severe weather but a couple of things earlier in the day could bring down our severe chance later in the day……
Short term models are showing a good chance for thunderstorms in between 8 AM and noon Wednesday. This would very much hinder the atmosphere’s ability to destabilize later in the day when the front moves through. Basically the more cloud cover there is, the less of a threat for severe weather there will be. Thunderstorms thrive on daytime heating, and a couple short-term models are showing rain and thunderstorms in the region early on in the day.
Our RPM model shows rain and cloud cover in the region around 8 AM. NOTE the front still well off to the West. It won’t move through until later in the day.
Another short-term model, the HRRR, shows rain and possible thunderstorms as well around 8 or 9 AM.
Wednesday morning could be a damp one, but it may end up saving us from stronger storms later…….
Any morning showers and thunderstorms we see will likely affect development later in the afternoon and evening. These storms in the morning will very likely stay below severe limits. If we don’t see rain in the morning and we have a good deal of sunshine our severe chance will be a little higher later in the day when the cold front moves through. Overall, the severe chance is low Wednesday. BUT it is definitely worth watching….As of now here is what I think the biggest threats are Wednesday.
Please tune in tonight at 10 and 11, along with tomorrow morning at 6 with Brian for all the latest!