This is all about perspective for me, this past winter here in West Central Ohio was a rough one. I made a personal pact with myself that I wasn’t going to complain, but embrace any heat that may come our way this Spring/Summer! Well, that heat is here and it looks as if Tuesday will be our first 90 degree day of 2014!
With a strong area of high pressure off to our south, heat and humidity will continue to pump into the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday. Highs should be able to top out in the low 90’s with any showers and thunderstorms likely staying off to the north of us. Along with the heat this set up will allow for dew points to rise near 70 degrees making for a very hot/humid day here in West Central Ohio. With all of this heat and humidity in place, there will be A LOT of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) in the atmosphere. We’ll likely see CAPE values exceeding 3,000 to 4,000 j/jk, this is very high!
But even with this POTENTIAL energy available, you ALWAYS need something to be the trigger for storms to develop. In this case, that trigger is a cold front that will reside well to our north on Tuesday.
By Wednesday the cold front will SLOWLY push further south bringing a little better of a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to West Central Ohio. But even with the front closer, it’s still up in the air to how far the strong area of high pressure will allow the front to advance.
IF storms can develop on Wednesday a few of them could be on the strong side, but they will likely be pretty scattered. This system will continue to barely move into Wednesday and Thursday mostly because of a very stagnant upper level pattern. An upper level ridge of high pressure will maintain its hold over the Great Lakes, and with that in place, this system will continue at a snail’s pace.
By Thursday and Friday this upper level ridge will break down allowing for the front to finally move into West Central Ohio, that’s when we’ll see the best chance for rain in my opinion.
This is a pattern very typical of summer time and it’s certainly going to feel like it outside this week! Stay cool!