Snow And Cold For 2014!

Happy New Year’s Eve everyone! We woke up to about a half-inch of snow on the ground here in Lima this morning, but most of the day so far has been sunny and VERY chilly! Over the next 24 to 36 hours, two more rounds of snow are expected here in West Central Ohio. The first round of snow will move in tonight with snow developing along a warm front just to our South here in West Central Ohio. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Northern Half of the viewing area in anticipation of the snow.

CWA Watch

This snow will mostly stay focused NORTH of Route 30 as it moves in from the West by Midnight. Here is a look at Futurecast by 3 AM Wednesday morning. So if you’re headed out this New Year’s Eve, especially North of Route 30, please watch for slippery roads in the region.

WED 3 AM

During the day on Wednesday the story will be similar, I DON’T expect much snow to fall South of Route 30. As you can see, by early Wednesday evening, the snow is still focused North of Lima and Route 30.

WED 6 PM

For round ONE of the snow, this is what I expect to fall tonight through Wednesday evening. It’s not going to be very much, if any at all!

Kyle Snow Totals

For most of us in West Central Ohio, our accumulating snow will not arrive until late Wednesday into Wednesday night. An area of low pressure will move in out of the West and track just to our South during this timeframe. The low will pull in some very cold air out of the North and begin to overspread snow into the region. Futurecast shows this picture shortly after midnight early Thursday morning.

THU 3 AM

The heaviest snow in the viewing area will fall Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday. By 10 AM Thursday morning here is a look at Futurecast.

THU 10 AM

For round two of the snow, this is what I expect Wednesday night through Thursday.

Kyle Snow Totals 2

Once the snow comes to an end by Thursday afternoon, we’ll be left with some bone chilling temperatures into the single digits Thursday night! Friday’s highs will only top out around 15 or 16 degrees as well. So please, travel safe this New Year Holiday! Happy New Year everyone, I hope everyone has a GREAT 2014!

-Kyle

You Can follow me on Twitter here  KyleAdamsWX

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A New Year Brings A New Chance For Snow!

What a cool down we have felt here in West Central Ohio over the past couple of days! I didn’t even have to wear a jacket on Saturday, now it’s back to Winter for us, and while we likely won’t see much accumulating snow for the remainder of 2013, the beginning of 2014 could be a different story.

Light snow is possible tonight into Tuesday, but it looks like anything (if any at all) accumulates, it will be less than 1/2″ of snow. The first chance for snow into 2014 will arrive shortly AFTER midnight tomorrow into Wednesday morning, just in time for the new year. Areas North of Route 30 will likely pick up some light snow, with heavier amounts out of our viewing area, closer to the Michigan Ohio border.

Models Point toward accumulating snow generally North of Route 30

Models point toward accumulating snow generally North of Route 30 around the time the ball drops!

8 hours later, by daybreak Wednesday morning, light snow is still possible.

Wed 8 AM

Most ALL forecast models keep the higher snowfall amounts focused along the OH/MI border. While we could certainly see an inch or two here in Lima Tuesday night, the heaviest amounts look as if they will stay mainly North of West Central Ohio.

Predicted snow totals from our first round of snow that will move through shortly after the beginning of 2014

Predicted snow totals from our first round of snow that will move through shortly after the beginning of 2014

So far I have taken us through Wednesday evening, it’s after this when I think we’ll have our best chance for a more widespread snow! By late Wednesday evening an area of low pressure will begin to develop and move in out of the West. This low will be pulling on some Arctic air out of the North along with trying to grab some Southern moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico. THE BIG QUESTION, is how much moisture will this low be able to get ahold of…..Here is a look at the placement of the low late Wednesday evening, the low in Southern Illinois will be trying to steal some energy from the low moving out of the Gulf of Mexico. If it can tap into this moisture we could be looking at several inches of snow by the end of the day Thursday.

Can this low moving through the Great Lakes tap into deeper moisture out of the South? That is still to be seen....

Can this low moving through the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday tap into deeper moisture out of the South? That is still to be seen….

Forecast models are NOT in a lot of agreement on how these to systems will interact. We will very likely see snow Wednesday night into Thursday, but how much? It’s still too early for me to confidently say. Forecast models are VERY divided on this one still, so please, don’t buy into what others are saying as far as snowfall amounts are concerned! It’s nothing but hype. Just know that the potential for several inches of snow IS a possibility and by this time tomorrow, I’ll very likely have a much better picture as far as what potential snowfall totals could be for Wednesday night and Thursday. Please stay tuned! I’ll be sure to keep you updated.

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

No Snowstorm This Weekend, Just Rain, Potentially LOTS Of Rain!

Earlier this week rumors were swirling around the internet of a possible EPIC snowstorm affecting parts of Ohio into this upcoming weekend. Again, I can’t be more clear, any posts you were seeing about this were based on VERY LITTLE facts but simply there to build hype and gain popularity through social media, bottom line. These posts were based on ONE forecast model almost a WEEK ahead of time! Now that things have played out a bit more, there has been a trend from forecast models over the past few days showing much warmer air filtering in to West Central Ohio. This means RAIN not snow for the upcoming weekend, some of it could be potentially heavy.

Two major forecast models, the European and the GFS models have been CONSISTENTLY showing some potentially HEAVY rain over the region now for the past couple of days, this has given me confidence to write this post! Basically what will happen is that a cold front will be slow to approach the region on Friday into Saturday. This front will be the dividing line of some pretty warm/moist air and some much colder Canadian air to the North.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

As of now it looks as if West Central Ohio will be on the WARM side of this front through the weekend. A couple of low pressure systems will develop out of the South and move Northeast up and along this front on Saturday and Sunday with the majority of the energy affecting us Saturday night and Sunday. I expect lighter rain to fall Friday and most of the day Saturday. The European model  shows a swath of VERY heavy rainfall moving into the region Saturday night. ITS IMPORTANT to note where the RAIN/SNOW line is on these next few graphics. It’s the dashed blue line, basically this is shows anything SOUTH of this line will be rain and anything NORTH will be a potential wintry mix or just all snow. You can see we are well South of this line, that means rain for us.

ECMWF Rain

The GFS model paints a similar picture, agreement in weather models and consistency only adds to confidence in a forecast. The RAIN/SNOW line is still well North of the region and this particular model has a swath of heavy rain Saturday night (possibly 1-2 inches) moving through.

GFS Rain

With the possibility of several inches of rain (the heaviest coming Saturday night and Sunday morning) AND the snow that will melt in the region thanks to the rain and warmer temperatures, we could be looking at a flood threat in the region by Sunday evening. This is something that will be watched VERY closely as we near the end of the week. Sadly, this does not paint a very good picture for a white Christmas 😦 I’ll be sure to keep you updated as we near the weekend!

-Kyle

Winter Storm Expected Tonight And Saturday

Winter storm warnings have been issued for much of West Central Ohio that will go into effect overnight tonight and lat through Saturday evening.

CWA Watch

This storm is currently off to our South and West and is developing thanks to an area of low pressure that is pulling up a good deal of moisture out of the South. This moisture will interact with a cold front drapped across the region tonight and tomorrow.

Radar Fri Afternoon

Expect snow to begin moving into West Central Ohio by about 10 or 11 PM this evening as all this moisture continues its way Northeast with steady snow expected in the region to start the day on Saturday.

Sat Morning

Steady snow will continue to fall into Saturday afternoon with the rain/snow line expected to remain well to our South. It’s looking like all snow with this storm and no mix expected.

Sat Afternoon

Tonight through Saturday evening is the time when we’ll see the snow accumulate through West Central Ohio. Here is a look at what I’m thinking as far as accumulations are concerned.

Kyle Snow Totals

The 5 to 8 inch swath of snowfall may need to be adjusted a little bit further South as the night progresses, but for now it looks as if it will remain just North of Lima. I’ll be watching all the latest computer model forecasts all evening long and be sure to keep you updated throughout the evening and on Your News Now at 10 and 11! Stay safe!

-Kyle

Very Cold Weather And Snow This Weekend!

We had the coldest weather we have seen in over a year here overnight last night with a low of 4 degrees here in Lima, and technically, we don’t begin the Winter season until December 21st! Our coldest low last Winter was on January 22nd at 5 degrees. Along with the recent chilly weather, we have seen snow in the region as well with the potential for our biggest snow yet as we head into the upcoming weekend.

All week-long, forecast models have been pretty consistent in showing the potential for several inches of snow beginning late Friday and lasting through the beginning of the weekend on Saturday. Our Futurecast model shows light snow beginning to move in by 10 or 11 PM Friday evening….

Fri Night Snow

The snow will fall thanks to an area of low pressure drawing up some moisture from the Gulf that will interact with very cold air and a cold front moving in out of the North.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Light to moderate snow is expected to continue into Saturday with accumulations ranging into the 3-5 inch range by late Saturday evening.

Most models, including this one (RPM) have been showing 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulating late Friday night through Saturday evening.

Most models, including this one (RPM) have been showing 3 to 5 inches of snow accumulating late Friday night through Saturday evening.

As of now, I feel pretty comfortable saying that we’ll see 3 to 5 inches of fresh snow on the ground by the end of Saturday. But as is the case with almost all Winter Storms, a slight change in the track could cause this range to jump an inch or two up or down in the next 24 hours. Stay tuned! I will keep watching the trends in the models over the next 24 hours and will keep you updated as the storm develops! Join me tonight at 10 and 11 with all the latest on Your Hometown Stations!

-Kyle

Updated Snowfall Forecast For West Central Ohio!

After studying all of the latest forecast models today, it is clear that the anticipated Winter Storm has shifted its track further North. What does that mean for us? More snow! Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued this afternoon by the National Weather Service in anticipation…..

Winter Weather Advisories

This storm will come in TWO waves. The first will move through late tonight/early Friday morning with a mix mainly of sleet and snow which will accumulate in the region.

Late Thursday Snow

We’ll get a BRIEF break from the winter weather early Friday morning before another round of snow moves in late morning into the afternoon hours.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Because of the track further North, I have bumped up snow totals for all of us here in West Central Ohio. It appears that the Lima area will be right in a transition zone between a 2 to 4 inch swath of snow and a 3 to 5 inch swath of snow.

Kyle Snow Totals

If you have been keeping up on my posts, you can see how Winter weather can change very quickly! It’s always a challenge, especially here in Ohio! Be sure to catch all the latest tonight on Your News Now at 5 and 6!

-Kyle

BIG Cool Down Coming (And Some Snow Too!)

Did everyone enjoy temperatures today close to 60 degrees? I sure did! But I’m not getting used to them, we are in for quite the cool down beginning Thursday. As a cold front moves through the region temperatures will be falling through the day on Thursday with readings in the upper 30’s by the evening. As the front moves through light rain will switch to sleet and snow shortly after nightfall. We can see the wintry mix on Futurecast as we head into the late evening hours Thursday.

Late Thursday Snow

It looks as if the precipitation that falls Thursday evening and Thursday night will be primarily sleet and snow. It’s during this timeframe, when the first wave of precipitation moves through that I think we’ll see the majority of our accumulating snow and sleet. We’re not going to have to worry about freezing rain for this storm.

Kyle Snow Totals

The second wave of snow will come during the day on Friday, but the latest computer models have this snow staying mostly to the South of West Central Ohio. Here is a look at our Futurecast early Friday afternoon, notice the snow is mainly to the South of us. Areas like Dayton, Columbus and Cincinnati will pick up the majority of their snow during this time.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Now that it looks as if the majority of the snow will stay to our South on Friday that I have backed off on my snowfall totals forecast. Of course, this could still change, so you know I’ll be paying close attention tomorrow! And oh yea, get ready for some CHILLY temperatures to follow into the weekend! Stay tuned!

-Kyle

An Early December Warm Up!

We had a CHILLY end to the month of November that had many (including myself) wondering if this was truly the end of any more warm weather here in West Central Ohio! As a matter of fact, we hit 66 degrees here in Lima on November 17th and ever since temperatures have been 50 degrees or below! But with highs near 50 degrees today, the temperature trend so far this week has been going up with the forecast for Wednesday looking even warmer!

A look at WARMER temps around 4 PM Wednesday!

A look at WARMER temps around 4 PM Wednesday!

60 degrees is definitely in reach on Wednesday, but we will quickly be reminded of the fact that it is December in Ohio and colder temperatures are almost inevitable this time of year. If we look at the national temperature map we can see the pocket of arctic air beginning to build into the Pacific Northwest. It’s only a matter of time before that air mass get here…

Colder air mass waiting in the wings.....

Colder air mass waiting in the wings…..

And with this colder air, you guessed it, will come the possibility of accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday. As of now I think forecast models may be coming in a little too aggressive on snowfall amounts with the NAM model showing a swath of 6 to 8 inches of snow into Central Ohio and Indiana Thursday night and Friday.

NAM SNOW

Again this model is too aggressive in my opinion. Even the GFS model seems a little high for the region, but it does keep the higher snow amounts South which is more what I’m forecasting for Thursday night and Friday.

GFS SNOW

AS OF NOW, i’m thinking West Central Ohio is in line for more 2 to 4 inches of snow thursday night into Friday. This is still a bit early, but I think the above computer models will drop in the coming days. Stay tuned!

-Kyle