It’s still looking like a soggy and breezy Halloween here in West Central Ohio with on and off rain showers moving through all day long.
As far as SEVERE weather is concerned, we’ll have a relatively small timeframe for storms that could be on the strong side. That window will occur late in the evening in-between 8PM and 2AM Friday morning as the cold front moves through. Here is a look at where the front is expected to be around 10PM.
This is shaping up to be a classic, LOW instability/HIGH shear event. We’re not expecting much sunshine at all through the day Thursday, without a good deal of sun to warm things up thunderstorms lack a valuable fuel source to develop. But any storms that DO develop along the cold front into the overnight hours will be fueled by high shear, NOT instability from daytime heating. To see how strong the wind shear will be we only have to look to the Jet Stream level of the atmosphere for evidence. As the cold front moves through, winds 30 to 40 thousand feet up in the air will be howling easily over 100 miles per hour!
Intense winds like this as you go up higher into the sky help to create lift at the surface. This lift helps to sustain storms that form, it also can create a situation where damaging winds are a possibility at the surface.
Along with the damaging wind threat, there is also a LOW chance for isolated tornadoes along this cold front due to the high amounts of wind shear.
AGAIN, the overall threat tomorrow night is pretty low with damaging winds being by biggest concern in-between 8PM and 2 AM Friday morning. I’ll be paying close attention throughout the day to all the latest conditions and keep you updated!
ALSO, here is a current list of cities and villages that have moved their Trick or Treat to Saturday:
Wapakoneta 12 to 1:30 PM
Pandora 6 to 7 PM
Bluffton 6 to 7 PM
St Marys 12 to 2 PM
New Bremen 12 to 130 PM
New Knoxville 12 to 130 PM
Beaverdam 6 to 730 PM
Cridersville 3 to 430 PM
Dunkirk 1 to 3 PM