Two rounds of rain will move through West Central Ohio in the next 24 hours. The first round will move through Wednesday night into Thursday morning here in West Central Ohio bringing mainly just rain and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms through noon on Thursday. Once this first round comes to an end early Thursday afternoon, we’ll get a break from the precipitation through most of the afternoon hours. It’s not until Thursday evening that a cold front will begin to approach and we’ll see our chance for some stronger storms. Here is a look at the current severe weather outlook for Thursday, but as far as we are concerned, Thursday evening.
The BIG question on Thursday afternoon is how much sunshine we’ll see here in NW Ohio. If we can stay cloudy most of the afternoon and early evening, thunderstorms that develop Thursday afternoon over higher risk areas to the west (see image above) will be moving into a less favorable environment here in Ohio by the time they reach us into the evening hours.
There is no doubt that higher instability and better overall conditions for severe storms will be to the southwest of us here in Lima. However, if we can see a couple of hours of sunshine Thursday afternoon and our temperatures warm into the low 70’s our chance for severe storms will increase. For now I’m leaning towards the scenario that we won’t clear out much Thursday afternoon thanks to residual cloud cover from morning rain, this would lessen our chance for severe weather Thursday evening. Even in this scenario, we’re still looking at a decent chance for some damaging winds of 50 mph+ here in West Central Ohio between 5 and 10 PM. Here is a look at Futurecast around 7 PM Thursday evening.
Wind shear is pretty strong with this system too! Because of that, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out either in the 5 to 10 PM timeframe.
The bottom line with this system is that we will see rain, wind gusts of over 40 mph throughout the day on Thursday, and the potential for a few severe storms Thursday evening. Be sure to check our Facebook page and our weather app throughout the day on Thursday for updates!