Let me start off by saying that I do believe that while we do have a chance for severe weather here in West Central Ohio Late Thursday And Friday, our overall threat is still on the low side at this point.
With that said here is how it will unfold and why timing will play a BIG factor.
Here is a look at the frontal positions Thursday evening. The area I have circled is where the best chance for severe weather will be during the day.
Here is the SPC risk outlook for Thursday
As you can see, the moderate risk area is FAR removed from West Central Ohio. It’s in this region where the best chance for a tornado outbreak will be on Thursday.
The timeframe for our best chance for severe weather here in West Central Ohio won’t arrive until closer to midnight and after Friday morning.
It’s around this time when the energy from the moderate risk area earlier in the day will reach Ohio. As the storms travel through Illinois and Indiana into the overnight hours they will likely lose some steam. Here is what Futurecast is showing in the midnight to 3 AM time frame when the storms will POTENTIALLY arrive.
These storms will be riding along a frontal boundary and will have the potential to produce damaging wind and hail. As of now it appears there is very little threat for the development of an isolated tornado, but honestly, that can NEVER be ruled out in these situations.
Toward daybreak on Friday the cold front will still loom off to our West…..
This is where timing will REALLY come into play depending on how quickly the front can make it through West Central Ohio. This front has been showing signs of slowing down in the past couple of model runs, here is why that is important to watch. Here are two scenarios.
If the front can pass through during the late morning/early afternoon hours Friday. This would mean much less of a chance for severe weather. This area of low pressure will be pulling up a good deal of moisture and warmth out ahead of it Friday morning. If the front passes through earlier in the day, it won’t be able to tap into that energy here in West Central Ohio.
If the front passes through during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Then we’ll have a much better chance for a damaging wind/hail threat on Friday. Dew points on Friday will likely reach well into the 50’s before this front moves through.
If the front can tap into that moisture AND peak daytime heating with temps in the mid to upper 60’s then we’ll likely deal with a squall line of isolated severe thunderstorms in the 12PM to 4PM timeframe on Friday.
It’s all about the timing of the cold front on Friday! I’ll be watching very closely in the coming days!