Accumulating Snow Possible Sunday

1/8/16

The word “snow” seems to have been a lost term thus far here this winter, but over the weekend it looks like we could see some accumulations finally here in West Central Ohio. This snow will be thanks to an area of low pressure moving in out of the southwest on Sunday that will initially bring us rain late Saturday and Saturday night.

Future Wide 2

As the low moves over the state of Ohio it will pull in cooler air behind it switching rain to snow Sunday morning.

Future Wide

Notice in the above graphics that the heaviest snow will likely be over parts of Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan. There is still the chance that this low could shift its track a bit further east, and if that were the case it would bring the potential for some higher snowfall totals with it, something we’re always paying attention to. By Sunday morning around 7 or 8 AM the rain will probably begin to switch over to snow from west to east here in Ohio.

Future Close

I’m not expecting heavy snow, but with off and on snow showers through the day it looks like we could end up seeing around 1″ of snow for most of us here in West Central Ohio. Where some heavier snow showers fall it’s certainly possible to see closer to 2″. Here is my current snowfall forecast as of Friday afternoon.

Kyle Snow Totals

This definitely isn’t the “big one” but without much snowfall so far this season you’ll want to make sure you’re prepared when you head out this Sunday!

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Severe Weather In The Midwest This Wednesday

11/9/15

A strong frontal system will plow through the middle part of the United States on Wednesday bringing a widespread threat for severe weather across America’s heartland. As of today’s forecasts, here is how the set up is looking for Wednesday.

Wed Set Up Day

Several different ingredients for severe weather will be coming together including a strong cold front and VERY active jet stream helping to stir trouble here on the ground. One thing to notice on the above graphic is that this system will have limited moisture (dew-points) to work with. This is typical for this time of year the further north you are but it doesn’t completely rule out the chance for severe weather, even though typically the more moist the air is the better the overall threat for storms.

Here is the current outlook from the National Weather Service for Wednesday’s potential storms.

SEVERE WED

Notice how the set up graphic above correlates with the outlook. The area where the strong jet stream winds, cold front, low pressure and moisture coincide is where the best chance for storms including isolated tornadoes will be Wednesday afternoon and evening.

All of this activity will head our way Wednesday night with the chance for strong storms here in West Central Ohio. The good news for us is that several factors will work against us getting any severe weather. Here is a look at the potential set up by about midnight on Wednesday night.

Wed Night Severe

We’ll still be dealing with a strong jet stream moving in, so that greatly enhances our chance for strong winds to the tune of 40 to 50 mph. But we won’t have barely any moisture to work with and without higher dew points the atmosphere has trouble becoming unstable, and without that instability storms have a hard time developing and maintaining strength. Here is a look at our projected dew points Wednesday night. Notice the higher dew points staying to the south and west of West Central Ohio. Where you find the higher moisture, that’s where you’ll find the better chance for storms Wednesday night.

Wed Night Dew Point

Looking closer at the severe weather outlook, it’s clear that’s where the better chance for severe weather is as well.

SEVERE WED ZOOM

 

Having said that, a very strong jet stream can sometimes make up for a lack of instability, but the fact that all this is trying to come together at night has me pretty confident that we’ll very likely just deal with the chance for gusty winds into Thursday morning.

This is definitely something worth watching over the next day or so, but as I mentioned above, I’m not too concerned as of now. Stay tuned!

Also! Be sure to check out our Weather App! It’s great for radar and active watches and warnings!

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-Kyle

 

Remnants Of Hurricane Patricia Move Into Ohio Tuesday

10/26/15

It was just 3 days ago that the entire meteorological world had their eyes on Hurricane Patricia, a hurricane that will go down in history as the strongest ever recorded by the National Weather Service. After making landfall with winds of 165 mph on Mexico’s western coast on Friday evening, Patricia quickly weakened but the massive amount of moisture with this storm carried on into the United States.

Large Patricia

And as you might have guessed by the title of this blog post, all that moisture is headed our way here in West Central Ohio making for a potentially rainy Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture from this system will slowly push north tonight and Tuesday bringing light rain showers into Northwest Ohio by the early afternoon on Tuesday.

Future 1

Gradually throughout Tuesday evening both rain and wind will begin to pick up. And while neither will be anywhere on the scale of when this system made landfall as a hurricane in Mexico, we are definitely in for our biggest soaker in quite a while after what has been a very dry Fall season. Rain and wind will be the strongest Tuesday night with over an inch of rain possible along with wind gusts around 40 mph possible. Below is the projected radar and wind gusts at 4 AM Wednesday morning.

Future 2

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

Heavy rain Tuesday night will taper off to showers on Wednesday with scattered showers lingering into the afternoon and evening. But it will also continue to be very windy with gusts from 30 to 40 mph into Wednesday night. Here is a look at both the projected radar and wind gusts into late Wednesday afternoon.

Future 3

Winds 3

Needless to say, I think the 24 period beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon will take care of A LOT of leaves on the trees! We might be spending a good deal of time raking this upcoming weekend 🙂 It will also bring us a good amount of rain, very likely 1″ to 2″ TOTAL through Wednesday afternoon. I don’t think this will make for much of a flood threat other than some localized street flooding from leaves clogging storm drains.

Here is a breakdown of everything outlined above.

Patricia Remnants

And remember to use our FREE weather app on your smart phone to keep up with the latest as all this rain moves in!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Heavy Rain/Severe Storms Possible Into Next Week

7/10/15

Just what we here in West Central Ohio need to hear right? As we venture through the weekend we’ll start things off with a partly to mostly sunny day on Saturday but by Sunday the chance for showers and thunderstorms will return.

The same stationary front that has been sitting to our south for the last 3 or 4 days will creep back northward as a warm front for the second half of the weekend. AS OF NOW it’s still up in the air as to how far this warm front will be able to lift north. The further north the front lifts, the better chance we will see for both more heavy rain and severe weather. Here is a look at the position of the front based on the RPM forecast model as of late Sunday. (Keep in mind, that I’m thinking any showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will probably be below severe limits.)

Future 1

This front will be the boundary for a VERY warm and unstable air mass into next week. Due to increased heat and humidity CAPE values have the potential to be very high especially Monday here in West Central Ohio. Forecast models are still divided on how far north the front will make it on Monday. The GFS has the front the furthest north and brings the very unstable air mass into NW Ohio on Monday. Here is a look at the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values into Monday evening. Numbers above 2 or 3 thousand j/kg indicate the potential for an explosive storm environment. Notice much of the region is in the 3 to 4 thousand j/kg range.

GFS CAPE

When you couple that high CAPE with a warm front in the region that definitely catches a meteorologists attention! This scenario for Monday is still 3 days away and is definitely not set in stone, just something to watch over the next 24 to 48 hours to see if it pans out or not.

Here is a look at the NAM forecast model CAPE on Monday. Notice it’s shifted further west and south but still extremely high!

NAM CAPE

Basically the point I’m trying to make is that somewhere in the Southern Great Lakes region will be in line for a severe weather outbreak on Monday. It’s all dependent on where exactly that warm front sets up. You can bet I’ll be watching, especially Monday!

If you haven’t yet, check out our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and any watches/warnings that may be issued!

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-Kyle

 

 

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday With an Active Weather Pattern Ahead

6/9/15

After a couple of stormy days here in West Central Ohio on Sunday and Monday, a dry day today will likely be the last in the region for the remainder of the week. Temperatures and overall mugginess will really climb into Wednesday out ahead of a weak cold front expected to drop in out of the north. Highs on Wednesday have a very good chance to reach into the upper 80’s along with dew points into the upper 60’s that will make for quite the “sticky day” outdoors. Here is a look at projected highs and dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Future Temperatures

Future Dew Points

A warm and humid air mass combined with a weak cold front edging into West Central Ohio Wednesday afternoon will set the stage for thunderstorms to potentially develop during the afternoon/evening hours. As of now West Central Ohio is under a “slight risk” for severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

When I look for severe weather outbreaks I generally look for three things. CAPE, Some sort of trigger and wind shear. In Wednesday’s case, two of these three elements appear to be available.

CAPE- You have probably heard me talk about CAPE before. The acronym stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. CAPE is a large product of temperature and dew point, if the temperatures are high along with dew points (or moisture in the air) CAPE generally rises. With such high temperatures and dew points Wednesday CAPE values across West Central Ohio should easily rise above 2,000 j/kg which is getting moderately high. This would be more than enough potential energy to spark off thunderstorms. Here is a look at CAPE values from both the NAM and GFS Wednesday evening.

GFS CAPE

NAM CAPE

A Trigger: In this case it’s a cold front. A weak cold front will drop in out of the north tomorrow afternoon providing just enough lift necessary to spark off thunderstorms in a very warm and moist environment. Here is a look at the front placement Wednesday afternoon and evening along with showers and storms developing along it.

FUTURE 1

FUTURE 2

Wind Shear: In this case there is VERY little wind shear available with this set up, which is a good thing if you don’t want long-lived severe thunderstorms. Wind shear can be best characterized by a change in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere. Without very good wind shear Wednesday storms will likely be confined to a very small area along the cold front where they can tap into the high CAPE. Because of the lack of wind shear these storms will likely die as quickly as they flare up. It’s the high wind shear that helps to maintain thunderstorms once they develop, and in Wednesday’s case there isn’t much at all.

So what do I think?

I definitely think scattered storms will develop somewhere in NW Ohio late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Once the storms develop they will likely grow very fast due to a pretty unstable atmosphere that’s in place thanks to high CAPE. These storms probably won’t be very long-lived with the window for these storms developing being between 4 to 9 PM. Because of the low wind shear I don’t foresee much of a tornado threat, but there will be the chance for some very gusty winds that could lead to some isolated damage. Hail will also be a possibility, but not so much as the wind in my opinion. Overall it’s a pretty low-end chance for severe weather, but something that I will definitely be keeping an eye on all day Wednesday!

Also! Don’t forget to stay up with the latest radar and warnings with our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

Wednesday Night And Thursday Severe Threat For West Central Ohio

A nearly stationary front has plagued the region all week-long and will eventually lift to the north as a warm front later Wednesday night. We have already felt the presence of this front lifting north with temperatures approaching 70 degrees for much of  West Central Ohio today. As this front continues to shift further north into Thursday morning it’s looking as if we can expect another round of showers and thunderstorms during the 9 AM to 2 PM timeframe

 

Kyle Futurecast Thurs Noon

There is the possibility that few of these storms could turn severe, but the timing of them won’t be that great for a widespread severe weather event due to them moving in during the morning and not being able to take full advantage of daytime heating. If some of these storms do end up becoming severe Thursday morning/early afternoon, the biggest threat would be hail and damaging wind. After this cluster of rain and thunderstorms moves through we’ll likely see another break in the rain into the evening hours as we wait for a strong cold front to approach. This is when we’ll see the best chance for severe weather on Thursday.

Kyle Futurecast Thurs 8pm

As you can see from the picture above we’ll probably see a break in the precipitation on Thursday much like we did on Wednesday into the afternoon. But any storms that can fire later in the day (afternoon and evening) would absolutely have the potential to be severe here in West Central Ohio with damaging wind, hail and even perhaps an isolated tornado possible. Because of this threat a very large area is included in The Storm Prediction Center’s Thursday severe weather outlook. It’s going to be important to be weather aware all day long.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Late in the evening the aforementioned cold front will move into Indiana and Ohio by midnight. Severe thunderstorms will likely develop along the front through Illinois during the late afternoon and eventually track towards Ohio into the overnight hours. Here is a look at our Futurecast around 1 AM as that line of possible storms moves in.

Friday 1 AM

This will definitely have to be watched, any of these storms that can hold together into the overnight hours here in West Central Ohio could easily become severe with damaging wind, hail and perhaps an isolated tornado possible. I will be sure to keep everyone updated, and remember, you can get the latest radar and all the watches and warnings on our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Late Week Severe Weather Threat For West Central Ohio

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been on and off here in West Central Ohio for our Tuesday but will have the potential to be on the stronger side later this week. As of now, our Wednesday will play out much like what we say for Tuesday thanks to a stationary front draped across the region. By late Wednesday evening this front will lift back to the north of West Central Ohio making way for a cold front late Thursday and Thursday night.

Future 1

For Wednesday as this front moves into the Midwest there will be a chance for severe storms to develop. This threat will stay off to our west though with just a VERY SLIGHT chance for strong storms here.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

By Thursday this cold front will begin to shift east, you’ll notice the threat areas shifting too.

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

As you can see from the picture above, West Central Ohio is just on the edge of the yellow slight risk area, this is because the aforementioned cold front will be moving through Thursday night. I’m thinking that at some point during Thursday afternoon and evening thunderstorms will begin to develop in the “enhanced risk” area where they will likely be at their strongest. These storms will then move into Indiana by late evening Thursday and then possibly (if they can hold together) move into West Central Ohio after midnight and into Friday morning. This is something that will definitely have to be watched as any storms make their way east. ‘ll be sure to keep you updated!

If you haven’t yet, be sure to download our weather app to stay up on our latest radar and forecasts!

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-Kyle

A Wet And Potentially Stormy Week Ahead

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend! We have had some very nice and cooperative weather here in Ohio the past few days with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s along with a lot of sunshine! But active weather is expected this upcoming week with several chances for rain, and yes, even the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

The culprit for all the active weather will be a stationary front that will basically slowly meander north and south over Ohio to begin the week.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

By late Monday this front will become the focus of rain and possible thunderstorms thanks to a surge of moisture moving in out of the south and west. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night through about noon on Tuesday and then possibly once again late Tuesday evening as another disturbance moves along the stationary front. It’s important to note that in situations like this when there is a front stalled out across the area temperatures can become very tricky to predict. As of now I’m saying mid 60’s for both Monday and Tuesday, but if this front hangs a little further north for longer than expected, temperatures could easily surge into the low 70’s, especially on Tuesday. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning and then once again late Tuesday evening into Wednesday night. There will be thunderstorms with both rounds of rain, but as of now it looks like they will stay below severe limits.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

There is also the chance that rainfall totals both Monday and Tuesday could easily eclipse 1 inch here in West Central Ohio. Flooding concerns will have to be watched.

Now on to later in the week.

Eventually by late Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned stationary front will lift back north as a warm front and eventually allow for a strong cold front to sweep in from the West. With the warm front lifting to the north a lot of warm and moist air will be in place throughout much of the Midwest. This will set the stage for potential severe weather from Kansas to Indiana Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front moves across the country. This front will be fueled by some increased upper level energy that can be seen by looking at the jet stream. Here is a look at that energy both Wednesday and Thursday. Look for the light to dark blue colors in the first image over the four corners region and then those same colors shifted east over the Midwest in the second image. That is where the upper level energy will best interact with surface level heating and moisture.

Wedn Upper Energy

Thursday Upper Energy

It’s no surprise that where these strong upper level winds are coinciding with surface heating and moisture is where the chance for severe weather will be. Here is a look at where the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for potential severe weather on Wednesday.

Severe Wed

And Then on Thursday with an even better chance for severe weather highlighted by the area shaded in red.

Severe Thu

You have probably noticed that Ohio is NOT in the highlighted area for either Wednesday or Thursday. That doesn’t mean we won’t get any rain or thunderstorms, it just means the best chance for SEVERE thunderstorms will likely stay to our West until late Thursday night and Friday when the cold front will move through. It’s still too early to say exactly when the front will move through, but as of now it looks like that will happen sometime late Thursday night/early Friday morning. If that’s the case, that wouldn’t be a very favorable time for severe weather to develop. You can bet I will be watching this DEVELOPING situation all week-long and keep you updated of any and all changes to the forecast!

Remember to download our weather app too!

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-Kyle

 

 

Thursday Severe Weather Risk For West Central Ohio

We’re in the midst of a nice warm up here in West Central Ohio for our Wednesday with highs today easily surpassing the 60 degree mark with PLENTY of sunshine to go around! But with the warmer temperatures will come a very good chance for rain and thunderstorms. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday, I’m putting emphasis on Thursday afternoon and evening.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

As you can see we are in the “Very Slight” region of this outlook with the better “Slight Risk” area off to our Southwest. This doesn’t mean that we’re completely in the clear as far as severe weather is concerned though, there is still the chance we could see isolated damaging winds and perhaps some small hail late in the day as a cold front moves through.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

As an area of low pressure and warm front move through the region late Thursday morning, we’ll see on and off rain showers into the early afternoon here in West Central Ohio along with isolated thunderstorms.

Future 1

Future 2

This isn’t when I think we’ll see our chance for severe weather though. There will likely be a break in the rain from the early afternoon hours until the evening here in West Central Ohio before the actual cold front moves in by 7 or 8 PM Thursday evening.

Future 3

It’s when the front moves in that we’ll see our chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio, in the 6 PM to 10 PM time frame.

Future 4

There are a couple of reasons the better chance for severe weather will remain off to our southwest Thursday afternoon and evening.

1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday morning will limit our daytime heating with generally cloudy skies expected most of the day. With temperatures expected to warm near 70 degrees, any sunshine we get would really help to de-stabilize the atmosphere. The problem is, I don’t think we’ll see much sunshine so the severity of any storms will be limited.

2) Dew points will probably only make it up into the upper 50’s. Here is a look at the projected dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening. From the GFS model.

GFS Dewpoint

And The NAM.

NAM Dewpoint

Notice the more moisture rich air (higher dew points) is off to our SW. Generally speaking, as a cold front moves through the higher the dew point, the better the chance for thunderstorms and potential severe weather.

So overall what do I think?

I think that our threat for severe weather  is pretty low for late Thursday. Again, I think as the cold front moves through we could see a storm or two that produces severe wind gusts into the 50 to 60 mph range, but those will be few and far between. On and off rain will last through Friday as well with the region probably totaling anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation by the time this system clears out late Friday.

GFS Rainfall

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! And be sure to download our weather app for live radar, video forecasts and severe weather alerts!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Our First Spring Chance For Thunderstorms In West Central Ohio

Even though accumulating snow is falling here in West Central Ohio this evening, temperatures will be quick to rebound here in the region with readings warm enough by Wednesday for potential thunderstorms.

A warm front will lift toward West Central Ohio on Tuesday bringing warmer temperatures and a chance for rain after sunset. Once this front passes north of the area by late in the day Tuesday, we’ll feel temperatures warm into the 40’s and then eventually surge into the 60’s by Wednesday afternoon and evening! An area of low pressure will accompany the warm front on Tuesday and because of this we’ll see our rain chance on the increase after sunset Tuesday and into Tuesday night. A rumble of thunder Tuesday night can’t ruled out, but our better chance for storms will come late Wednesday.

FUTURE

Behind the low pictured above will be another system that will approach during the day on Wednesday. As you can see in the picture below, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front as is moves towards the Great Lakes.

FUTURE 1

There is the potential for a few of these storms to be severe, but mainly to the SOUTH and WEST of us here in Ohio. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Wednesday. For now we’re just in a risk for general thunderstorms here in West Central Ohio. (you might also notice that there are more outlook categories in the Storm Prediction Center’s forecasts, for more on that change please check out their website here )

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

For now, temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 60’s on Wednesday. If those temperatures can reach 70 or possibly higher that outlook will very likely shift further north. I’ll be sure to keep you all updated!

-Kyle

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