UPDATE On A Big Cool Down Next Week!

In my previous post (Tuesday) I talked about how temperatures would be cold enough by next Wednesday and Thursday for snow here in West Central Ohio. After watching forecast models into next week the trend is still toward a BIG cool down, cold enough for snow, but as of right now models have been trending toward drier weather as opposed to a few days ago when they were showing precipitation moving through.

Two days ago, here is what the GFS was showing by Wednesday afternoon and evening. The 540 line, or the rain/snow line as I discussed in my last post is well South of us. The model is also a big green blob (for lack of a better term) over Ohio suggesting that any precip falling could be snow.

GFS PRECIP

But as I mentioned before, forecast models CHANGE! Especially over a week out! Which is why it is VERY irresponsible for anyone claiming to be, or is a meteorologist to even begin to put an amount, snow or rain on a forecast that far out in time!

The trend over the past few days has continued to show a big cool down by mid-week next week but they have also showed a much drier forecast in store. Both the GFS and the ECMWF continue to show the rain/snow line well South of West Central Ohio by the Wed/Thu time frame. So, I’m increasingly confident that we will feel temperatures dropping into the mid 40’s with lows approaching the freezing mark. However, both models do not show much of any precipitation in the region during the time when temperatures will be cold enough to support snow.

The GFS shows VERY light precip over the Great Lakes on Wednesday. But not enough for me to mention light snow in my forecast!

The GFS shows VERY light precip over the Great Lakes on Wednesday. But not enough for me to mention light snow in my forecast!

The European model shows overall dry weather in the Greak Lakes on Wednesday. Both the Euro and GFS are trending towards dry weather.

The European model shows overall dry weather in the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Both the Euro and GFS are trending towards dry weather.

So for now, even though it will be COLD enough for snow, I’m keeping the forecast dry! Of course I’ll be watching for any changes over the next few days!

-Kyle

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