Welcome To October’s Temperature Roller Coaster!

Are you ready? It’s that time of year! The time of the year when mother nature will REALLY begin to have a hard time making up her mind on whether or not she wants to hang on to summer, or dive in head first into Fall.

The ride begins on Thursday with West Central Ohio expected to warm into the low 80’s in what will very much feel like a Summer day. But the warmth will be very short-lived thanks to a strong cold front slated to move through on Friday. The front will begin to move in from the West on Thursday night bringing scattered showers to the region into the pre-dawn hours on Friday with the front expected to move through sometime early afternoon during the day.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

As of now the chance for severe weather with this front is very low. Nonetheless, I’ll still be watching Friday early afternoon as the front passes through for the small chance one or two storms along it become severe.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

As of now the big reason why I’m not very concerned with severe weather is due to the fact that there won’t be much CAPE in the region as the front moves through early Friday afternoon. Again, CAPE is the atmospheres potential to rapidly produce storms with strong updrafts to fuel them. Almost no sunshine is forecasted for Friday, that allows ample cloud cover to help keep the atmosphere stable. ALSO, the area of low pressure seen in the above picture will be pulling pretty far north and occluding from the main cold front. This process helps to cut off low-level moisture (higher dew points) from making it this far north. At best, dew points on Friday will make it into the low 60’s, that’s not all that impressive for severe weather.

There will be high amounts of wind shear present over the region as the cold front moves through though.

NAM SHEAR

This wind shear along the front will help to initiate widespread rain through the Great Lakes most of the day Friday. Wind shear (a change in wind direction or speed in the atmosphere) is a lifting process. This lift along the cold front will no doubt trigger rain, but without that extra ummph from instability and higher CAPE, I would be surprised if we just saw nothing more than regular showers and thunderstorms with occasional higher wind gusts during the day. And if you’re thinking about heading to a game Friday night. The showers should be beginning to taper off by kick off but be sure to dress warm and bring the umbrella just in case!

Here’s the biggest news! It’s looking like temperatures on Saturday will STRUGGLE to break 50 degrees behind this strong cold front. My forecast right now has us at 52 for the high, but honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if we didn’t even make it out of the 40’s! You can see the COOL air in this model, the time shown is Saturday afternoon.

NAM Temps

As I mentioned earlier, I’m not that concerned about Friday. But you know I’ll have my eye on it regardless! And if you haven’t yet, please check out our FREE weather app! You can always keep an eye on storms with our interactive radar along with receive automatic updates on watches and warnings!

APP PIC

-Kyle

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