You may be thinking, what?! But didn’t we already have our first snow of the season? Unfortunately we can, and do get severe weather here in West Central Ohio this late in the Fall season. This is exactly the case on Sunday with a strong cold front taking aim at the region.
As is typically the case into the Fall months, events like this one are usually HIGH shear, LOW instability situations. High shear basically means that there is strong winds just above the surface all the way up to the jet stream helping to increase upward motion in the atmosphere. This is also something that instability does, but in this case thanks to temperatures only in the mid to upper 60’s, there won’t be a lot of that.
As the cold front approaches early Sunday afternoon, a strong South wind will continue to pull up moisture (higher dew point values) into Indiana and Ohio. The higher the dew point temperature= the better chance for severe weather. In situations like this if dew point temperatures can approach 60 degrees, that usually means there will be enough fuel to get low topped, surface based storms to interact with the strong winds above. The GFS model has dew-points into the mid 50’s, while the NAM has dew-points into the low 60’s. The NAM would be more of a worry with higher moisture.
Of course the storm is still 2 days out and this situation could still change. As of now, this spells out a legitimate wind threat here in West Central Ohio early Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. With wind shear very high too, isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out either.
Be sure to get all the latest both later tonight with me and into the weekend with Elise Dolinar as this is a developing situation.