Weekend Severe Weather Threat

A much more warm and moist air mass will settle into West Central Ohio this upcoming weekend with a couple of chances for severe thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday!

Most of the day on Saturday will probably be dry with just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms expected in the region thanks to a warm front lifting through. It’s that warm front that by the end up the day will bring warmer temperatures into the mid 80’s along with rising dew points well into the 60’s. Some very high CAPE values/instability will build into the region by the evening hours.

Some extremely high CAPE values potentially above 4,000 j/kg are possible by about 4 or 5 PM over parts of Illinois and Indiana.

Late Saturday CAPE

The latest models show a possible Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) developing in this are of very high CAPE late in the day on Saturday. This MCS will likely track across Indiana late evening and then into the Western half of Ohio by sunset potentially.

Future 1

Most forecast models (including the above image) show this MCS diving just to the south of West Central Ohio. But this will be something to watch because if it shifts another 50-100 miles or so North, we could potentially be in for a pretty good damaging wind storm here late evening. But for now, thankfully, it looks as if that threat will stay just to our south. With that said, we still have the chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio heading into the overnight hours.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

The chance for severe weather on Sunday will be highly dependent on what happens on Saturday night. Basically if we can clear out and see some sunshine on Sunday after Saturday night’s activity we may be able to see the atmosphere destabilize enough to see a few strong to severe storms develop Sunday afternoon with a second cold front moving through. Forecast models are pointing to that scenario with CAPE vales once again on the rise into Sunday afternoon.

Sunday CAPE

By about 3 or 4PM models show that second cold front moving into the region. This would be an ideal time for showers and thunderstorms to develop during peak daytime heating.

Future 2

But with that said I’m still a bit skeptical based on the fact that we may not clear out a whole lot from Saturday night’s storms that roll through. The details for Sunday’s severe weather chance is still a bit foggy, but once we see how storms play out Saturday night we should be able to paint a better picture of what could happen on Sunday.

We’ll be watching this weekend! I’ll have all the latest tonight at 10 and 11 and Allison will be in on Saturday for further coverage!

ALSO! This weekend would be a GREAT time to have our new weather app! It’s free, check it out. I use it all the time to check the latest radar and track storms when I’m away from my desk!

APP PIC

Have a great weekend everyone!

-Kyle

 

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