No Snowstorm This Weekend, Just Rain, Potentially LOTS Of Rain!

Earlier this week rumors were swirling around the internet of a possible EPIC snowstorm affecting parts of Ohio into this upcoming weekend. Again, I can’t be more clear, any posts you were seeing about this were based on VERY LITTLE facts but simply there to build hype and gain popularity through social media, bottom line. These posts were based on ONE forecast model almost a WEEK ahead of time! Now that things have played out a bit more, there has been a trend from forecast models over the past few days showing much warmer air filtering in to West Central Ohio. This means RAIN not snow for the upcoming weekend, some of it could be potentially heavy.

Two major forecast models, the European and the GFS models have been CONSISTENTLY showing some potentially HEAVY rain over the region now for the past couple of days, this has given me confidence to write this post! Basically what will happen is that a cold front will be slow to approach the region on Friday into Saturday. This front will be the dividing line of some pretty warm/moist air and some much colder Canadian air to the North.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

As of now it looks as if West Central Ohio will be on the WARM side of this front through the weekend. A couple of low pressure systems will develop out of the South and move Northeast up and along this front on Saturday and Sunday with the majority of the energy affecting us Saturday night and Sunday. I expect lighter rain to fall Friday and most of the day Saturday. The European model  shows a swath of VERY heavy rainfall moving into the region Saturday night. ITS IMPORTANT to note where the RAIN/SNOW line is on these next few graphics. It’s the dashed blue line, basically this is shows anything SOUTH of this line will be rain and anything NORTH will be a potential wintry mix or just all snow. You can see we are well South of this line, that means rain for us.

ECMWF Rain

The GFS model paints a similar picture, agreement in weather models and consistency only adds to confidence in a forecast. The RAIN/SNOW line is still well North of the region and this particular model has a swath of heavy rain Saturday night (possibly 1-2 inches) moving through.

GFS Rain

With the possibility of several inches of rain (the heaviest coming Saturday night and Sunday morning) AND the snow that will melt in the region thanks to the rain and warmer temperatures, we could be looking at a flood threat in the region by Sunday evening. This is something that will be watched VERY closely as we near the end of the week. Sadly, this does not paint a very good picture for a white Christmas 😦 I’ll be sure to keep you updated as we near the weekend!

-Kyle

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