An Active Winter Weather Pattern For West Central Ohio!

(1/27/15)

An active winter weather pattern will continue here in West Central Ohio with the possibility of rain, freezing rain and snow this coming Thursday.

Even though we may see all types of winter weather on Thursday, don’t be fooled, light accumulations are expected. The day looks to start off with the threat for LIGHT freezing rain that will eventually change to rain as the morning progresses. By the time the sun comes up temperatures will br right around the freezing mark as a band of precipitation moves through.

Future 1

Some of this could fall in the form of freezing rain, especially early and before sunrise when temperatures are still potentially below 32 degrees. Based on several computer model forecasts (called an ensemble) here is a look at NOAA’s percentages Thursday morning for over 1/100th of an inch of freezing rain, as you can see most of West Central Ohio has over a 50 percent chance. And while a few hundredths of an inch doesn’t sound like much, it’s definitely enough to make those roads slick. As of now I would say that we’ll see anywhere from .01″ to .05″ of freezing rain Thursday morning.

NOAA percentages of over .01" of freezing rain Thursday morning

NOAA percentages of over .01″ of freezing rain Thursday morning

This light freezing rain will switch to rain late in the morning before we see a break in any precipitation until late afternoon. By 3 or 4 PM models are showing a cold front that will move through. With this front will come light scattered snow showers.

Future 2

But I don’t expect much accumulation with this snow, we should stay below one inch here in West Central Ohio. Just like above, here is a look at the percentages for accumulating snow OVER 1 inch. As you can see, the chance is pretty slim for most of us. The higher totals will likely be into southern Michigan.

HPC Snow Chance Thursday

All in all, Thursday isn’t looking too bad at all. You’ll just want to make sure to be aware of the latest road conditions and give yourself a little extra time just in case 🙂

Now on to the weekend where forecast models are hinting at the possibility for accumulating snow once again on Sunday.

With Sunday being 5 days away all I’m going to say right now is that it is looking like a good chance for snow for us here in West Central Ohio. An area of low pressure will develop over the Midwest late Saturday and move through the Ohio or Tennessee Valley. This low will not be the typical “Clipper” that we have dealt with so many times this winter, this will be more of a classic “Panhandle Hook” that develops near the panhandle of Oklahoma and is able to pull up more moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico, and thus, bringing the possibility for heavier snow. So as of now, the BEST I can say is that somewhere from the Great Lakes down into the Virginias a substantial amount of snow is possible. As I have said before and will say again, it’s still way too far away to say with any certainty where this low will develop and track. As a matter of fact, the energy that will eventually develop and strengthen the low is still way out in the Pacific. It’s after this energy gets over land that forecast models will really begin to have a good look at its dynamics.

Sunday Energy

To further drive home my point, look at the difference between forecast models on the development of the low as is moves through on Sunday. Here is a look at the European model run from early Tuesday showing a mature and developed area of low pressure over Eastern Ohio by late Sunday evening.

Euro Low

The placement and strength of this low would definitely mean a good snow for us here in West Central Ohio. BUT REMEMBER, this is just ONE model run and will very likely change. This is NOT my forecast, just an example of where ONE model places the storm.

You just saw the European model, now here is the American GFS model for Sunday. This was from this afternoon’s run of the GFS which shows a weaker area of low pressure MUCH further south late Sunday evening. How much further south you ask? By about four of five HUNDRED miles and over the Carolinas.

GFS Low

If this model turns out to be correct, we would maybe get an inch or two on Sunday with the heavier snow falling over the Virginias. With this much inconsistency between models right now it’s unrealistic for ANYONE to call snow totals or predict a specific track for Sunday’s low.

Just know that I’ll be watching it VERY closely all week-long and will update as we get closer to the weekend!

Remember our weather app too! You can get the latest radar, forecasts and even read this blog from it 🙂

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Have a good week everyone!

-Kyle

 

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