Our Severe Weather Threat Wednesday/Wednesday Night

Posted 5/13/2014

We had some strong winds in the region today with a few severe thunderstorm warnings here in West Central Ohio, but I’m afraid we’re not out of the woods just yet as far as severe weather is concerned.

To start things off, part of the viewing area is under a “Slight Risk” for severe weather per the SPC outlook for Wednesday.

West Central Ohio is on the northern edge of a Slght Risk

West Central Ohio is on the northern edge of a slight Risk

This is for good reason, some pretty good ingredients will come together over parts of Central and Southern Ohio on Wednesday that may eventually upgrade this outlook to a higher threat level. Over the past couple of days you may have heard me talk about the fact that we could have all the warmth, moisture and instability in place in the world, but if we have nothing to trigger the storms (front, low pressure, trough ect…) nothing will ever come of it! Well, on Wednesday there will definitely be a trigger and that will come in the form of a strong low and warm front lifting north.

Late Wednesday morning into the early afternoon hours, this system will begin moving north towards Ohio. We’ll wake up on Wednesday morning and notice that the temperatures will be noticably cooler than they have been the last few days thanks to a cold front that moved through Tuesday evening. But that warm air will be fighting to get back north thanks to a warm front! By the early afternoon hours Wednesday, that front will still be well to our south here in West Central Ohio. Showers and some thunderstorms will signal the approach of this front early Wednesday afternoon here in West Central Ohio, check out the image of our Futurecast below.

Future 1

Thanks to this anticipated early afternoon rain, our atmosphere should remain relatively stable into the afternoon and evening. But further into Southern and Central Ohio closer to the warm front it will be a different story. As the warm front continues to lift north into Wednesday evening it will become the focus for an area of good instability and wind shear, storms will likely develop along and south of the front during the afternoon and evening.

Future 2

I talk about CAPE quite a bit on here a lot (Convective Available Potential Energy) this is the atmospheres ability to produce rapidly developing storms. Pretty high CAPE values will be in place tomorrow over Central and Southern Ohio, couple this with some good wind shear from the warm front to help spin and sustain potential storms and we could be looking at a decent chance for a few tornadoes over that part of the state.

CAPE Values over Ohio Wednesday afternoon

CAPE Values over Ohio Wednesday afternoon

SO FAR, the good news is that everything I have talked about so far will take place South of the viewing area. But as the front and the low shift north Wednesday night things could get interesting. The bad news is that the low and warm front will pass right through West Central Ohio into a pretty highly sheared environment. Basically any storms that could form would have a lot of help from wind shear and thus capable of producing damaging winds and possibly an isolated tornnado. The good news is that this will take place at night coming off of a day where we only made it into the low 60’s and had plenty of rain earlier in the day helping to limit instability in the atmosphere. The loss of daytime heating almost ALWAYS has a calming effect on the atmosphere. Here is a look at the placement of the system early Thursday morning.

Future 3

Wednesday night as the heart of the system moves through it will simply be moving through at an unfavorable time for severe weather. With that said there will be some pretty impressive wind shear in place that could produce some damaging wind and maybe even the possibility for an isoalted tornado Wednesday night. As of now I don’t think that thunderstorms will be able to make it this far north into Wednesday night, but if they do they’ll have to be watched VERY closely due to the high wind shear in place thanks to the low moving overhead. I’ll be sure to keep you posted!

ALSO! If you haven’t yet, be sure to check out our BRAND NEW, FREE Weather App! It’s perfect for tracking any potential storms!

APP PIC

-Kyle

 

 

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