June is starting off on an active note with severe weather possible across parts of Ohio as we head into the middle of this week. A cold front that is bringing us showers and thunderstorms Monday evening will move south on Tuesday but will eventually lift back north as a warm front on Wednesday.
It’s along this warm front that we’ll see severe weather develop both Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s start with Tuesday: As of now it looks as if this will be the best chance for severe weather, thankfully for us here in West Central Ohio all of the activity on Tuesday will stay well to the west. The aforementioned warm front will be the focus for what will likely be a pretty strong MCS (mesoscale convective system) which I have circled in the graphic below. If you’re wondering what an MCS is, basically it’s a large cluster of thunderstorms that becomes organized and take on a round or linear shape lasting for several hours. These systems are usually likely to be found and traveling along warm fronts that are the boundary between some very warm moist air and cooler more stable air.
Here is the current severe weather outlook from the SPC for Tuesday. They have an area from Nebraska to Illinois highlighted in a Moderate Risk. The anticipation is that this MCS will create conditions very favorable for widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
As this MCS continues to track along the warm front it will likely be into Central Indiana by early Wednesday.
IMPORTANT! The track of any potential MCS is HIGHLY dependent on where the warm front is. As of now, most forecast models including our Futurecast shown above keep the front just far enough South to keep West Central Ohio out of the bullseye for any MCS track on Wednesday. Here is the latest SPC severe weather outlook for Wednesday, notice that West Central Ohio is just on the northern border of the slight risk area.
Just a shift of about 50 to 100 miles north from the warm front will mean our chance for severe weather including damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado will greatly increase. To put it simply, this is going to be a VERY close call and one that I’m not comfortable saying “were out of the woods” with right now. This will be one that I’ll be watching very closely over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned!