Fall Severe Storms Possible This Weekend

Here we are into the month of October and we have kicked things off here in West Central Ohio and a VERY warm note! But these warm temperatures will be coming to an end over the weekend thanks to a strong cold front expected to move through Sunday/Sunday night.

The situation on Saturday will set up similar to what we experienced on Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon and evening hours. But the severe threat will hang off to the West of us with the cold front

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has a "Slight Risk" for severe weather to the West of us

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has a “Slight Risk” for severe weather to the West of us

This can be credited to a warm and moist air mass in place, typical of the Summer, not Fall. The chance for rain in the region will rise drastically into early Sunday morning and Sunday night.

As I mentioned earlier, a cold front will move in during the day on Sunday. This front is expected to pack quite a punch.

Here is the expected location of the front Sunday afternoon/evening

Here is the expected location of the front Sunday afternoon/evening

You have probably heard me talk about instability on here before and how daytime heat and moisture help to fuel thunderstorms. Well this situation will be a bit different! With the front expected to move through Sunday afternoon/evening, we won’t have a whole lot of daytime heating thanks to overcast skies and rain likely earlier in the day (temperatures will only top out around 70 degrees Sunday) But we will be dealing with a good amount of wind shear in the atmosphere, put in simpler terms, a change in wind SPEED or DIRECTION with height in the atmosphere. On Sunday while the winds here at the surface won’t be very strong, up high (about 40 thousand feet) at the jet stream level they will be roaring over 100 mph here in West Central Ohio!

The darker colors indicate higher winds at the jet stream level

The darker colors indicate higher winds at the jet stream level

Now, IF we do see any sunshine leading to warmer temperatures on Sunday, THAT plus some impressive wind shear could mean a very credible damaging wind threat here in West Central Ohio on Sunday. However, I don’t think we’ll see a whole lot of daytime heating and thus storms will rely on mainly strong wind shear for fuel.

The NWS has us under a Slight Risk for severe weather on Sunday for that exact reason. A damaging wind threat will be monitored here in West Central Ohio as the front nears on Sunday.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Perhaps a BIGGER concern will be for some potentially very heavy rain as the front moves in. Our short-term RPM model is showing the possibility for most locations to pick up over 2 inches of rain Sunday through early Monday. Of course this is only ONE forecast model, but it is definitely something to monitor.

Heavy rainfall amounts shown by the RPM model by MOnday early afternoon

Heavy rainfall amounts shown by the RPM model by Monday early afternoon

Be sure to watch NBC Lima over the weekend, Elise Dolinar will have all the latest on what wll likely be a stormy and wet weekend.

-Kyle

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