Storms NOT Snow Possible Tuesday Night

 

2/1/16

Groundhog Day will bring the chance for severe storms to part of the Ohio Valley but there is not a lot of confidence that those storms will make it as far north as West Central Ohio. One thing is for sure though, after another warm up on Tuesday, we’ll see some very gusty wind, rain and maybe even some thunder before the days end.

Here is the set up with a strong cold front lifting through the mid-west. The front will draw up a good amount of moisture out of the Gulf, but will probably struggle to pull it into most of Ohio during the daylight hours. By 7 PM Tuesday the area I have circled will be the area to watch for severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.

Future Tuesday Evening

This lines up very well with the National Weather Service’s outlook for Tuesday.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Once the warm front in the image above lifts to our north we will probably feel temperatures jump into the mid to upper 50’s late Tuesday evening.

Future Temperatures

These warmer temperatures will also be accompanied by some of the increased moisture I talked about earlier, but the timing won’t be very good for thunderstorm development being night-time. Nonetheless, some strong wind could accompany rain that moves in late Tuesday evening with wind gusts potentially over 40 mph.

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

In an effort not to drag this one out I’ll end this post by saying that there is a very low threat for strong thunderstorms here Tuesday evening. Isolated wind gusts over 40 mph will certainly be possible, but the overall threat is something I am not concerned with.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

With the rain moving in tomorrow please make sure to stay updated with our weather app!

New App

-Kyle

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Partial Solar Eclipse Thursday!

A partial solar eclipse will be seen on Thursday for much of the United States, including West Central Ohio. The eclipse will begin around 5:45 in the evening and will actually be in progress while the sun sets.

Solar Eclipse Graphic

It’s important to remember to NEVER look directly at the sun. Fortunately there are other ways to see this phenomena and not risk damaging your eyes by staring directly at our nearest star. Here is a good link from NASA on how to view the eclipse.

Here is another good link to the Slooh Community Observatory. They will be live broadcasting the eclipse tomorrow evening!

-Kyle

 

 

Could We Be The First To See A Brand New Meteor Shower Friday Night?

Meteor showers are not all that uncommon to see in the night sky, as a matter of fact there are a handful of them that we can always count on seeing ever year as comets traveling through outer space pass near the earth’s orbit. But on Friday night we may witness a never before seen meteor shower thanks to a recently discovered comet!

According to NASA, the Comet 209P/LINEAR was discovered back in February of 2004 by the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research project, a cooperative effort of NASA, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory, and the US Air Force.  It is a relatively dim comet that dips inside the orbit of Earth once every five years as it loops around the sun.

Two years ago, meteor experts Esko Lyytinen of Finland and Peter Jenniskens at NASA Ames Research Center announced that Earth was due for an encounter with debris from Comet 209P/LINEAR.  Streams of dust ejected by the comet mainly back in the 1800s would cross Earth’s orbit on May 24, 2014.  The result, they said, could be a significant meteor outburst.

According to The head of NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office, Dr. Bill Cooke, he expects these meteors to radiate from a point in Camelopardalis, also known as ‘the giraffe’, a faint constellation near the North Star.

The meteor shower Friday night is expected to peak between 2 and 4 AM, we’re going to have a clear night so it will definitely be worth checking out. All we have to do is look North towards the North Star! The last time this comet interacted with the earth like this was back in the 1800’s when it passed through the comet’s debris stream, so since there is no record of what it was like there is a chance that it could either be a spectacular shower with over 200 meteors per hour or a complete dud.

Here is a great informational video from NASA about the potential meteor shower!

I’ll be watching! We could be seeing history!

-Kyle

 

Snow And Another Cold Blast Headed Our Way!

We’re headed back into the bitter cold of winter! BUT, let me say right off the bat, it will NOT be as cold as what we experienced 2 weeks ago!

Before we get to the cold we will have to go through another round of light snow here in West Central Ohio. A cold front will drop out of the north overnight and will interact with an area of low pressure moving through the region. As of about 8:30PM Monday evening, radar shows the cold front and snow beginning to push south.

Reg Radar

Snow will begin to fall int he region by about 2 or 3AM. Here is a look at Futurecast around 6AM Tuesday morning.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

The snow should be out of here by about 10AM as the cold front continues to move further south. All in all, about 1 to 2 inches of new snow will be on the ground here in West Central Ohio. The map below shows new snow by noon on Tuesday.

GFS Future Snow

Now on to the cold. After this bout with light snow another bitter cold blast of air will follow. Average lows for this time of year are in the low 30’s and it looks like the remainder of the month of January will be well below average. The remainder of the week will be filled with highs only in the teens with overnight lows in the single digits and even below zero a few nights. Wind chills will also fall into the 10 to 20 below zero range! But as I mentioned at the beginning of this post, it will not be as cold as what we experienced two weeks ago! You may hear some refer to it as another “Polar Vortex”, I simply call it COLD and welcome to winter in Ohio! I personally believe it’s just not something we are used to recently because our last two winters have been so mild.

With all that said, these below average temperatures will last through the end of the month, at least! Here is the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the National Weather Service.

Climate 6-10

So if you’re not a fan of sub-freezing temperatures, you may have to wait a while! It looks as if this next cold snap could last into the beginning of February. I’ll be sure to keep you updated!

-Kyle

 

Snow And Cold For 2014!

Happy New Year’s Eve everyone! We woke up to about a half-inch of snow on the ground here in Lima this morning, but most of the day so far has been sunny and VERY chilly! Over the next 24 to 36 hours, two more rounds of snow are expected here in West Central Ohio. The first round of snow will move in tonight with snow developing along a warm front just to our South here in West Central Ohio. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Northern Half of the viewing area in anticipation of the snow.

CWA Watch

This snow will mostly stay focused NORTH of Route 30 as it moves in from the West by Midnight. Here is a look at Futurecast by 3 AM Wednesday morning. So if you’re headed out this New Year’s Eve, especially North of Route 30, please watch for slippery roads in the region.

WED 3 AM

During the day on Wednesday the story will be similar, I DON’T expect much snow to fall South of Route 30. As you can see, by early Wednesday evening, the snow is still focused North of Lima and Route 30.

WED 6 PM

For round ONE of the snow, this is what I expect to fall tonight through Wednesday evening. It’s not going to be very much, if any at all!

Kyle Snow Totals

For most of us in West Central Ohio, our accumulating snow will not arrive until late Wednesday into Wednesday night. An area of low pressure will move in out of the West and track just to our South during this timeframe. The low will pull in some very cold air out of the North and begin to overspread snow into the region. Futurecast shows this picture shortly after midnight early Thursday morning.

THU 3 AM

The heaviest snow in the viewing area will fall Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday. By 10 AM Thursday morning here is a look at Futurecast.

THU 10 AM

For round two of the snow, this is what I expect Wednesday night through Thursday.

Kyle Snow Totals 2

Once the snow comes to an end by Thursday afternoon, we’ll be left with some bone chilling temperatures into the single digits Thursday night! Friday’s highs will only top out around 15 or 16 degrees as well. So please, travel safe this New Year Holiday! Happy New Year everyone, I hope everyone has a GREAT 2014!

-Kyle

You Can follow me on Twitter here  KyleAdamsWX

No Snowstorm This Weekend, Just Rain, Potentially LOTS Of Rain!

Earlier this week rumors were swirling around the internet of a possible EPIC snowstorm affecting parts of Ohio into this upcoming weekend. Again, I can’t be more clear, any posts you were seeing about this were based on VERY LITTLE facts but simply there to build hype and gain popularity through social media, bottom line. These posts were based on ONE forecast model almost a WEEK ahead of time! Now that things have played out a bit more, there has been a trend from forecast models over the past few days showing much warmer air filtering in to West Central Ohio. This means RAIN not snow for the upcoming weekend, some of it could be potentially heavy.

Two major forecast models, the European and the GFS models have been CONSISTENTLY showing some potentially HEAVY rain over the region now for the past couple of days, this has given me confidence to write this post! Basically what will happen is that a cold front will be slow to approach the region on Friday into Saturday. This front will be the dividing line of some pretty warm/moist air and some much colder Canadian air to the North.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

As of now it looks as if West Central Ohio will be on the WARM side of this front through the weekend. A couple of low pressure systems will develop out of the South and move Northeast up and along this front on Saturday and Sunday with the majority of the energy affecting us Saturday night and Sunday. I expect lighter rain to fall Friday and most of the day Saturday. The European model  shows a swath of VERY heavy rainfall moving into the region Saturday night. ITS IMPORTANT to note where the RAIN/SNOW line is on these next few graphics. It’s the dashed blue line, basically this is shows anything SOUTH of this line will be rain and anything NORTH will be a potential wintry mix or just all snow. You can see we are well South of this line, that means rain for us.

ECMWF Rain

The GFS model paints a similar picture, agreement in weather models and consistency only adds to confidence in a forecast. The RAIN/SNOW line is still well North of the region and this particular model has a swath of heavy rain Saturday night (possibly 1-2 inches) moving through.

GFS Rain

With the possibility of several inches of rain (the heaviest coming Saturday night and Sunday morning) AND the snow that will melt in the region thanks to the rain and warmer temperatures, we could be looking at a flood threat in the region by Sunday evening. This is something that will be watched VERY closely as we near the end of the week. Sadly, this does not paint a very good picture for a white Christmas 😦 I’ll be sure to keep you updated as we near the weekend!

-Kyle

Updated Snowfall Forecast For West Central Ohio!

After studying all of the latest forecast models today, it is clear that the anticipated Winter Storm has shifted its track further North. What does that mean for us? More snow! Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings have been issued this afternoon by the National Weather Service in anticipation…..

Winter Weather Advisories

This storm will come in TWO waves. The first will move through late tonight/early Friday morning with a mix mainly of sleet and snow which will accumulate in the region.

Late Thursday Snow

We’ll get a BRIEF break from the winter weather early Friday morning before another round of snow moves in late morning into the afternoon hours.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

Because of the track further North, I have bumped up snow totals for all of us here in West Central Ohio. It appears that the Lima area will be right in a transition zone between a 2 to 4 inch swath of snow and a 3 to 5 inch swath of snow.

Kyle Snow Totals

If you have been keeping up on my posts, you can see how Winter weather can change very quickly! It’s always a challenge, especially here in Ohio! Be sure to catch all the latest tonight on Your News Now at 5 and 6!

-Kyle

End Of Summer Storms Friday

We will welcome the Fall season on Sunday at 4:44PM but we’ll have one more chance for strong to severe storms on Friday before the Summer season comes to an end. A cold front will push into a modestly warm and moist air-mass on Friday here in West Central Ohio sparking off showers and thunderstorms that could produce some damaging wind. All day Thursday I have been watching that very cold front which is currently sitting over the midwest.

Severe thunderstorms have formed along the cold front on Thursday in the Midwest

Severe thunderstorms have formed along the cold front on Thursday in the Midwest

The storms along this front will weaken as they move East likely giving us some cloud cover for the first half of the day on Friday and possibly a scattered shower or thunderstorm. The question is whether or not we can see some good clearing/sunshine by the afternoon hours that will allow our temperatures to warm well into the 80’s before the actual front passes through. If we can, the atmosphere over the region should be unsettled enough to warrant a low to moderate damaging wind threat with any storms that develop along the front into the afternoon and evening hours.

As of now the National Weather Service has all of West Central Ohio under a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Slight risk area with damaging wind the biggest threat tomorrow afternoon/evening

Slight risk area with damaging wind the biggest threat tomorrow afternoon/evening

Forecast models show a line of showers and thunderstorms over the region by the evening hours (5 to 10 PM timeframe.)

Showers and t-storms are a good bet tomorrow evening

Showers and t-storms are a good bet Friday evening

Overall, the severe threat is pretty modest with damaging wind being my biggest concern. Flooding is also a bit of a concern due to the fact that storms will likely be slow-moving and capable of dumping rainfall amounts over an inch in a short amount of time. But since we have been so dry lately, a widespread flooding event isn’t expected.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

 

My BIGGEST concern is that there will be a good deal of lightning tomorrow evening! So if you’re headed to a football game, be aware that storms are a very good possibility and please keep an eye to the sky and pay attention to all of our latest forecasts throughout the day on Friday.

-Kyle

 

 

Wednesday Night Tornadoes And Damaging Wind In West Central Ohio

Small tornadoes and damaging wind ripped through West Central Ohio late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Initially during the evening hours, storms stayed mainly North of West Central Ohio with most of the activity in Northern Indiana and extreme NW Ohio. Eventually by about 10:30 PM to 11:00 PM these storms began to merge into a line of storms that you can see here on radar just after 11 PM.

1112 Radar

As the main line of storms began to push into West Central Ohio shortly after 11 they began to strengthen as they took on more of a linear shape. Not too long after the storms formed a solid line they began to show classic signs of a “bow echo” which is a dead giveaway that damaging winds are good possibility. Here was the line of storms shortly after midnight moving directly through West Central Ohio. I’ve highlighted the leading edge of storms to show the bow, or “backwards C” as I like to call it.

1210

There were numerous reports of wind damage throughout our viewing area along with (as of this writing) three tornadoes that have been classified as EF-0. EF-0 tornadoes are the weakest kind of tornado, but pack a punch of 65 to 85 mph.

Confirmed Tornadoes

The tornadoes that formed along this bow echo were all very short-lived and likely quick spin up storms on the leading edge of the larger storm system. It’s when you get individual storms sometimes called “supercells” that you get stronger, longer lived tornadoes, this wasn’t the case Wednesday night.

Just outside of New Knoxville on 219, an EF-0 tornado did some serious damage to this barn. (Picture by Larry Niemeyer)

New Knoxville EF-0

Along with the tornadoes, we dealt with straight line winds upwards of 60 miles per hour through the night, strong enough to be equal to a low end EF-0.

Straight line winds in Wapakoneta took out this Bob Evans sign just to the East of the city.

Bob Evans Wapak

These are just a few of the many damage reports from the storms. All in all, there were 23 reports of tornadoes and 251 wind reports over the life of the storm as it moved from the Chicago area and then eventually through Ohio.

Wind Reports

Thankfully we’re in for a calm end to the week here in West Central Ohio with cooler temperatures and sunshine into Friday!

-Kyle

Severe Weather Expected Late Today And Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region this afternoon and into the overnight hours with damaging wind being the biggest concern. Hail, heavy rain and even isolated tornadoes are possible as well. The NWS has West Central Ohio right on the Eastern edge of a “high risk” area for severe weather. High risk zones are reserved for very high confidence in severe weather and rarely issued. Again, we are not right in the middle of the high risk area, we are right on the edge of it with most of West Central Ohio in a moderate risk, a little bit of a silver lining…..

high

Late this afternoon and evening, thunderstorms will develop along a warm front draped across West Central Ohio. These storms will have to be watched as a few of them could become severe from about 6 PM to 10 PM. But the timeframe I am still most concerned with is late this evening into Thursday morning from about 11 PM to 2 AM. It’s during this time frame that an area of low pressure will move towards Northern Indiana and NW Ohio into a very primed environment for severe weather. Storms are expected to develop into Illinois and Northern Indiana then move towards us into Thursday morning. CAPE values of over 3,000 j/jk will be in place late this evening thanks to a very warm/moist air-mass in place. Here is a look at the CAPE values around 9 PM tonight.

Tonight CAPE

With values like this in place any storms that form into Illinois and Indiana should have no problem sustaining themselves. The good news is that we should be able to see these storms coming from miles away as they develop a couple states over to our West and move towards us in the form of a severe squall line.

Another important ingredient in place will be upper level winds, strong winds are forecasted above the surface. These strong winds higher up in the atmosphere help to add needed lift to keep storms going into the overnight hours.

The RPM, a short term model that has been very consistent over the last 24 hours continues to show a severe squall line of storms moving through the region around the midnight hour.

RPM Tonight

As of now storms into Thursday morning are expected to form a squall line capable of destructive winds. Since the worst of the storms are expected to come into the overnight hours, PLEASE take the proper precautions now to make sure you’re prepared. It will be a busy day for sure!

-Kyle