Wednesday Night Severe Weather Risk

6/21/16

Conditions are coming together for a widespread severe weather outbreak across the Great Lakes Region Wednesday evening into Wednesday night that could impact NW Ohio with widespread high wind. As of now here are the details of what I am expecting to develop but also remember that this will likely be adjusted a bit over the next 24 hours as new data comes in.

As of now, The National Weather Service has placed NW Ohio under a rare “Moderate Risk” for severe weather for Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK WIDE

A closer look at the region.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Notice that West Central Ohio is right on the edge of the higher risk area, that is because this anticipated Mesoscale Convective System, or, “MCS” will probably develop somewhere over Northern Illinois Wednesday evening and track SE toward Ohio into the overnight hours. An MCS is a large and organized area of thunderstorms that typically persists for several hours. They usually congeal or develop into a well-defined bow echo that can bring widespread wind damage to a region. Sometimes MCS’s can be classified as a Derecho, but that doesn’t happen until AFTER the storm has ended based on how widespread and long-lived the wind damage is. As of now, I don’t feel comfortable saying “possible Derecho” simply because we won’t know until after any damage is assessed.

Here is the set up for the system Wednesday evening. A strengthening area of low pressure will pull a warm front north up into Northern Illinois, Indiana, and NW Ohio late Wednesday evening. This will all develop in a very moist and unstable environment just to the south of the warm front. The area where the potential MCS will develop will likely lie right near the “Triple Point”, or in other words, in the region by the low, cold front, and warm front.

Future Late

It’s important to note here that today’s weather forecast models typically have a VERY hard time forecasting exactly where an MCS will develop. So honestly, it won’t be until the system develops Wednesday evening that we’ll have a much better idea of where it will track. So for now I’m going to assume that it will track along the warm front which will extend into Western Ohio.

Very high wind shear values will be present along the warm front that will allow for this system to maintain most of its strength into the overnight hours as it tracks towards Western Ohio. If there is any silver lining to all of this it is that this system is expected to move through in the 10 PM to 3 AM timeframe, a time not typically best for severe weather. However, I do believe that the wind shear present in the atmosphere will be enough to overcome any loss of daytime heating and help maintain strength.

So here is the bottom line.

High wind will over 60 mph will be very possible with any thunderstorms from about 10 PM to 3 AM Wednesday night. Isolated tornadoes can also spin up along an MCS, but aren’t typically very strong. MCS systems also have the tendency to bring very heavy rain, flooding with this system is definitely a concern as well with over 2 inches of rain possible Wednesday night. Make a plan now to cover or secure anything outdoors Wednesday night and have a plan in place for your family in case warnings are issued. Here is my overall threat outlook.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

I will definitely be watching this very closely and update as new data comes in!

-Kyle

 

 

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Welcome To Mid-Summer! (Sort of…)

5/24/16

Yes I know, we’re still a month away from the official beginning of the summer season but the weather pattern we are going to experience the rest of this week is one more reminiscent of July/August. Basically what we’re dealing with is a VERY slowly moving frontal system that will impact the Plains with several days of possible severe weather. For us, a retreating high pressure system to the south and east will allow a much more humid air mass to build into Ohio.

Set Up

Over the next several days not only will temperatures continue to rise, but so will dew points. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere, the higher the dew point, the more sticky it begins to feel outside. Starting Wednesday, dew points are going to rise and stay in the 60’s through the Memorial Day Weekend.

Future Dew Points

Couple those high dew points with temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday in the low to mid 80’s, and you’re going to have a much more uncomfortable warmth here in West Central Ohio.

Future Temperatures

With the added heat and humidity here in Ohio we’ll have the chance for “pop up” showers and thunderstorms pretty much every day this week and this weekend. By no means will any day be a rain out, and the reason for that is because there really won’t be any real forcing mechanism (cold front, warm front, low pressure system) to bring more organized thunderstorms or rain to the region. The better forcing will remain out west through the weekend, and with the better forcing will come the better chance for severe weather.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

As you can see, I am not expecting “pop up” thunderstorms here in Ohio to be severe. But we could see a few storms over the next 4 or 5 days drop some heavy downpours and small hail. Bottom line is that it’s going to be a “rinse, wash, and repeat” forecast through Memorial Day with highs in the 80’s and isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day!

Have a great night everyone!

-Kyle

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Sunday Snow For West Central Ohio

(1/23/15)

More snow is expected here in West Central Ohio, and you guessed it, it’s going to come from yet another clipper system! The “Alberta Clipper” has been our primary mode of snow delivery so far this winter. Clippers generally are quick movers and usually bring anywhere from a dusting up to around 4 inches of snow. This system won’t move in until Sunday so the beginning of our weekend on Saturday should remain snow-free with the exception of some light flurries into the afternoon and evening hours. Based on today’s forecast guidance, it looks as if Sunday’s clipper will begin to spread snow into West Central Ohio around sunrise or a few hours after.

Future 1

As this clipper dives southeast through the Great Lakes snow will likely pick up in intensity into the early afternoon hours.

Future 2

By late evening this system will likely exit the region leaving just a few flurries possible late in the evening.

Future 3

Again, this is a forecast based off of the data I am looking at today (Friday) as I have stressed before and will continue to stress, forecasts can change, especially when predicting winter weather! For example, based off of Thursdays forecast model guidance here was a look at NOAA’s percentages for 2 or more inches of snow on Sunday. Notice that the chance for 2 or more inches was north of Lima and up into Michigan.

HPC Thursday

Now look at how much that forecast has changed for Sunday’s snow based on Friday’s computer forecast model guidance. Look how much further south the chance for two or more inches of snow shifted in just 24 hours!

HPC Friday 2+

Today’s guidance is also suggesting that this clipper could bring us 4 or more inches of snow on Sunday. But I am not going to jump on that simply because rarely do we see clippers bring snow totals above 4 or 5 inches. But for fun, here is a look at NOAA’s percentages for 4 or more inches of snow on Sunday.

HPC

So with all that said, here is my forecast for snow this coming Sunday in West Central Ohio.

Kyle Snow Totals

Keep in mind that these numbers may change a little bit, but it does look as if accumulating snow is a very good bet!

Remember! You can always keep up on the latest forecasts and radar with our weather app!

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Have a great weekend everyone!

-Kyle

 

 

 

Thursday Night/Friday Severe Weather Update!

We had A LOT of rain today here in West Central Ohio, but the severe weather threat has remained well off to our southwest for the day with tornadoes, high wind and hail all being reported in parts of the Midwest.

A look at radar this evening shows a large area of severe weather in Missouri and Southern Illinois moving to the east.

Night Radar

By midnight these storms are expected to form a well-developed squall line that will general be along and south of a warm front.

Future 1

As this entire system continues to push east, the bulk of the activity is expected to remain south of us here in West Central Ohio. Heavy rain and the potential for severe storms with a damaging wind, hail and isolated tornado threat look as if it will stay just south of West Central Ohio overnight.

Future 2

While a scattered shower/thunderstorm is possible overnight, it doesn’t look as if we’ll deal with severe weather here through the early morning hours on Friday!

The cold front will continue to approach the region by late morning Friday. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along this boundary by early afternoon Friday.

Future 3

Winds will increase ahead of this front here in West Central Ohio during this timeframe. Wind gusts will easily be gusting above 40 mph tomorrow early afternoon and could be higher in any thunderstorms. Because of this we’ll have a slight chance for a strong to severe storm, but the overall threat remains low at this time.

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

The front will clear West Central Ohio by late afternoon, essentially putting any end to storms here in the region.

Future 4

We’ll see more rain too as this all passes through, but nothing compared to what we saw earlier Thursday.

Kyle Future Rainfall

Of course we’ll continue to monitor the situation, but as of now, it looks as if we’ll dodge any real threat for severe weather with this system!

-Kyle

 

 

Thursday Night/Friday Severe Threat In West Central Ohio Is All About Timing!

Let me start off by saying that I do believe that while we do have a chance for severe weather here in West Central Ohio Late Thursday And Friday, our overall threat is still on the low side at this point.

With that said here is how it will unfold and why timing will play a BIG factor.

Here is a look at the frontal positions Thursday evening. The area I have circled is where the best chance for severe weather will be during the day.

 

Future 1

Here is the SPC risk outlook for Thursday

Day 1 Regional

As you can see, the moderate risk area is FAR removed from West Central Ohio. It’s in this region where the best chance for a tornado outbreak will be on Thursday.

The timeframe for our best chance for severe weather here in West Central Ohio won’t arrive until closer to midnight and after Friday morning.

Day 1 local

It’s around this time when the energy from the moderate risk area earlier in the day will reach Ohio. As the storms travel through Illinois and Indiana into the overnight hours they will likely lose some steam. Here is what Futurecast is showing in the midnight to 3 AM time frame when the storms will POTENTIALLY arrive.

Future 2

These storms will be riding along a frontal boundary and will have the potential to produce damaging wind and hail. As of now it appears there is very little threat for the development of an isolated tornado, but honestly, that can NEVER be ruled out in these situations.

Toward daybreak on Friday the cold front will still loom off to our West…..

Future 3

This is where timing will REALLY come into play depending on how quickly the front can make it through West Central Ohio. This front has been showing signs of slowing down in the past couple of model runs, here is why that is important to watch. Here are two scenarios.

If the front can pass through during the late morning/early afternoon hours Friday. This would mean much less of a chance for severe weather. This area of low pressure will be pulling up a good deal of moisture and warmth out ahead of it Friday morning. If the front passes through earlier in the day, it won’t be able to tap into that energy here in West Central Ohio.

If the front passes through during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Then we’ll have a much better chance for a damaging wind/hail threat on Friday. Dew points on Friday will likely reach well into the 50’s before this front moves through.

Future Dew Points

If the front can tap into that moisture AND peak daytime heating with temps in the mid to upper 60’s then we’ll likely deal with a squall line of isolated severe thunderstorms in the 12PM to 4PM timeframe on Friday.

It’s all about the timing of the cold front on Friday! I’ll be watching very closely in the coming days!

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

Heavy Rain And Possible Severe Weather To Begin April!

After a very nice start to the week here in West Central Ohio, April showers will arrive in full force beginning late Wednesday!

The rain will be thanks to a warm front lifting out of the south toward West Central Ohio over the next three days. This front will bring several rounds of rain to the region that will really begin to add up by the time Friday rolls around.

The first round of showers will move through late tonight and early Wednesday morning, this round will be light and out of here by late morning.

Round 1

Round two will arrive late Wednesday afternoon with the potential for heavier rainfall a bit higher, we may even hear some thunder.

Round 2

While we may hear some thunder on Wednesday, the severe weather threat will remain well to the West of us and out into the Plains.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

Round 3 will hit Thursday morning around sunrise, heavy rain with a strong thunderstorm or two is a possibility.

Round 3

It’s when the main area of low pressure approaches Thursday night when we’ll see our best chance for a few severe thunderstorms. As of now this appears to be a low-end risk due to many factors which I’ll go into much more detail later on in this post.

Round 4

All this rain will add up over 2 inches here in the region by the end of the week. Because of this, flooding will be a concern heading into the weekend. Here is a look at how much rain is possible Wednesday through Friday.

Kyle Rain Totals

Going back to the severe weather threat on Thursday. The chance to see a few strong to severe storms doesn’t look like it will arrive until Thursday night as an area of low pressure with this storm system moves in.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

This is still over two days away but based on the data I’m seeing today, our risk here in West Central Ohio appears to be pretty low. Here are a few things I’ll be paying close attention to over the next few days.

1) The main energy from this system will move through Thursday night and early Friday. When you look for severe weather, ideal timing of a system is during the afternoon and evening hours so it can take full advantage of daytime heating. This will not be the case on Thursday or Friday.

2) Will substantial moisture make it far enough north to fuel storms in West Central Ohio? The short answer to this is, yes! Dew point values exceeding 55 degrees will likely be felt here in West Central Ohio Thursday night and Friday morning. Dew points approaching and passing this mark usually can provide enough fuel to power thunderstorms. Here is a look at the probabilities of dew points exceeding 55 degrees late Thursday and Friday.

55+ Dewpoints

 3) Wind Shear. Wind shear is a change in wind speed OR direction with height in the atmosphere. Probabilities for high wind shear values are impressive during the afternoon and evening hours Thursday into Arkansas, Missouri, Southern Illinois, Western Tennessee and Kentucky. Couple that wind shear with high dew points and a cold front and we’ll have an explosive atmosphere for severe weather in that region during the day on Friday.

30+kt Shear Late Thursday

As the system nears West Central Ohio, the high wind shear probabilities will drastically drop overnight Thursday into Friday morning. This is good news if you’re not a fan of severe weather.

Thursday Night Shear 30+ kt

The Bottom Line:

As of now, I’m not too worried about severe weather here in West Central Ohio Thursday night/Friday morning. However, this situation is still evolving and will bear a close watch over the coming days.

Stay connected! I’ll be sure to keep you updated in the coming days.

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

The Winter That Just Won’t Go Away!

Did you enjoy the near 60 degree weather today? Well, enjoy them while you can because colder weather and SNOW is expected later this week!

We’ll see an area of low pressure move just to the south of West Central Ohio late Tuesday into Wednesday that will at first bring some rain that will switch over to snow by the day on Wednesday. Because of this anticipated winter weather, The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Watches for the northern half of the viewing area beginning Wednesday morning.

CWA Watch

You may be asking yourself, why is the watch only for the northern half of the viewing area? We’ll, thanks to temperatures near 60 degrees leading up to Wednesday, there will be a very mild air mass in place that colder air will have to fight through to get to West Central Ohio. Here is a look at the projected warm temperatures in place over the Buckeye State early Wednesday morning. Notice the sharp temperature difference!

Future Temperatures

At first, as the low moves in we will see rain thanks to the warmer temperatures in place. Here is a look at what our Futurecast projects early Wednesday morning around 2 AM.

Future 1

As colder air eventually gets pulled South by this system we will begin to see a transition to snow across northern parts of the viewing area by sunrise Wednesday. Future 2

NOTICE, in our northern counties where the rain will switch over to snow more quickly is where we will see higher snow totals on Wednesday.

By early afternoon Wednesday, most of our counties will be seeing snow.

Future 3

So, how much snow can we expect during the day on Wednesday? With the VERY mild temperatures in place before the storm hits I do think the snow, at first, will have a hard time sticking to the ground Wednesday. Computer models over the last couple of days have been trending this storm further and further north allowing for more rain to fall instead of snow. While computer models are in better agreement today than they were a couple of days ago, we still could see shifts in the track of this system. Here is a look at where some of them stand as of Monday afternoon as far as potential snowfall totals are concerned.

The GFS model shown here.

GFS Future Snow

The European model shown here.

EURO Future Snow

Notice, the GFS and EURO are in pretty good agreement. But I can’t just take into consideration these two. Here is a look at the NAM and the RPM model. Both of which are more short-term models.

The NAM potential snow shown here.

NAM Future Snow

And the RPM shown here.

RPM Future Snow

Both the NAM and RPM are hinting at more rain thanks to warmer temperatures being pulled in. This is definitely something I will watch closely up through Wednesday. As of now, I’m splitting the difference of the four models shown above. Here is a PRELIMINARY look at potential snow totals on Wednesday.

Kyle Snow Totals

With this storm still two days out, these numbers could still be adjusted a bit. I’ll be sure to keep a close eye on it! The good news is that temperatures will jump right back to near 50 degrees by Friday, so any snow that falls won’t be around for long!

-Kyle

For more updates you can follow me on twitter here  https://twitter.com/KyleAdamsWX

Another COLD Shot Of Air Headed Our Way!

Unfortunately this past weekend with temperatures above 40 degrees was just a tease! We’re headed for COLD weather once again here in West Central Ohio with overnight lows possibly falling below zero once again!

The temperature trend is going down, and it will continue that way this week!

The temperature trend is going down, and it will continue that way this week!

Over the next couple of days we’ll begin to see a shift in the jet stream pattern with a big dip (trough) in the jet setting up over the east coast. This will no doubt signal a return to cold!

JETSTREAM

A couple of cold fronts will move through over the next few days, each one bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. The first front will move through tomorrow night, it looks like a few snow showers will be possible with it, but overall accumulations will be less than 1″.

Wednesday 12 AM

Another front will move through early Thursday morning. Again, this front will bring snow showers to the region but accumulations will be light if anything at all. The biggest thing we’ll notice is the COLD! Highs towards the end of the week will struggle to make it into the teens with overnight lows potentially falling below zero!!

Wednesday 11 PM

Beyond that, into next week I am watching the potential for more snow Monday. Forecast models have been hinting at this for a few days and I definitely have my eye on it. But as far as the exact path and if that will affect Ohio is still yet to be seen! There has been a lot of hype on social media, especially Facebook about stuff like this all winter long. All I ask is that you check into your sources for weather online, and know that you can be sure to hear about any potential storms right here. I won’t hype and I won’t steer you wrong.

-Kyle

Snow And Another Cold Blast Headed Our Way!

We’re headed back into the bitter cold of winter! BUT, let me say right off the bat, it will NOT be as cold as what we experienced 2 weeks ago!

Before we get to the cold we will have to go through another round of light snow here in West Central Ohio. A cold front will drop out of the north overnight and will interact with an area of low pressure moving through the region. As of about 8:30PM Monday evening, radar shows the cold front and snow beginning to push south.

Reg Radar

Snow will begin to fall int he region by about 2 or 3AM. Here is a look at Futurecast around 6AM Tuesday morning.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

The snow should be out of here by about 10AM as the cold front continues to move further south. All in all, about 1 to 2 inches of new snow will be on the ground here in West Central Ohio. The map below shows new snow by noon on Tuesday.

GFS Future Snow

Now on to the cold. After this bout with light snow another bitter cold blast of air will follow. Average lows for this time of year are in the low 30’s and it looks like the remainder of the month of January will be well below average. The remainder of the week will be filled with highs only in the teens with overnight lows in the single digits and even below zero a few nights. Wind chills will also fall into the 10 to 20 below zero range! But as I mentioned at the beginning of this post, it will not be as cold as what we experienced two weeks ago! You may hear some refer to it as another “Polar Vortex”, I simply call it COLD and welcome to winter in Ohio! I personally believe it’s just not something we are used to recently because our last two winters have been so mild.

With all that said, these below average temperatures will last through the end of the month, at least! Here is the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the National Weather Service.

Climate 6-10

So if you’re not a fan of sub-freezing temperatures, you may have to wait a while! It looks as if this next cold snap could last into the beginning of February. I’ll be sure to keep you updated!

-Kyle

 

Snow And Cold For 2014!

Happy New Year’s Eve everyone! We woke up to about a half-inch of snow on the ground here in Lima this morning, but most of the day so far has been sunny and VERY chilly! Over the next 24 to 36 hours, two more rounds of snow are expected here in West Central Ohio. The first round of snow will move in tonight with snow developing along a warm front just to our South here in West Central Ohio. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Northern Half of the viewing area in anticipation of the snow.

CWA Watch

This snow will mostly stay focused NORTH of Route 30 as it moves in from the West by Midnight. Here is a look at Futurecast by 3 AM Wednesday morning. So if you’re headed out this New Year’s Eve, especially North of Route 30, please watch for slippery roads in the region.

WED 3 AM

During the day on Wednesday the story will be similar, I DON’T expect much snow to fall South of Route 30. As you can see, by early Wednesday evening, the snow is still focused North of Lima and Route 30.

WED 6 PM

For round ONE of the snow, this is what I expect to fall tonight through Wednesday evening. It’s not going to be very much, if any at all!

Kyle Snow Totals

For most of us in West Central Ohio, our accumulating snow will not arrive until late Wednesday into Wednesday night. An area of low pressure will move in out of the West and track just to our South during this timeframe. The low will pull in some very cold air out of the North and begin to overspread snow into the region. Futurecast shows this picture shortly after midnight early Thursday morning.

THU 3 AM

The heaviest snow in the viewing area will fall Wednesday night into the first half of Thursday. By 10 AM Thursday morning here is a look at Futurecast.

THU 10 AM

For round two of the snow, this is what I expect Wednesday night through Thursday.

Kyle Snow Totals 2

Once the snow comes to an end by Thursday afternoon, we’ll be left with some bone chilling temperatures into the single digits Thursday night! Friday’s highs will only top out around 15 or 16 degrees as well. So please, travel safe this New Year Holiday! Happy New Year everyone, I hope everyone has a GREAT 2014!

-Kyle

You Can follow me on Twitter here  KyleAdamsWX