Wednesday West Central Ohio Severe Weather UPDATE

9/9/2014

I’m still watching for the potential for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening here in West Central Ohio that could include damaging winds and the threat for an isolated tornado.

All of Northwest Ohio continues to be under a “Slight Risk” Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front moves into the region.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

In my post yesterday I talked extensively about shear and CAPE and how these two severe weather parameters could influence storms on Wednesday. Here’s the blog post I won’t re-hash much on the dynamics of the system today because not that much has changed. The shear will be in place with this storm to help aid severe weather but the question continues to be whether or not we’ll get enough instability or CAPE during the afternoon and evening.

As of this writing, severe storms are ongoing over parts of the midwest and will race eastward overnight into the early afternoon hours tomorrow. The latest models show that the remnants of these storms will spread clouds, showers and thunderstorms over West Central Ohio into the early afternoon hours. This would be GOOD news since it will drastically lower our severe weather chance by keeping our atmosphere free of ample mid day sunshine thus keeping us more stable.

Wed 2 PM Future

Notice in the picture above that as the remnants of Tuesday’s storms are moving through West Central Ohio, the main cold front will still be well off to our west. It’s the time period between when the first round of showers and thunderstorms move through  and when the actual cold front brings the second (potentially stronger) round of storms into West Central Ohio when we’ll see if we can get some clearing.

Wed 4 PM Future

By 3 or 4 in the afternoon on Wednesday all eyes will be along the cold front to see the severity of storms that develop. If the area I have highlighted in red gets some sunshine and destabilization late afternoon then it’s very possible we could be looking at a pretty good severe weather set up. For now, our Futurecast model shows the main front moving through late evening with the better chance for widespread damaging wind probably staying to our south and west where the better instability will likely develop (CAPE) during the day.

Wed 10 PM Future

But as I mentioned in my previous blog post, it doesn’t take much CAPE at all in a situation like tomorrow’s to generate severe thunderstorms thanks to strong wind shear that will be in place. Here are my main concerns Wednesday into the 4PM to 11PM range as the strong cold front moves in.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

Damaging wind is the biggest concern along with the chance for an isolated tornado. There could be heavier downpours possible in some of the storms too leading to over an inch of rain in some locations into late Wednesday evening.

Kyle Future Rainfall

Be sure to keep up with the storms on our new weather app as well, it’s a GREAT tool for tracking storms.

APP PIC

I’ll be sure to keep you updated, i’ll have the latest tonight as well on Your News Now at 10 and 11!

-Kyle

 

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