Welcome To Mid-Summer! (Sort of…)

5/24/16

Yes I know, we’re still a month away from the official beginning of the summer season but the weather pattern we are going to experience the rest of this week is one more reminiscent of July/August. Basically what we’re dealing with is a VERY slowly moving frontal system that will impact the Plains with several days of possible severe weather. For us, a retreating high pressure system to the south and east will allow a much more humid air mass to build into Ohio.

Set Up

Over the next several days not only will temperatures continue to rise, but so will dew points. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere, the higher the dew point, the more sticky it begins to feel outside. Starting Wednesday, dew points are going to rise and stay in the 60’s through the Memorial Day Weekend.

Future Dew Points

Couple those high dew points with temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday in the low to mid 80’s, and you’re going to have a much more uncomfortable warmth here in West Central Ohio.

Future Temperatures

With the added heat and humidity here in Ohio we’ll have the chance for “pop up” showers and thunderstorms pretty much every day this week and this weekend. By no means will any day be a rain out, and the reason for that is because there really won’t be any real forcing mechanism (cold front, warm front, low pressure system) to bring more organized thunderstorms or rain to the region. The better forcing will remain out west through the weekend, and with the better forcing will come the better chance for severe weather.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

As you can see, I am not expecting “pop up” thunderstorms here in Ohio to be severe. But we could see a few storms over the next 4 or 5 days drop some heavy downpours and small hail. Bottom line is that it’s going to be a “rinse, wash, and repeat” forecast through Memorial Day with highs in the 80’s and isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day!

Have a great night everyone!

-Kyle

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Joaquin Could Be The First Hurricane To Make Landfall In The Continental U.S. Since July ’14

9/30/15

First thing’s first, Joaquin is pronounced “Wah-Keen”. Now that that’s out-of-the-way let’s take a good look at where this potentially land falling hurricane could impact in the coming days.

As of now, Joaquin is sitting nearly stationary about 175 miles ENE of the Central Bahamas. It’s currently a Category 1 Hurricane with winds of 85 miles per hour.

Sat Shot

Over the next couple of days Joaquin is expected to make a much-anticipated north turn while quickly strengthening and reaching low Category Three status with winds of 110 mph by Friday morning.

Joaquin 1

The storm is projected to move north and maintain its category three status into Saturday afternoon.

Joaquin 2

And then by Sunday morning could be looking at a landfall either as a strong Cat 2 storm or weak Cat 3 in the Carolinas/Virginia coast.

Joaquin 3

Again, this forecast could change but forecast models seem to be honing in much more today on the Carolina Coast today. Here is a look at what’s called a spaghetti plot showing numerous computer forecast models and their trajectories.

Tropical Spaghetti Models

Even though the majority of forecasts now point this storm towards the United States, there is still one major forecast model, the ECMWF (otherwise known as the European model) that has maintained a north/northeastward track out into the Atlantic Ocean for the past two days. This would no doubt be some very good news but it appears that the vast majority of forecast models now show this storm making a U.S. landfall.

If indeed Joaquin makes landfall this weekend it would be the first time a hurricane made landfall in the continental United States since July of 2014 (Arthur). It has been since 2005 (Wilma) that a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) has made landfall with the United States. Here is a list from NOAA of ALL the recent land falling hurricanes.

If the track continues on its current path we could see a cloudy, cool and rainy weekend here in West Central Ohio. But as far as any increased wind or flooding, that appears VERY unlikely here in Ohio due to this storm. I’ll keep you updated!

Be sure to download our FREE weather app too!

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-Kyle

 

 

Severe Weather Threat Wednesday

8/18/15

The threat for severe weather will return to West Central Ohio on Wednesday thanks to a strong cold front expected to move into the region late in the day. Today (Tuesday) the aforementioned front is stretched across the Midwest sparking isolated severe weather through Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri.

Future

On Wednesday the front will shift to the Great Lakes with the parent area of low pressure expected to track across northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Looking at the severe weather outlook on Wednesday, it’s no surprise that the better chance for severe weather will be to our north and closer to the dynamics of the low pressure system.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

But that doesn’t mean that we here in West Central Ohio should let our guard down. As this front approaches during the day we’ll likely see some of the remnants of Tuesdays storms affecting the viewing area sometime in the 11 AM to 3 PM timeframe. Here is a look at the Futurecast around 2 PM Wednesday.

Future 1

These showers and thunderstorms that move through during this time will have moved well out ahead of the actual cold front. This means that they will be detached from the better forcing along the front and will likely be sub-severe.

By the time the front begins to approach into the evening hours I’ll be paying close attention to how much sunshine can break out after any storms earlier in the day.

Future 2

Most forecasts call for modest destabilization after the first line of showers and thunderstorms moves through. By the time the actual front arrives later in the evening the strength of any storms will be directly related to the amount of instability that is built up thanks to sunshine. There is some good upper level wind shear accompanying this front as well, but the good news is that the best upper level wind support will likely lag behind the surface front. In the picture below I have the strongest upper level winds circled, this is the RPM model projection around 2 PM Wednesday afternoon.

500 Wind

Here is the RPM model projection of the stronger upper level winds around midnight, closer to the time the actual front will be moving in. Notice that the strongest winds are still to the north and west of Ohio.

500 Wind 2

So what does this all mean?

Ideally in a severe weather outbreak you look for the strong upper level winds, instability and frontal passage to come together at the same time. In this case it doesn’t appear as if any of the above three will come together. The upper level wind support will be behind the surface cold front and the instability will probably be waning as the front moves through into the overnight hours. The ingredients for this one just don’t seem to be coming together as of now to give us a great severe threat. I think there will be a few severe thunderstorms possible with isolated damaging wind, but other than that most of the storms tomorrow should be below severe limits.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

I’ll be sure to keep you updated if things change! Remember to download our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and weather alerts!

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-Kyle

Heavy Rain/Severe Storms Possible Into Next Week

7/10/15

Just what we here in West Central Ohio need to hear right? As we venture through the weekend we’ll start things off with a partly to mostly sunny day on Saturday but by Sunday the chance for showers and thunderstorms will return.

The same stationary front that has been sitting to our south for the last 3 or 4 days will creep back northward as a warm front for the second half of the weekend. AS OF NOW it’s still up in the air as to how far this warm front will be able to lift north. The further north the front lifts, the better chance we will see for both more heavy rain and severe weather. Here is a look at the position of the front based on the RPM forecast model as of late Sunday. (Keep in mind, that I’m thinking any showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will probably be below severe limits.)

Future 1

This front will be the boundary for a VERY warm and unstable air mass into next week. Due to increased heat and humidity CAPE values have the potential to be very high especially Monday here in West Central Ohio. Forecast models are still divided on how far north the front will make it on Monday. The GFS has the front the furthest north and brings the very unstable air mass into NW Ohio on Monday. Here is a look at the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values into Monday evening. Numbers above 2 or 3 thousand j/kg indicate the potential for an explosive storm environment. Notice much of the region is in the 3 to 4 thousand j/kg range.

GFS CAPE

When you couple that high CAPE with a warm front in the region that definitely catches a meteorologists attention! This scenario for Monday is still 3 days away and is definitely not set in stone, just something to watch over the next 24 to 48 hours to see if it pans out or not.

Here is a look at the NAM forecast model CAPE on Monday. Notice it’s shifted further west and south but still extremely high!

NAM CAPE

Basically the point I’m trying to make is that somewhere in the Southern Great Lakes region will be in line for a severe weather outbreak on Monday. It’s all dependent on where exactly that warm front sets up. You can bet I’ll be watching, especially Monday!

If you haven’t yet, check out our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and any watches/warnings that may be issued!

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-Kyle

 

 

A Hot Friday With Thunderstorms To Cool Us Down

9/4/2014

Tomorrow may be one of our last chances to reach 90 degrees for the remainder of the summer thanks to a cold front that will pass through late tomorrow evening here in West Central Ohio. During the day temperatures will easily warm into the upper 80’s along with continued dew points hovering around 70 degrees, that means another hot and muggy day.

But the warmth will NOT last into the weekend thanks to a cold front expected to move in by the end of the day Friday. With this front moving into such a hot and muggy environment, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by the late afternoon hours across parts of Indiana and Michigan. Based on the latest forecast models, these storms will track East/Southeast into West Central Ohio by the late evening hours. Here is a look at Futurecast by 8 PM Friday evening.

8 PM Future

This will likely end up being a broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving through West Central Ohio in the 8PM to Midnight timeframe. Headed out to a football game tomorrow night? Be sure to keep an eye to the sky!

The good news is that these storms should mostly stay BELOW severe limits. Isolated wind damage is possible, but the overall severe threat will be low thanks to a general lack up upper wind support (wind shear) as these storms move through. Here is a look at some of that shear, notice the higher shear values (darker blue and purple) stay WELL north of the area into Friday afternoon and evening.

Shear Friday

Without this wind shear support the storms that develop along this cold front will have a hard time maintaining themselves. Good wind shear allows storms to develop longer lasting updrafts that can lead to stronger storms. A few of these storms could be on the strong side, but the overall threat remains low at this time. An isolated damaging wind gust is possible along with possible flooding where slower moving storms set up.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

Even though the severe threat is low, there is a good chance thunderstorms will be in the region. If you’re headed to a football game be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecasts and radar. There is no better way to do that than with our Storm Authority Weather App which can be downloaded for free!

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-Kyle

Will We Hit 90 Degrees This Summer?

We still have yet to hit 90 degrees this summer and now that were into the month of September we’re really beginning to run out of chances! The good news it that if you do want a 90 degree day we have a shot later this week on Friday before another cold front moves through bringing a cool down into the weekend.

Temperatures AND dew points will continue to rise here on Thursday with highs creeping into the mid 80’s, but more importantly, dew point readings potentially into the low 70’s. That will make it feel MUCH more muggy outside on Thursday.

Future Dew Points

We’ll hang onto those high dew points on Friday with temperatures expected to top out near 90 degrees! As of now, my forecasted high is at 89 degrees. But I would not be surprised if a few locations here in West Central Ohio were able to reach 90! Here’s a look at projected temperatures by early Friday afternoon.

Future Temperatures

All this heat and humidity will be wiped away thanks to a cold front late Friday with a round of showers and thunderstorms moving through. As of now, Futurecast shows the cold front moving through late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. And with a hot and humid air mass in place, there is a good chance scattered showers and thunderstorms will be present late in the day.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Any time a cold front is moving through a primed air mass like the one that will be in place on Friday, I naturally look to see if there will be any threat for severe weather. CAPE will be high here in West Central Ohio on Friday thanks to the heat and humidity, meaning that there will be plenty of POTENTIAL energy to work with as the front moves through. CAPE values by late Friday afternoon will likely easily exceed 2,000 J/Kg which is plenty to develop scattered showers and thunderstorms along the cold front moving through.

CAPE Friday

So we’ll have the CAPE but will we have the wind shear to back it up? The short answer is NO.

Most of the higher wind shear will be present well north of the cold front moving through. When you get the combination of high wind shear, high CAPE and a trigger (cold front) you usually have a legitimate threat for severe weather. On Friday afternoon and evening we’ll have 2 of the 3. Here is a look at the highest wind shear values late Friday afternoon, notice the highest wind shear is WELL north of the Southern Great Lakes.

GFS Friday Shear

Without the wind shear present we’ll still get thunderstorms late Friday thanks to the passing front and high CAPE, and sure, a few of them could produce some isolated damaging wind. But overall, the threat for severe weather looks pretty low thanks to very low wind shear. Either way it is still expected to be potentially stormy Friday night, so if you’re planning on heading out to a game be sure to keep an eye to the sky! You can also download our NEW weather app so track any storms moving through on your phone.

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I’ll be sure to keep you updated!

-Kyle

 

Severe Weather For Parts Of The Midwest Labor Day Weekend

We’re in for a change in our weather pattern as we head into the Labor Day weekend, and unfortunately it’s looking like a pretty active weather period can be expected in the Midwest through early next week.

A warm front lifting out of the south on Friday will signal the change. This front will bring a return of hotter and more humid conditions into the upcoming weekend. But there is good news! Even with the front in the region on Friday, it does look as if we’ll stay dry here in West Central Ohio for the first Football Friday Night of the season. We’ll just have to deal with a little more heat and mugginess.

After a dry first half of our Saturday, ample moisture building in out of the south will bring an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms into the evening and overnight hours. These showers and thunderstorms are NOT expected to be severe but they could bring with them some heavy rain into Sunday morning.

Saturday Rain

Once that system moves off to our east on Sunday we’ll see a gradual decrease in rain and clouds by the afternoon and evening. My attention will then shift out West where a better chance for severe weather could set up Sunday and Monday.

The National Weather Service already has an area highlighted on Sunday in anticipation of a severe weather outbreak.

Sunday Outlook

A couple of very key ingredients are expected to come together on Sunday in the region highlighted above that will help to spark severe storms.

1) Wind Shear

High wind shear is expected over Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota on Sunday afternoon. Wind shear is basically a change in DIRECTION or SPEED in wind as you go higher up into the sky. The more there is a change in wind direction or speed from the surface and up through the atmosphere, the more chance you have for thunderstorms that will be long-lasting and able to maintain themselves for hours at a time.

Sunday Shear

2) Instability

High CAPE, or, Convective Available Potential Energy is expected as well in this region on Sunday. The higher the CAPE values, the more primed the atmosphere is for any POTENTIAL thunderstorms.

Sunday CAPE

3) A Trigger

Without some sort of trigger, we could have all the CAPE in the world and it could still be a sunny day. In this case however, the trigger will be a strong cold front pushing through the Midwest that will be able to tap into high CAPE values and good wind shear likely triggering a round of severe weather.

By Monday all of this activity will push east and closer to us here in West Central Ohio. The same ingredients I highlighted above will be in play on Labor Day. As the aforementioned cold front continues to push east it will bring the focus for potential severe weather into parts of Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana where the best CAPE and Shear will be on Monday. Where you see the cold front, high shear and CAPE come together, that’s where the chance for severe storms will be.

In the graphic below I have circled an area where shear will be high, this is also the region where CAPE values will exceed 2,000 J/kg. Both shear and CAPE will NOT be as high on Monday as it was on Sunday further west. Notice that Western Ohio is not included in the area I have circled.

Monday Shear

Here is a look at the CAPE on Monday.

Labor Day CAPE

This set up certainly catches my eye especially since it will be closer to West Central Ohio on Monday. As of now it looks as if strong to severe storms will develop late Monday afternoon over Southern Wisconsin and Illinois and then push east into the evening. By the time they would reach West Central Ohio they will be outrunning both better CAPE and shear in the atmosphere. Nonetheless, this is still something to watch late Monday. This system is still four days away and if it speeds up (which is a possibility) that would shift the focus for severe weather closer to home. This is something to keep an eye on over the weekend, I’ll be sure to keep you updated!

-Kyle

If you haven’t yet, be sure to download our FREE Weather App! I use it all the time for tracking storms when I’m not in the office.

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Weekend Severe Weather Threat

A much more warm and moist air mass will settle into West Central Ohio this upcoming weekend with a couple of chances for severe thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday!

Most of the day on Saturday will probably be dry with just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms expected in the region thanks to a warm front lifting through. It’s that warm front that by the end up the day will bring warmer temperatures into the mid 80’s along with rising dew points well into the 60’s. Some very high CAPE values/instability will build into the region by the evening hours.

Some extremely high CAPE values potentially above 4,000 j/kg are possible by about 4 or 5 PM over parts of Illinois and Indiana.

Late Saturday CAPE

The latest models show a possible Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) developing in this are of very high CAPE late in the day on Saturday. This MCS will likely track across Indiana late evening and then into the Western half of Ohio by sunset potentially.

Future 1

Most forecast models (including the above image) show this MCS diving just to the south of West Central Ohio. But this will be something to watch because if it shifts another 50-100 miles or so North, we could potentially be in for a pretty good damaging wind storm here late evening. But for now, thankfully, it looks as if that threat will stay just to our south. With that said, we still have the chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio heading into the overnight hours.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

The chance for severe weather on Sunday will be highly dependent on what happens on Saturday night. Basically if we can clear out and see some sunshine on Sunday after Saturday night’s activity we may be able to see the atmosphere destabilize enough to see a few strong to severe storms develop Sunday afternoon with a second cold front moving through. Forecast models are pointing to that scenario with CAPE vales once again on the rise into Sunday afternoon.

Sunday CAPE

By about 3 or 4PM models show that second cold front moving into the region. This would be an ideal time for showers and thunderstorms to develop during peak daytime heating.

Future 2

But with that said I’m still a bit skeptical based on the fact that we may not clear out a whole lot from Saturday night’s storms that roll through. The details for Sunday’s severe weather chance is still a bit foggy, but once we see how storms play out Saturday night we should be able to paint a better picture of what could happen on Sunday.

We’ll be watching this weekend! I’ll have all the latest tonight at 10 and 11 and Allison will be in on Saturday for further coverage!

ALSO! This weekend would be a GREAT time to have our new weather app! It’s free, check it out. I use it all the time to check the latest radar and track storms when I’m away from my desk!

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Have a great weekend everyone!

-Kyle

 

A Very Short Lived Warm Up!

Believe it or not, we have yet to hit 90 degrees here in Lima a SINGLE time so far this July! That could be changing tomorrow, but if we don’t get there on Tuesday, the chances are looking slim for the remainder of the month. Not only will it be hot on Tuesday, but it will also be very humid with dew point temperatures expected to reach up into the low 70’s during the day! That would give us possible heat indices approaching the 95 to 100 degree mark during the afternoon and early evening. Here are a look at the predicted dew points by late tomorrow afternoon.

Future Dew Points

As I mentioned earlier, if we don’t hit 90 on Tuesday, it’s possible we may go the entire month of July without reaching the milestone! A strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning that will drop our temperatures 10 to 15 degrees by the end of the week!

The front won’t begin to affect the region until after sunset on Tuesday, and even then, we’ll probably just see an increase in clouds as it approaches. By Tuesday evening at 11 PM the cold front will be well off to our NW.

Future 1

Since the front is moving through overnight I’m not concerned about severe weather. We’ll probably hear some thunder late Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning though.

Future 2

By early afternoon on Wednesday the cold front will likely be through and to the south and east of us. This should keep our best rain chance focused through the early afternoon on Wednesday with clearing possible late in the day.

Future 3

I’m not holding my breath on this front either as far as rainfall is concerned. Forecast models are generally showing less than a quarter of an inch by the end of the day on Wednesday.

Kyle Future Rainfall

Stay cool tomorrow everyone!

-Kyle

Severe Storms Today But Better Weather Ahead!

Today we had a first for 2014 here in West Central Ohio. The National Weather Service issued their very first tornado warning here in the viewing area of the year. The warning came with an early morning thunderstorm over Shelby and Southern Auglaize County that was exhibiting strong signs of rotation. This storm put down several tree limbs near Fort Loramie, but thankfully didn’t do any other damage and likely did not produce a tornado.

Early Radar

This cluster of thunderstorms eventually grew into a MUCH larger line of severe storms that put down (as of this writing) Three confirmed tornadoes in Northeast Ohio including TWO confirmed tornadoes in Medina County and one in Mahoning County. Here was a look at the line around 2PM Tuesday afternoon.

Midday Radar

Furthermore, this line continued to race across Pennsylvania and ultimately towards the New York City area with severe thunderstorm warnings practically along the ENTIRE line, over 400 miles long!

Late Radar

THE GOOD NEWS is that we’ll really calm down for the second half of the week with much calmer and comfortable weather. A big reason for this is thanks to lower dew points that are expected to settle in on Wednesday.

Future Dew Points

This is a big improvement from our 70 degree plus dew points from Monday!

High pressure will accompany the cooler readings over the next few days keeping conditions calm through the end of the workweek.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

-Kyle