Big Warm Up Followed By MUCH Colder Weather AND Snow?

We broke a record high today in Lima! Temperatures nearly made it to 80 degrees in what felt like an early Summer day.

Record Heat

But after a cold front moves through on Tuesday bringing us rain, a slow and steady drop in temperatures will be felt the remainder of the week. But it will take more than the front that moves through Tuesday to cool us down to temperatures cold enough for possible snow. Once the front passes by Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will settle into the 50’s both Wednesday and Thursday before an area of low pressure drops out of Canada Thursday night and Friday.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

This low will filter in the coldest temperatures we have felt so far this Fall season with highs in the 40’s expected both Friday and Saturday. Forecast models have also been coming into pretty good agreement that temperature profiles in the atmosphere could be cold enough for some light snow during the day on Friday. When I ask myself will it be cold enough to snow, I almost always first look at where the “540 Thickness Line” will be. This is a commonly used threshold by meteorologists in determining where the boundary will be that separates rain from snow! For MUCH more on that, please read this What Exactly Is The 540 Thickness Line?

OK, I’m assuming you read my past blog post that explains what the 540 Line is. By Friday when the low pictured above drops into the Great Lakes, it will pull down some VERY cold temperatures. Here is a look at where the 540 thickness line is forecasted to be from both the GFS and the ECMWF (European) models.

ECMWF Thickness Friday

ECMWF Thickness Friday

GFS Thickness Friday

GFS Thickness Friday

With both models in good agreement that the 540 line will be well South of West Central Ohio, I can now say, with more confidence, that if any precipitation falls on Friday there is a good chance it could be in the form of snow.

So now I have to ask myself, will there be any precipitation in the first place? Forecast models are also showing the possibility that precipitation will be possible Friday. Here is a look at both the GFS and EURO that shows light precipitation being a possibility Friday afternoon and evening.

GFS Precip

Euro Precip

So what do I think?

It’s only Monday but signs are definitely pointing towards the fact that if some precipitation can fall on Friday it has the potential to be in the form of snow. The above area of low pressure is basically a clipper system that would just bring light rain/snow to the region on Friday if forecast models continue on the path they are on. IF we did see any snow it would likely be VERY light and probably not accumulating. But this is definitely something I’ll be watching all week long!

REMEMBER you can also download out weather app by searching for “YNN Storm Authority” on your mobile device!

APP PIC

-Kyle

 

 

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