The threat for severe weather will return to West Central Ohio on Wednesday thanks to a strong cold front expected to move into the region late in the day. Today (Tuesday) the aforementioned front is stretched across the Midwest sparking isolated severe weather through Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri.
On Wednesday the front will shift to the Great Lakes with the parent area of low pressure expected to track across northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Looking at the severe weather outlook on Wednesday, it’s no surprise that the better chance for severe weather will be to our north and closer to the dynamics of the low pressure system.
But that doesn’t mean that we here in West Central Ohio should let our guard down. As this front approaches during the day we’ll likely see some of the remnants of Tuesdays storms affecting the viewing area sometime in the 11 AM to 3 PM timeframe. Here is a look at the Futurecast around 2 PM Wednesday.
These showers and thunderstorms that move through during this time will have moved well out ahead of the actual cold front. This means that they will be detached from the better forcing along the front and will likely be sub-severe.
By the time the front begins to approach into the evening hours I’ll be paying close attention to how much sunshine can break out after any storms earlier in the day.
Most forecasts call for modest destabilization after the first line of showers and thunderstorms moves through. By the time the actual front arrives later in the evening the strength of any storms will be directly related to the amount of instability that is built up thanks to sunshine. There is some good upper level wind shear accompanying this front as well, but the good news is that the best upper level wind support will likely lag behind the surface front. In the picture below I have the strongest upper level winds circled, this is the RPM model projection around 2 PM Wednesday afternoon.
Here is the RPM model projection of the stronger upper level winds around midnight, closer to the time the actual front will be moving in. Notice that the strongest winds are still to the north and west of Ohio.
So what does this all mean?
Ideally in a severe weather outbreak you look for the strong upper level winds, instability and frontal passage to come together at the same time. In this case it doesn’t appear as if any of the above three will come together. The upper level wind support will be behind the surface cold front and the instability will probably be waning as the front moves through into the overnight hours. The ingredients for this one just don’t seem to be coming together as of now to give us a great severe threat. I think there will be a few severe thunderstorms possible with isolated damaging wind, but other than that most of the storms tomorrow should be below severe limits.
I’ll be sure to keep you updated if things change! Remember to download our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and weather alerts!