Tuesday Night Severe Weather Threat For West Central Ohio

We’ll see mainly dry conditions for the majority of the day today but later tonight thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of Illinois and Indiana that could potentially impact West Central Ohio overnight tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has NW Ohio under a slight risk for severe storms for later today and tonight. For us here in West Central Ohio, I don’t think we’ll have to worry about any potential storms until late this evening after 10 or 11 PM. Here is a look at the damaging wind probabilities from the SPC. This map shows the percent chance of damaging winds within 25 miles of any point. Notice the higher percentages are into Northern Illinois and Indiana.

Today Wind Outlook

Similarly, this map shows the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point.

Today Tornado Outlook

Let me make this clear, the tornado threat here in NW Ohio is pretty low. Overnight damaging winds are my biggest concern here. And even then, I’m still a little skeptical about that, here’s why:

Short term forecast models are all in pretty good agreement that thunderstorms will begin to fire late this afternoon and evening along a frontal system working through the Great Lakes.

Wedn Morning Fronts

As the system moves near it will create a good deal of instability primarily across Northern Illinois and Indiana later today. This area is where thunderstorms will initiate thanks to that high instability. Lets look at a couple short-term forecast models and where they place the development of thunderstorms late today/overnight…

Here is the HRRR around 1 AM Wednesday morning, notice this model has a few storms trying to make their way into NW Ohio by this time. These storms would be moving Southeast.

HRRR

Here is the 4km NAM. This model doesn’t bring activity into the region until closer to daybreak Wednesday. Again, these storms would be moving SE.

4km Nam

Here is the RPM, this model has storms basically hugging the Ohio/Michigan border. Around 2 AM Wednesday morning.

rpm

Notice that ALL these models keep thunderstorms out of West Central Ohio into the early morning hours Wednesday. The higher chance for severe weather (you can see this in the SPC outlook maps above) are definitely where storms are expected to develop later this evening, this is where they will have the best access to daytime heating and instability. These storms will head our way into the overnight hours, but they will likely be weaker than they were over Northern Illinois and Indiana where they developed. I’ll definitely keep you posted through the evening on this developing situation! You can catch me later this evening at 5 and 6 on Your News Now!

-Kyle

 

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