A cold front will move into West Central Ohio on Friday bringing an end to our recent 80 degree weather here in the region. We can say goodbye to our sunshine for Friday early on in the day with the approach of this front.
The fact that these clouds will be in the region is important because that will greatly reduce our chance for strong to severe thunderstorms during the day. Because of this anticipated cloud cover, our CAPE vales (convective available potential energy) will remain very low. CAPE is the atmospheres ability to produce rapidly developing thunderstorms. The higher the CAPE values, the more potential the atmosphere has to produce severe weather.
It’s no surprise by looking at the National Weather Services severe weather outlook that the best chance for severe storms is where the CAPE is.
By the afternoon our Futurecast confirms scattered thunderstorms in the region, but they will likely be below severe limits with just some gusty winds to 50 mph possible.
Another reason the chance for severe weather here in West Central Ohio is low tomorrow is due to the fact that the strongest upper level winds will hang well off to our west as well during the day. Stronger winds a couple of miles above the surface create wind shear, this shear helps any potential thunderstorms develop and maintain themselves, especially when you couple shear with some higher CAPE values.
So what do I think:
While we may see some Isolated damaging wind from thunderstorms on Friday, our severe weather threat here in West Central Ohio is very low. Bottom line is I just don’t see this being much of a concern on Friday.