Sunday Severe Weather Threat

You may be thinking, what?! But didn’t we already have our first snow of the season? Unfortunately we can, and do get severe weather here in West Central Ohio this late in the Fall season. This is exactly the case on Sunday with a strong cold front taking aim at the region.

Strong, moist southerly flow interacting with strong upper level winds along a cold front are the reason for our severe weather chance.

Strong, moist southerly flow interacting with strong upper level winds along a cold front are the reason for our severe weather chance.

As is typically the case into the Fall months, events like this one are usually HIGH shear, LOW instability situations. High shear basically means that there is strong winds just above the surface all the way up to the jet stream helping to increase upward motion in the atmosphere. This is also something that instability does, but in this case thanks to temperatures only in the mid to upper 60’s, there won’t be a lot of that.

As the cold front approaches early Sunday afternoon, a strong South wind will continue to pull up moisture (higher dew point values) into Indiana and Ohio. The higher the dew point temperature= the better chance for severe weather. In situations like this if dew point temperatures can approach 60 degrees, that usually means there will be enough fuel to get low topped, surface based storms to interact with the strong winds above. The GFS model has dew-points into the mid 50’s, while the NAM has dew-points into the low 60’s. The NAM would be more of a worry with higher moisture.

The NAM pulls more moisture into Ohio with dew point temperatures into the low 60's.

The NAM pulls more moisture into Ohio with dew point temperatures into the low 60’s.

Of course the storm is still 2 days out and this situation could still change. As of now, this spells out a legitimate wind threat here in West Central Ohio early Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. With wind shear very high too, isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out either.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

Be sure to get all the latest both later tonight with me and into the weekend with Elise Dolinar as this is a developing situation.

-Kyle

 

 

 

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Hurricane, Typhoon and Cyclone. They are all the same thing!

As we continue to see the horrific images coming in from the Philippines from Typhoon Haiyan, the question has been brought up, how is a Typhoon different from a Hurricane? The answer is, nothing is different except the name!

Different parts of the world have different names for tropical systems. For instance, the Northwest Pacific Ocean where Haiyan formed is where these storms are called “typhoons”. Structurally, they are the exact same as what we call “Hurricanes” here. It’s in this part of the world that w see the highest frequency of storms thanks to an almost year round supply of ocean water of at least 80 degrees. This is a key ingredient in tropical system formation.

TYPHOON ORIGIN

Storms that develop into the Indian ocean are called “Cyclones” Storms that develop in this region can form both North and South of the equator. Another key ingredient in tropical system formation is that the majority of develop at a distance of about 300 miles NORTH or SOUTH of the equator. Cyclones that develop South of the equator spin CLOCKWISE. Storms that form North of it spin COUNTER-CLOCKWISE. Areas of low and high pressure spin opposite in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

CYCLONE ORIGIN

And of course, closer to home, we call them “Hurricanes”.

HURRICANE ORIGIN

-Kyle

Winter Is Near, We Must Fight Weather Hype!

I’m writing this blog post in order to fill everyone in on a little secret, there is a TON of hype out there when it comes to weather forecasts. And thanks to social media, it’s only getting worse!

For example, exactly one week from now the GFS 7 AM model from today is showing 6 INCHES of snow on the ground for parts of West Central Ohio…

Next Wednesday Snow

It’s only a matter of time before I see people on various social media outlets posting to their page claiming that this will no doubt come to fruition. Let me be clear, claims like this 7 DAYS OUT make me want to grab my computer and chuck it out the window!

I’ll be honest with you, is there a chance this could actually happen? Sure! Just like there is a chance I’ll still have the opportunity to play basketball in the NBA. (well maybe the NBA thing is a much smaller chance, but you see my point?)

Show me a meteorologist that can pinpoint an area and amount of snow fall with high confidence 7 days out, and I’ll show you one of the BEST meteorologists that ever lived. It can’t be done! Forecast models change over time, and they certainly will over the next seven days leading up to next Wednesday. Could we see snow then, absolutely! Can I say that with high confidence right now, NO! Which is why you won’t hear me saying anything about it on air at this point.

Going back to my earlier comment about social media, it isn’t always negative when it comes to stuff like this! There are MANY great meteorologists out there that do an excellent job of handling situations like this. No hype, just facts! It’s my hope that people who read it posts like this on Facebook or Twitter will take the time to read the entire post. If you only take away one thing from this post, I hope it’s this. Headlines can be deceiving, they are designed to get your attention, please never stop at the headline! Click on that link in the FB or Twitter post that directs you to the meat and potatoes of the story whether it be a website or a blog post like this one!

Also, don’t be afraid to question who your weather updates are coming from. As I said earlier, there are a lot of people out there who will post anything for likes and shares!

With all this in mind, I hope to continue writing in-depth blog posts on this site in an effort to help people better understand the weather! If we’re looking at a big snow you can be sure to find an update about it here. It just won’t be 7 days out! 🙂

-Kyle