So far it has been a quiet severe weather season not only here in West Central Ohio, but across the entire country. As a matter of fact, based on National Weather Service data, so far this is the quietest season in over 60 years. Read more about that here
The activity is about to ramp up however with a strong frontal system expected to move through the midwest this upcoming weekend. For us here in West Central Ohio, we have an overall nice and calm weekend to look forward to. But later next week things could get a little interesting.
Based on Friday’s data, here is how things look to play out into next week.
An area of low pressure will develop over the plains this weekend and progress VERY slowly across the United States. (for more on why, read here) This system will likely be responsible for a severe weather outbreak both Saturday and Sunday that will stay well West of us here in Ohio.
This system will slowly move east on Monday very likely bringing West Central Ohio rain. Here is an idea of where the rain will be early Monday morning along with the position of the low.
Here is the official Monday and Tuesday severe weather outlook from the National Weather Service.
As you can see, the threat for severe weather will shift East but should stay out of West Central Ohio on Monday for a few good reasons.
1) Not enough moisture will make it this far north to fuel potential storms
I like to see 55 to 60 degree + dew points as a big ingredient in fueling potential severe weather. As you can see from the above map, those stay well south of us
2) Upper level wind support will not lend a hand
There will be strong upper level winds over parts of the midwest that I have highlighted, and it’s there on Monday where the best chance for severe weather will be. But even stronger upper level winds linger off to the west on Monday. (more on that in a second)
Because of the above reasons it makes sense that the area shaded in red could be in line for severe weather on Monday. I don’t think we have anything to worry about here.
Tuesday could be a different story. As you can see in the map above, the SPC has Southwest Ohio highlighted for potential severe weather in purple. There are a few reasons why I think this threat area may be moved a little further north and into West Central Ohio for Tuesday.
1) There are signs that 60+ degree dew points could make it this far north on Tuesday
If this happens we’ll have a big piece of the puzzle in place for possible severe weather. Over the last 24 hours, forecast models have been slowing the progress of this low pressure system and positioning it further to the northwest of Ohio. If this continues to be the case it should have no problem pulling up the moisture needed to fuel storms. Something I’ll be watching for sure.
2) Strong upper level winds in the region
In the picture above, the area I have circled was the piece of energy over the Western United States in the upper level map I showed for Monday. If this energy can make it into Ohio on Tuesday and interact with the moisture in place, I think we’ll be looking at a credible severe weather threat.
So what do I think?
I think this is definitely something to keep an eye on but by NO MEANS worry much about as of now. This is still about 4 to 5 days away and could change. A lot of this will also depend on the TIME that these ingredients potentially interact with one and other. IF all the above ingredients come together at night then that would drastically lower any severe weather chance. If they came together during the day with some help from a little bit of sunshine then things could get interesting. It’s still a bit too early to say for sure. You know I’ll be watching closely!