Joaquin Could Be The First Hurricane To Make Landfall In The Continental U.S. Since July ’14

9/30/15

First thing’s first, Joaquin is pronounced “Wah-Keen”. Now that that’s out-of-the-way let’s take a good look at where this potentially land falling hurricane could impact in the coming days.

As of now, Joaquin is sitting nearly stationary about 175 miles ENE of the Central Bahamas. It’s currently a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 85 miles per hour.

Sat Shot

Over the next couple of days Joaquin is expected to make a much-anticipated north turn while quickly strengthening and reaching low Category Three status with winds of 110 mph by Friday morning.

Joaquin 1

The storm is projected to move north and maintain its category three status into Saturday afternoon.

Joaquin 2

And then by Sunday morning could be looking at a landfall either as a strong Cat 2 storm or weak Cat 3 in the Carolinas/Virginia coast.

Joaquin 3

Again, this forecast could change but forecast models seem to be honing in much more today on the Carolina Coast today. Here is a look at what’s called a spaghetti plot showing numerous computer forecast models and their trajectories.

Tropical Spaghetti Models

Even though the majority of forecasts now point this storm towards the United States, there is still one major forecast model, the ECMWF (otherwise known as the European model) that has maintained a north/northeastward track out into the Atlantic Ocean for the past two days. This would no doubt be some very good news but it appears that the vast majority of forecast models now show this storm making a U.S. landfall.

If indeed Joaquin makes landfall this weekend it would be the first time a hurricane made landfall in the continental United States since July of 2014 (Arthur). It has been since 2005 (Wilma) that a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) has made landfall with the United States. Here is a list from NOAA of ALL the recent land falling hurricanes.

If the track continues on its current path we could see a cloudy, cool and rainy weekend here in West Central Ohio. But as far as any increased wind or flooding, that appears VERY unlikely here in Ohio due to this storm. I’ll keep you updated!

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-Kyle

 

 

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