The Winter That Just Won’t Go Away!

Did you enjoy the near 60 degree weather today? Well, enjoy them while you can because colder weather and SNOW is expected later this week!

We’ll see an area of low pressure move just to the south of West Central Ohio late Tuesday into Wednesday that will at first bring some rain that will switch over to snow by the day on Wednesday. Because of this anticipated winter weather, The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches for the northern half of the viewing area beginning Wednesday morning.

CWA Watch

You may be asking yourself, why is the watch only for the northern half of the viewing area? We’ll, thanks to temperatures near 60 degrees leading up to Wednesday, there will be a very mild air mass in place that colder air will have to fight through to get to West Central Ohio. Here is a look at the projected warm temperatures in place over the Buckeye State early Wednesday morning. Notice the sharp temperature difference!

Future Temperatures

At first, as the low moves in we will see rain thanks to the warmer temperatures in place. Here is a look at what our Futurecast projects early Wednesday morning around 2 AM.

Future 1

As colder air eventually gets pulled South by this system we will begin to see a transition to snow across northern parts of the viewing area by sunrise Wednesday. Future 2

NOTICE, in our northern counties where the rain will switch over to snow more quickly is where we will see higher snow totals on Wednesday.

By early afternoon Wednesday, most of our counties will be seeing snow.

Future 3

So, how much snow can we expect during the day on Wednesday? With the VERY mild temperatures in place before the storm hits I do think the snow, at first, will have a hard time sticking to the ground Wednesday. Computer models over the last couple of days have been trending this storm further and further north allowing for more rain to fall instead of snow. While computer models are in better agreement today than they were a couple of days ago, we still could see shifts in the track of this system. Here is a look at where some of them stand as of Monday afternoon as far as potential snowfall totals are concerned.

The GFS model shown here.

GFS Future Snow

The European model shown here.

EURO Future Snow

Notice, the GFS and EURO are in pretty good agreement. But I can’t just take into consideration these two. Here is a look at the NAM and the RPM model. Both of which are more short-term models.

The NAM potential snow shown here.

NAM Future Snow

And the RPM shown here.

RPM Future Snow

Both the NAM and RPM are hinting at more rain thanks to warmer temperatures being pulled in. This is definitely something I will watch closely up through Wednesday. As of now, I’m splitting the difference of the four models shown above. Here is a PRELIMINARY look at potential snow totals on Wednesday.

Kyle Snow Totals

With this storm still two days out, these numbers could still be adjusted a bit. I’ll be sure to keep a close eye on it! The good news is that temperatures will jump right back to near 50 degrees by Friday, so any snow that falls won’t be around for long!

-Kyle

For more updates you can follow me on twitter here  https://twitter.com/KyleAdamsWX

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