A quiet severe weather season has come to life over the past few days with several violent tornadoes across parts of the southern United States. On Monday the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center issued a RARE high risk area over parts of Mississippi and Alabama (and for good reason!)
The main threat for any severe weather will very likely stay well south and west of West Central Ohio tonight, but the set up for our Tuesday holds a little more promise for any potential storms.
Like Monday, the biggest threat for severe storms including tornadoes will remain well to our south. But that doesn’t mean we should let our guard down here in West Central Ohio.
On Tuesday we’ll see more sunshine here in West Central Ohio that will ultimately lead to MUCH warmer temperatures. A warm front will lift through the region during the morning hours on Tuesday bringing some rain and maybe some thunder before noon. But once the warm front lifts to our North we’ll see some clearing allowing daytime temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70’s!
With the favorable daytime heating, dew-points (moisture) are also expected to be on the rise. By tomorrow afternoon we should see readings in the mid to upper 50’s, this isn’t overly impressive but it should provide enough fuel for potential late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.
There is no question that the better moisture tomorrow will be well to the South of Ohio where a larger chance for severe weather looms. There is still some question to if this moisture will be able to make it this far north, that will play a large role in the severity of thunderstorms.
Upper level wind support for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon is decent, but like the moisture, the best conditions for severe weather will be over the south.
If we weren’t expected to clear out tomorrow afternoon with temps rising into the 70’s I wouldn’t really be worried at all. But since there will be some destabilization of the atmosphere thanks to some sunshine and warmth, tomorrow will require a close watch.
Here is how I see our overall threat for severe weather in West Central Ohio. Keep in mind this is mainly for the late afternoon through evening timeframe. Roughly 4 PM to Midnight Tuesday.
So what do I think?
Again, this severe set up is on the low-end, my biggest concern would be some isolated damaging winds. An isolated weak tornado can’t be ruled out, but there is no question that the best tornado ingredients will be in place well south of us. Keep an eye to the sky, especially late tomorrow afternoon and evening! I’ll be sure to keep you updated.