Wednesday Afternoon/Evening Severe Threat

Here we are almost to the Christmas holiday and I’m writing a blog post about severe weather and NOT snow! But with VERY warm temperatures expected Wednesday, along with the passing of a cold front, there is a low-end threat for isolated severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Here is what you need to know.

Set up To even see low chances for severe weather reaching up into Northwest Ohio for this time of year is pretty remarkable. Tuesdays outlook from the National Weather Service has West Central Ohio right on the northern edge of that low risk.

Outlook Wide

And a closer look

Outlook Close

The threat for severe weather will be present thanks to unusually warm temperatures in the mid 60’s along with the approach of a frontal system that will draw up a lot of moisture from the Gulf. This front and area of low pressure will have a lot of support from the jet stream which means very high wind shear will be in place, especially late afternoon and evening. The warm temperatures and high moisture will also allow for low but (still significant for this time of year) CAPE values that will allow for just enough instability to produce thunderstorms.  Here is a look at those CAPE values by about 2 PM Wednesday afternoon. They are definitely low, but really any CAPE this time of year is a bonus for potential severe weather.

CAPE

Notice in the picture above that the higher CAPE values are off to the west in Missouri and Southern Illinois. As the day progresses I’ll be watching to see if that area of higher instability can make it this far east. If it does, it appears the best chance for isolated severe storms will be late in the evening as the cold front nears West Central Ohio.

Timing- As of now the window for our storms appears to be between about 3 PM and 11 PM Wednesday. The threat for strong to severe storms will come in two waves, the first being with a prefrontal area of showers and thunderstorms that will take advantage of increasing moisture and temperatures already in the low to mid 60’s.

Prefrontal Activity

The second line of potential thunderstorms will move in between about 7 PM and 11 PM and it’s this line that I think has the better chance for isolated damaging winds, and to a much lesser extent, perhaps an isolated/brief tornado.

Local 2

Summary- My confidence in severe weather Wednesday isn’t very high. There will certainly be high wind shear in the atmosphere along with a small amount of CAPE, but I just have a hard time believing we’ll see much more than some isolated damaging winds this time of year. Between 3 and 11 PM on Wednesday my biggest concern is isolated winds from 50 to 60 mph and to a lesser extent the chance for a brief/isolated tornado.

Severe Outlook

I’ll be sure to keep you updated as the system moves in! In the meantime you can always track any incoming weather on our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

 

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Remnants Of Hurricane Patricia Move Into Ohio Tuesday

10/26/15

It was just 3 days ago that the entire meteorological world had their eyes on Hurricane Patricia, a hurricane that will go down in history as the strongest ever recorded by the National Weather Service. After making landfall with winds of 165 mph on Mexico’s western coast on Friday evening, Patricia quickly weakened but the massive amount of moisture with this storm carried on into the United States.

Large Patricia

And as you might have guessed by the title of this blog post, all that moisture is headed our way here in West Central Ohio making for a potentially rainy Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture from this system will slowly push north tonight and Tuesday bringing light rain showers into Northwest Ohio by the early afternoon on Tuesday.

Future 1

Gradually throughout Tuesday evening both rain and wind will begin to pick up. And while neither will be anywhere on the scale of when this system made landfall as a hurricane in Mexico, we are definitely in for our biggest soaker in quite a while after what has been a very dry Fall season. Rain and wind will be the strongest Tuesday night with over an inch of rain possible along with wind gusts around 40 mph possible. Below is the projected radar and wind gusts at 4 AM Wednesday morning.

Future 2

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

Heavy rain Tuesday night will taper off to showers on Wednesday with scattered showers lingering into the afternoon and evening. But it will also continue to be very windy with gusts from 30 to 40 mph into Wednesday night. Here is a look at both the projected radar and wind gusts into late Wednesday afternoon.

Future 3

Winds 3

Needless to say, I think the 24 period beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon will take care of A LOT of leaves on the trees! We might be spending a good deal of time raking this upcoming weekend 🙂 It will also bring us a good amount of rain, very likely 1″ to 2″ TOTAL through Wednesday afternoon. I don’t think this will make for much of a flood threat other than some localized street flooding from leaves clogging storm drains.

Here is a breakdown of everything outlined above.

Patricia Remnants

And remember to use our FREE weather app on your smart phone to keep up with the latest as all this rain moves in!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Heavy Rain/Severe Storms Possible Into Next Week

7/10/15

Just what we here in West Central Ohio need to hear right? As we venture through the weekend we’ll start things off with a partly to mostly sunny day on Saturday but by Sunday the chance for showers and thunderstorms will return.

The same stationary front that has been sitting to our south for the last 3 or 4 days will creep back northward as a warm front for the second half of the weekend. AS OF NOW it’s still up in the air as to how far this warm front will be able to lift north. The further north the front lifts, the better chance we will see for both more heavy rain and severe weather. Here is a look at the position of the front based on the RPM forecast model as of late Sunday. (Keep in mind, that I’m thinking any showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will probably be below severe limits.)

Future 1

This front will be the boundary for a VERY warm and unstable air mass into next week. Due to increased heat and humidity CAPE values have the potential to be very high especially Monday here in West Central Ohio. Forecast models are still divided on how far north the front will make it on Monday. The GFS has the front the furthest north and brings the very unstable air mass into NW Ohio on Monday. Here is a look at the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values into Monday evening. Numbers above 2 or 3 thousand j/kg indicate the potential for an explosive storm environment. Notice much of the region is in the 3 to 4 thousand j/kg range.

GFS CAPE

When you couple that high CAPE with a warm front in the region that definitely catches a meteorologists attention! This scenario for Monday is still 3 days away and is definitely not set in stone, just something to watch over the next 24 to 48 hours to see if it pans out or not.

Here is a look at the NAM forecast model CAPE on Monday. Notice it’s shifted further west and south but still extremely high!

NAM CAPE

Basically the point I’m trying to make is that somewhere in the Southern Great Lakes region will be in line for a severe weather outbreak on Monday. It’s all dependent on where exactly that warm front sets up. You can bet I’ll be watching, especially Monday!

If you haven’t yet, check out our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and any watches/warnings that may be issued!

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-Kyle

 

 

Severe Thunderstorms Possible Wednesday With an Active Weather Pattern Ahead

6/9/15

After a couple of stormy days here in West Central Ohio on Sunday and Monday, a dry day today will likely be the last in the region for the remainder of the week. Temperatures and overall mugginess will really climb into Wednesday out ahead of a weak cold front expected to drop in out of the north. Highs on Wednesday have a very good chance to reach into the upper 80’s along with dew points into the upper 60’s that will make for quite the “sticky day” outdoors. Here is a look at projected highs and dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Future Temperatures

Future Dew Points

A warm and humid air mass combined with a weak cold front edging into West Central Ohio Wednesday afternoon will set the stage for thunderstorms to potentially develop during the afternoon/evening hours. As of now West Central Ohio is under a “slight risk” for severe weather per the Storm Prediction Center.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

When I look for severe weather outbreaks I generally look for three things. CAPE, Some sort of trigger and wind shear. In Wednesday’s case, two of these three elements appear to be available.

CAPE- You have probably heard me talk about CAPE before. The acronym stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. CAPE is a large product of temperature and dew point, if the temperatures are high along with dew points (or moisture in the air) CAPE generally rises. With such high temperatures and dew points Wednesday CAPE values across West Central Ohio should easily rise above 2,000 j/kg which is getting moderately high. This would be more than enough potential energy to spark off thunderstorms. Here is a look at CAPE values from both the NAM and GFS Wednesday evening.

GFS CAPE

NAM CAPE

A Trigger: In this case it’s a cold front. A weak cold front will drop in out of the north tomorrow afternoon providing just enough lift necessary to spark off thunderstorms in a very warm and moist environment. Here is a look at the front placement Wednesday afternoon and evening along with showers and storms developing along it.

FUTURE 1

FUTURE 2

Wind Shear: In this case there is VERY little wind shear available with this set up, which is a good thing if you don’t want long-lived severe thunderstorms. Wind shear can be best characterized by a change in wind speed or direction with height in the atmosphere. Without very good wind shear Wednesday storms will likely be confined to a very small area along the cold front where they can tap into the high CAPE. Because of the lack of wind shear these storms will likely die as quickly as they flare up. It’s the high wind shear that helps to maintain thunderstorms once they develop, and in Wednesday’s case there isn’t much at all.

So what do I think?

I definitely think scattered storms will develop somewhere in NW Ohio late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Once the storms develop they will likely grow very fast due to a pretty unstable atmosphere that’s in place thanks to high CAPE. These storms probably won’t be very long-lived with the window for these storms developing being between 4 to 9 PM. Because of the low wind shear I don’t foresee much of a tornado threat, but there will be the chance for some very gusty winds that could lead to some isolated damage. Hail will also be a possibility, but not so much as the wind in my opinion. Overall it’s a pretty low-end chance for severe weather, but something that I will definitely be keeping an eye on all day Wednesday!

Also! Don’t forget to stay up with the latest radar and warnings with our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

A Wet And Potentially Stormy Week Ahead

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend! We have had some very nice and cooperative weather here in Ohio the past few days with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s along with a lot of sunshine! But active weather is expected this upcoming week with several chances for rain, and yes, even the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

The culprit for all the active weather will be a stationary front that will basically slowly meander north and south over Ohio to begin the week.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

By late Monday this front will become the focus of rain and possible thunderstorms thanks to a surge of moisture moving in out of the south and west. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night through about noon on Tuesday and then possibly once again late Tuesday evening as another disturbance moves along the stationary front. It’s important to note that in situations like this when there is a front stalled out across the area temperatures can become very tricky to predict. As of now I’m saying mid 60’s for both Monday and Tuesday, but if this front hangs a little further north for longer than expected, temperatures could easily surge into the low 70’s, especially on Tuesday. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning and then once again late Tuesday evening into Wednesday night. There will be thunderstorms with both rounds of rain, but as of now it looks like they will stay below severe limits.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

There is also the chance that rainfall totals both Monday and Tuesday could easily eclipse 1 inch here in West Central Ohio. Flooding concerns will have to be watched.

Now on to later in the week.

Eventually by late Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned stationary front will lift back north as a warm front and eventually allow for a strong cold front to sweep in from the West. With the warm front lifting to the north a lot of warm and moist air will be in place throughout much of the Midwest. This will set the stage for potential severe weather from Kansas to Indiana Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front moves across the country. This front will be fueled by some increased upper level energy that can be seen by looking at the jet stream. Here is a look at that energy both Wednesday and Thursday. Look for the light to dark blue colors in the first image over the four corners region and then those same colors shifted east over the Midwest in the second image. That is where the upper level energy will best interact with surface level heating and moisture.

Wedn Upper Energy

Thursday Upper Energy

It’s no surprise that where these strong upper level winds are coinciding with surface heating and moisture is where the chance for severe weather will be. Here is a look at where the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for potential severe weather on Wednesday.

Severe Wed

And Then on Thursday with an even better chance for severe weather highlighted by the area shaded in red.

Severe Thu

You have probably noticed that Ohio is NOT in the highlighted area for either Wednesday or Thursday. That doesn’t mean we won’t get any rain or thunderstorms, it just means the best chance for SEVERE thunderstorms will likely stay to our West until late Thursday night and Friday when the cold front will move through. It’s still too early to say exactly when the front will move through, but as of now it looks like that will happen sometime late Thursday night/early Friday morning. If that’s the case, that wouldn’t be a very favorable time for severe weather to develop. You can bet I will be watching this DEVELOPING situation all week-long and keep you updated of any and all changes to the forecast!

Remember to download our weather app too!

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-Kyle

 

 

Thursday Severe Weather Risk For West Central Ohio

We’re in the midst of a nice warm up here in West Central Ohio for our Wednesday with highs today easily surpassing the 60 degree mark with PLENTY of sunshine to go around! But with the warmer temperatures will come a very good chance for rain and thunderstorms. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday, I’m putting emphasis on Thursday afternoon and evening.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

As you can see we are in the “Very Slight” region of this outlook with the better “Slight Risk” area off to our Southwest. This doesn’t mean that we’re completely in the clear as far as severe weather is concerned though, there is still the chance we could see isolated damaging winds and perhaps some small hail late in the day as a cold front moves through.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

As an area of low pressure and warm front move through the region late Thursday morning, we’ll see on and off rain showers into the early afternoon here in West Central Ohio along with isolated thunderstorms.

Future 1

Future 2

This isn’t when I think we’ll see our chance for severe weather though. There will likely be a break in the rain from the early afternoon hours until the evening here in West Central Ohio before the actual cold front moves in by 7 or 8 PM Thursday evening.

Future 3

It’s when the front moves in that we’ll see our chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio, in the 6 PM to 10 PM time frame.

Future 4

There are a couple of reasons the better chance for severe weather will remain off to our southwest Thursday afternoon and evening.

1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday morning will limit our daytime heating with generally cloudy skies expected most of the day. With temperatures expected to warm near 70 degrees, any sunshine we get would really help to de-stabilize the atmosphere. The problem is, I don’t think we’ll see much sunshine so the severity of any storms will be limited.

2) Dew points will probably only make it up into the upper 50’s. Here is a look at the projected dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening. From the GFS model.

GFS Dewpoint

And The NAM.

NAM Dewpoint

Notice the more moisture rich air (higher dew points) is off to our SW. Generally speaking, as a cold front moves through the higher the dew point, the better the chance for thunderstorms and potential severe weather.

So overall what do I think?

I think that our threat for severe weather  is pretty low for late Thursday. Again, I think as the cold front moves through we could see a storm or two that produces severe wind gusts into the 50 to 60 mph range, but those will be few and far between. On and off rain will last through Friday as well with the region probably totaling anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation by the time this system clears out late Friday.

GFS Rainfall

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! And be sure to download our weather app for live radar, video forecasts and severe weather alerts!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Our First Spring Chance For Thunderstorms In West Central Ohio

Even though accumulating snow is falling here in West Central Ohio this evening, temperatures will be quick to rebound here in the region with readings warm enough by Wednesday for potential thunderstorms.

A warm front will lift toward West Central Ohio on Tuesday bringing warmer temperatures and a chance for rain after sunset. Once this front passes north of the area by late in the day Tuesday, we’ll feel temperatures warm into the 40’s and then eventually surge into the 60’s by Wednesday afternoon and evening! An area of low pressure will accompany the warm front on Tuesday and because of this we’ll see our rain chance on the increase after sunset Tuesday and into Tuesday night. A rumble of thunder Tuesday night can’t ruled out, but our better chance for storms will come late Wednesday.

FUTURE

Behind the low pictured above will be another system that will approach during the day on Wednesday. As you can see in the picture below, a line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to accompany the front as is moves towards the Great Lakes.

FUTURE 1

There is the potential for a few of these storms to be severe, but mainly to the SOUTH and WEST of us here in Ohio. Here is a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Wednesday. For now we’re just in a risk for general thunderstorms here in West Central Ohio. (you might also notice that there are more outlook categories in the Storm Prediction Center’s forecasts, for more on that change please check out their website here )

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

For now, temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 60’s on Wednesday. If those temperatures can reach 70 or possibly higher that outlook will very likely shift further north. I’ll be sure to keep you all updated!

-Kyle

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End Of The Week Rain For West Central Ohio

Rain is expected to move back into Ohio for the end of the week and with all the recent snow melt and rain showers from earlier this week many may be concerned about a possible flood threat.

For Friday, rain looks to hold off until mid-afternoon here in West Central Ohio. The rain will arrive thanks to an area of low pressure moving out of the south bringing with it ample moisture out of the Gulf.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

By the noon hour on Friday I wouldn’t be surprised to see light showers moving into our southern counties. By 1 or 2 PM most of the counties in West Central Ohio should be seeing at least light rain showers.

Future 1

Light to moderate rain is expected to continue well into the evening…..

Future 2

The rain should begin to taper off Friday night with just light showers remaining by sunrise Saturday. At this point, the heaviest of the rain will have moved on and off into Eastern Ohio.

Future 3

By 8 AM Saturday morning I don’t think it’s out of the question that most places here in West Central Ohio could see over 1/2″ of rain. It’s looking as if higher totals will be found the further south you go with lighter totals further north in the viewing area through Saturday morning.

Kyle Future Rainfall

So how about the flooding potential?

Do I think there could be some minor flooding in low-lying areas? Yes. Do I think that will be a widespread flooding event with rivers and streams overflowing their banks? No, there just won’t be enough rain! If we stay in the half-inch to inch range that I’m forecasting through Saturday morning rivers and streams will swell a little, but not overflow. Check out some of the PROJECTED height levels of both the Blanchard River in Ottawa and Findlay, two places that usually flood first.

The Blanchard in Findlay is projected to stay BELOW minor flooding levels (11 feet)

Blanchard Findlay

And the Blanchard in Ottawa is also projected to stay BELOW minor flooding levels (23 Feet)

Blanchard At Ottawa

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! But for now it looks as if we can just expect some minor flooding in low-lying areas after the rain moves our early Saturday morning.

-Kyle

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Wintry Mix To Impact Tuesday Morning Commute

3/2/15

I think it’s safe to say that March came in like a lion this year with several inches of snow on Sunday and more wintry weather expected to impact West Central Ohio Tuesday morning!

We’ll see the possibility for all types of wintry weather beginning late tonight with light snow possible by daybreak Tuesday. This snow will eventually switch to a sleet/freezing rain and all rain mix by early afternoon.

Future Wide

First, lets look at the timing of the different types of precipitation here in West Central Ohio Tuesday.

Timing The SNow

At first light snow is expected to fall in the region in the 6 to 10 AM timeframe. By no means will this be heavy snow. Around a half-inch to MAYBE an inch is possible.

RPM Future Snow

Here is a look at the projected radar by 10 AM Tuesday morning as some of the light snow begins to possibly switch to freezing rain

DMA Future Cast And Temps

The window for freezing rain looks to be about 2 or 3 hours in the 10 AM to 1 PM timeframe. Anywhere from a trace to 1/10th of an inch of icing is possible here in West Central Ohio. Even though that doesn’t sound like much it’s still plenty to cause the roads to potentially be very slick during that timeframe.

FUTURE ICE ACCUMULATIONS

We’ll transition over to all rain by the early afternoon hours with temperatures on the rise!

Future 2

It’s looking like the rain on Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night will be on and off and as of now I’m expecting rain totals to be in the .25″ to .50″ range.

Kyle Future Rainfall

Heavier rain will set up Tuesday night just south and east of West Central Ohio where totals will likely approach, and in some cases exceed 1 inch. It’s into Central and Southern Ohio where there will be more of a flood threat, for us here in West Central Ohio I’m only anticipating some minor flooding in rural and low-lying areas.

For all the latest alerts, advisories and latest radar please be sure to download our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

Bitter Cold Followed By A Weekend Snow Potential

2/18/15

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll get straight to the point! It’s time to get ready for more VERY cold weather, and to add insult to injury, more snow could be headed our way this weekend as well.

First, let’s talk about the extent of the cold weather that we’ll feel over the next 48 hours here in West Central Ohio.

Overnight lows Wednesday night will tumble near 0°, and with that, winds will pick up out of the WNW from 10 to 20 miles per hour. That combo means that wind chills into Thursday morning will likely drop into the 15 to 25 below zero range! Here is a look at the projected wind chills by Thursday morning around 7 AM.

Future Wind Chill Local

Wind chill advisories and warnings have also been put into place by the National Weather Service.

CWA Watch-Warning

Wind Chill Advisory V Warning

But don’t think that Wednesday night will be it! Thursday night will be very similar wind chills once again in the 15 to 25 below zero range along with ACTUAL air temperatures falling around 5 below zero. Bundle up these next few nights!

Ok, now on to the potential for snow this upcoming weekend

An area of low pressure is slated to move in from the southwest on Saturday and Sunday, and with this low will come the possibility for all types of precipitation. As I have said before and will continue to say again, this system is still far, far away! That means that it is still WAY to early to say exactly what type of precipitation, how much and when we’ll see it. Being still about 4 days away I can very general with my expectations, and as the system nears this weekend, will become much more specific with what we’ll see.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

So as of now I choose to look at ENSEMBLE forecasts to try to guide me as to where this low will track. An ensemble forecast takes into consideration not just one single model run, but a collection of runs and data that hopefully lead to trends in tracks and precipitation types. Getting caught up in just one model run this far out is pointless because we all know how quickly things can change, especially when it comes to winter weather.

In the above picture I have drawn three potential tracks of this low Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

1) A northwest of Ohio track. This would mean mainly rain due to the fact that the low would be able to pull up warmer air to the east of it here into Ohio. This would mean rain Saturday night through Sunday morning before seeing a brief switch to light snow Sunday afternoon once the low passed northeast and colder air filters back in.

2) A track straight through Ohio. This is actually the track that ensemble forecasts are hinting at. Here is a look at both the GFS and European ensemble forecast track of the low by Sunday morning.

GFS Ensemble

EURO Ensemble

If indeed the low continues to follow this particular ensemble guidance into the weekend, we’ll likely see both rain and snow here in West Central Ohio. Precipitation would probably move in Saturday afternoon as light snow and as the low drew closer would probably switch over to rain as some warmer air was pulled in Saturday evening. Rain would probably continue into the early part of Sunday morning before the low moved northeast and allowed colder air to filter back in, and thus, switching the precipitation back to snow through early Sunday afternoon. Again, it’s WAY to early to say this for sure and definitely way to early to say how much snow we would possibly see!

3) A track south of Ohio. This track means cold air would continue to dominate into the weekend and as the low passed south, would not be able to pull up any warmer air into West Central Ohio. This would be the best case scenario if you are looking for upwards of 4 inches of snow.

I hope this helps to understand a bit at how I look at winter weather forecasting! Again, it’s still really early, but I just don’t want anyone to be caught off guard.

You can always keep up with the latest radar, temperatures and advisories too with our weather app!

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I’ll definitely be keeping you updated through the week!

-Kyle