Wednesday Afternoon/Evening Severe Threat

Here we are almost to the Christmas holiday and I’m writing a blog post about severe weather and NOT snow! But with VERY warm temperatures expected Wednesday, along with the passing of a cold front, there is a low-end threat for isolated severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Here is what you need to know.

Set up To even see low chances for severe weather reaching up into Northwest Ohio for this time of year is pretty remarkable. Tuesdays outlook from the National Weather Service has West Central Ohio right on the northern edge of that low risk.

Outlook Wide

And a closer look

Outlook Close

The threat for severe weather will be present thanks to unusually warm temperatures in the mid 60’s along with the approach of a frontal system that will draw up a lot of moisture from the Gulf. This front and area of low pressure will have a lot of support from the jet stream which means very high wind shear will be in place, especially late afternoon and evening. The warm temperatures and high moisture will also allow for low but (still significant for this time of year) CAPE values that will allow for just enough instability to produce thunderstorms.  Here is a look at those CAPE values by about 2 PM Wednesday afternoon. They are definitely low, but really any CAPE this time of year is a bonus for potential severe weather.

CAPE

Notice in the picture above that the higher CAPE values are off to the west in Missouri and Southern Illinois. As the day progresses I’ll be watching to see if that area of higher instability can make it this far east. If it does, it appears the best chance for isolated severe storms will be late in the evening as the cold front nears West Central Ohio.

Timing- As of now the window for our storms appears to be between about 3 PM and 11 PM Wednesday. The threat for strong to severe storms will come in two waves, the first being with a prefrontal area of showers and thunderstorms that will take advantage of increasing moisture and temperatures already in the low to mid 60’s.

Prefrontal Activity

The second line of potential thunderstorms will move in between about 7 PM and 11 PM and it’s this line that I think has the better chance for isolated damaging winds, and to a much lesser extent, perhaps an isolated/brief tornado.

Local 2

Summary- My confidence in severe weather Wednesday isn’t very high. There will certainly be high wind shear in the atmosphere along with a small amount of CAPE, but I just have a hard time believing we’ll see much more than some isolated damaging winds this time of year. Between 3 and 11 PM on Wednesday my biggest concern is isolated winds from 50 to 60 mph and to a lesser extent the chance for a brief/isolated tornado.

Severe Outlook

I’ll be sure to keep you updated as the system moves in! In the meantime you can always track any incoming weather on our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

 

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Severe Weather In The Midwest This Wednesday

11/9/15

A strong frontal system will plow through the middle part of the United States on Wednesday bringing a widespread threat for severe weather across America’s heartland. As of today’s forecasts, here is how the set up is looking for Wednesday.

Wed Set Up Day

Several different ingredients for severe weather will be coming together including a strong cold front and VERY active jet stream helping to stir trouble here on the ground. One thing to notice on the above graphic is that this system will have limited moisture (dew-points) to work with. This is typical for this time of year the further north you are but it doesn’t completely rule out the chance for severe weather, even though typically the more moist the air is the better the overall threat for storms.

Here is the current outlook from the National Weather Service for Wednesday’s potential storms.

SEVERE WED

Notice how the set up graphic above correlates with the outlook. The area where the strong jet stream winds, cold front, low pressure and moisture coincide is where the best chance for storms including isolated tornadoes will be Wednesday afternoon and evening.

All of this activity will head our way Wednesday night with the chance for strong storms here in West Central Ohio. The good news for us is that several factors will work against us getting any severe weather. Here is a look at the potential set up by about midnight on Wednesday night.

Wed Night Severe

We’ll still be dealing with a strong jet stream moving in, so that greatly enhances our chance for strong winds to the tune of 40 to 50 mph. But we won’t have barely any moisture to work with and without higher dew points the atmosphere has trouble becoming unstable, and without that instability storms have a hard time developing and maintaining strength. Here is a look at our projected dew points Wednesday night. Notice the higher dew points staying to the south and west of West Central Ohio. Where you find the higher moisture, that’s where you’ll find the better chance for storms Wednesday night.

Wed Night Dew Point

Looking closer at the severe weather outlook, it’s clear that’s where the better chance for severe weather is as well.

SEVERE WED ZOOM

 

Having said that, a very strong jet stream can sometimes make up for a lack of instability, but the fact that all this is trying to come together at night has me pretty confident that we’ll very likely just deal with the chance for gusty winds into Thursday morning.

This is definitely something worth watching over the next day or so, but as I mentioned above, I’m not too concerned as of now. Stay tuned!

Also! Be sure to check out our Weather App! It’s great for radar and active watches and warnings!

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-Kyle

 

Late Week Severe Weather Threat For West Central Ohio

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been on and off here in West Central Ohio for our Tuesday but will have the potential to be on the stronger side later this week. As of now, our Wednesday will play out much like what we say for Tuesday thanks to a stationary front draped across the region. By late Wednesday evening this front will lift back to the north of West Central Ohio making way for a cold front late Thursday and Thursday night.

Future 1

For Wednesday as this front moves into the Midwest there will be a chance for severe storms to develop. This threat will stay off to our west though with just a VERY SLIGHT chance for strong storms here.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

By Thursday this cold front will begin to shift east, you’ll notice the threat areas shifting too.

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

As you can see from the picture above, West Central Ohio is just on the edge of the yellow slight risk area, this is because the aforementioned cold front will be moving through Thursday night. I’m thinking that at some point during Thursday afternoon and evening thunderstorms will begin to develop in the “enhanced risk” area where they will likely be at their strongest. These storms will then move into Indiana by late evening Thursday and then possibly (if they can hold together) move into West Central Ohio after midnight and into Friday morning. This is something that will definitely have to be watched as any storms make their way east. ‘ll be sure to keep you updated!

If you haven’t yet, be sure to download our weather app to stay up on our latest radar and forecasts!

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-Kyle

Thursday Severe Weather Risk For West Central Ohio

We’re in the midst of a nice warm up here in West Central Ohio for our Wednesday with highs today easily surpassing the 60 degree mark with PLENTY of sunshine to go around! But with the warmer temperatures will come a very good chance for rain and thunderstorms. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday, I’m putting emphasis on Thursday afternoon and evening.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

As you can see we are in the “Very Slight” region of this outlook with the better “Slight Risk” area off to our Southwest. This doesn’t mean that we’re completely in the clear as far as severe weather is concerned though, there is still the chance we could see isolated damaging winds and perhaps some small hail late in the day as a cold front moves through.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

As an area of low pressure and warm front move through the region late Thursday morning, we’ll see on and off rain showers into the early afternoon here in West Central Ohio along with isolated thunderstorms.

Future 1

Future 2

This isn’t when I think we’ll see our chance for severe weather though. There will likely be a break in the rain from the early afternoon hours until the evening here in West Central Ohio before the actual cold front moves in by 7 or 8 PM Thursday evening.

Future 3

It’s when the front moves in that we’ll see our chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio, in the 6 PM to 10 PM time frame.

Future 4

There are a couple of reasons the better chance for severe weather will remain off to our southwest Thursday afternoon and evening.

1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday morning will limit our daytime heating with generally cloudy skies expected most of the day. With temperatures expected to warm near 70 degrees, any sunshine we get would really help to de-stabilize the atmosphere. The problem is, I don’t think we’ll see much sunshine so the severity of any storms will be limited.

2) Dew points will probably only make it up into the upper 50’s. Here is a look at the projected dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening. From the GFS model.

GFS Dewpoint

And The NAM.

NAM Dewpoint

Notice the more moisture rich air (higher dew points) is off to our SW. Generally speaking, as a cold front moves through the higher the dew point, the better the chance for thunderstorms and potential severe weather.

So overall what do I think?

I think that our threat for severe weather  is pretty low for late Thursday. Again, I think as the cold front moves through we could see a storm or two that produces severe wind gusts into the 50 to 60 mph range, but those will be few and far between. On and off rain will last through Friday as well with the region probably totaling anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation by the time this system clears out late Friday.

GFS Rainfall

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! And be sure to download our weather app for live radar, video forecasts and severe weather alerts!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Severe Storms Possible Late Wednesday For West Central Ohio

9/8/2014

A strong cold front will move through the region late Wednesday bringing the possibility for severe weather including damaging wind and the threat for an isolated tornado.

The set up is one that is definitely showing that we’re nearing the changing of the seasons with a MUCH cooler air mass slated to move into West Central Ohio. The system will really gain steam on Tuesday with severe weather a good possibility through Nebraska, Iowa, Southern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin.

Tuesday Future

The cold front will continue to push east on Wednesday shifting the threat for severe weather into the Southern Great Lakes.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Some unseasonably strong upper level wind support will accompany this system as it moves in late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. If you read this blog you have probably heard me talk about “wind shear” and “CAPE” quite often, both being important contributors to severe weather potential. In Wednesday’s case, there will be pretty high wind shear for this time of year with CAPE values that are still in question. Here’s the set up:

Wind Shear

As the cold front nears on Wednesday evening it will have pretty good upper level wind support to help maintain storms that develop along the front. Most forecast models agree with each other and show wind shear values high enough to warrant severe weather potential here in West Central Ohio. Wind shear is either the change in wind SPEED with height or the change in wind DIRECTION with height in the atmosphere. This change of wind through the atmosphere is crucial to building and maintaining severe thunderstorms. Here is a look at where the highest wind shear will be Wednesday evening, the higher shear values are where the darker colors are in this map.

NAM SHEAR

I also look at very low-level wind shear and the chance for the atmosphere to generate LOW level circulation in thunderstorms, this is called Helicity. Helicity values from the surface up too about 1 kilometer in the sky are moderately high Wednesday evening. This is a main reason we could see an isolated tornado or two somewhere in NW Ohio late Wednesday. While our helicty values are progged to be higher than normal, the highest low-level helicity is probably going to stay to our north closer to the are of low pressure moving through the Northern Great Lakes.

NAM HELICITY

CAPE

We know that good wind shear will be in place along the front as it moves through West Central Ohio Wednesday, but the CAPE is still in question. CAPE, or, Convective Available Potential Energy is the energy in the atmosphere that is used to rapidly develop thunderstorms. Basically,The more sunshine we get on Wednesday= The higher CAPE values we’ll have to fuel potential severe weather. If you can get a lot of instability (high CAPE) AND high wind shear along a strong cold front then look out! Thankfully, our CAPE will probably be on the low side here in West Central Ohio. But that’s still not to say we’ll completely dodge the bullet.

Most forecast models are showing relatively low CAPE late Wednesday including the GFS shown below. Notice in the graphic that the highest CAPE (which is still pretty low) is off into Southern Indiana and Illinois by about 8 PM Wednesday.

GFS CAPE

Here is a look at the NAM model at the same time (this one has been a bit of an outlier)

NAM CAPE

IF, and that’s a BIG if, we can get CAPE values Wednesday afternoon as the NAM is indicating then we have the potential to see a pretty substantial severe weather outbreak for this time of year. Thankfully, as of now, I don’t think that is going to happen. Here’s why:

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing through the midwest into Tuesday night. These storms will weaken and eventually move east towards us here in West Central Ohio. These storms will spread considerable cloudiness over NW Ohio into Wednesday morning/early afternoon.

Future Wednesday Morning

Notice in the above picture that the storms will be racing out ahead of the better forcing and lift along the cold front by Wednesday morning, along with a loss of daytime heating, this will definitely weaken these storms below severe limits. IF we can stay mostly cloudy with remnant showers from Tuesday’s storms on Wednesday, our atmosphere has a good chance at staying pretty stable (Low CAPE). This is definitely what I’ll be watching most as this cold front nears.

As of now, my forecast is calling for low CAPE and thus a lower severe threat late Wednesday. However, with such high shear values in place, it doesn’t take much destabilization to fire up storms. With that in mind the biggest threat is damaging winds in the 6PM to Midnight timeframe Wednesday evening. Because of pretty good wind shear and low-level helicity, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out either. Here is a look at how I think the severe weather threat will break down.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

These are just my initial thoughts right now. We still have two days until these storms arrive so I will be sure to keep up on the latest forecasts and keep you updated! ALSO, if you haven’t yet, please check out our FREE weather app. With live radar and up to date watches and warnings it’s a wonderful tool to have with severe weather approaching.

APP PIC

Stay tuned!

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday Night Severe Weather Threat For West Central Ohio

We’ll see mainly dry conditions for the majority of the day today but later tonight thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of Illinois and Indiana that could potentially impact West Central Ohio overnight tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has NW Ohio under a slight risk for severe storms for later today and tonight. For us here in West Central Ohio, I don’t think we’ll have to worry about any potential storms until late this evening after 10 or 11 PM. Here is a look at the damaging wind probabilities from the SPC. This map shows the percent chance of damaging winds within 25 miles of any point. Notice the higher percentages are into Northern Illinois and Indiana.

Today Wind Outlook

Similarly, this map shows the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point.

Today Tornado Outlook

Let me make this clear, the tornado threat here in NW Ohio is pretty low. Overnight damaging winds are my biggest concern here. And even then, I’m still a little skeptical about that, here’s why:

Short term forecast models are all in pretty good agreement that thunderstorms will begin to fire late this afternoon and evening along a frontal system working through the Great Lakes.

Wedn Morning Fronts

As the system moves near it will create a good deal of instability primarily across Northern Illinois and Indiana later today. This area is where thunderstorms will initiate thanks to that high instability. Lets look at a couple short-term forecast models and where they place the development of thunderstorms late today/overnight…

Here is the HRRR around 1 AM Wednesday morning, notice this model has a few storms trying to make their way into NW Ohio by this time. These storms would be moving Southeast.

HRRR

Here is the 4km NAM. This model doesn’t bring activity into the region until closer to daybreak Wednesday. Again, these storms would be moving SE.

4km Nam

Here is the RPM, this model has storms basically hugging the Ohio/Michigan border. Around 2 AM Wednesday morning.

rpm

Notice that ALL these models keep thunderstorms out of West Central Ohio into the early morning hours Wednesday. The higher chance for severe weather (you can see this in the SPC outlook maps above) are definitely where storms are expected to develop later this evening, this is where they will have the best access to daytime heating and instability. These storms will head our way into the overnight hours, but they will likely be weaker than they were over Northern Illinois and Indiana where they developed. I’ll definitely keep you posted through the evening on this developing situation! You can catch me later this evening at 5 and 6 on Your News Now!

-Kyle

 

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday In West Central Ohio

A quiet severe weather season has come to life over the past few days with several violent tornadoes across parts of the southern United States. On Monday the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center issued a RARE high risk area over parts of Mississippi and Alabama (and for good reason!)

DAY 0 OUTLOOK

The main threat for any severe weather will very likely stay well south and west of West Central Ohio tonight, but the set up for our Tuesday holds a little more promise for any potential storms.

Like Monday, the biggest threat for severe storms including tornadoes will remain well to our south. But that doesn’t mean we should let our guard down here in West Central Ohio.

The SPC has the entire state of Ohio under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather

The SPC has the entire state of Ohio under a “Slight Risk” for severe weather

On Tuesday we’ll see more sunshine here in West Central Ohio that will ultimately lead to MUCH warmer temperatures. A warm front will lift through the region during the morning hours on Tuesday bringing some rain and maybe some thunder before noon. But once the warm front lifts to our North we’ll see some clearing allowing daytime temperatures to warm into the low to mid 70’s!

Tuesday Clearing

Future Temperatures

With the favorable daytime heating, dew-points (moisture) are also expected to be on the rise. By tomorrow afternoon we should see readings in the mid to upper 50’s, this isn’t overly impressive but it should provide enough fuel for potential late afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Tuesday Late Dew Points

There is no question that the better moisture tomorrow will be well to the South of Ohio where a larger chance for severe weather looms. There is still some question to if this moisture will be able to make it this far north, that will play a large role in the severity of thunderstorms.

Upper level wind support for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon is decent, but like the moisture, the best conditions for severe weather will be over the south.

Upper Level Winds

If we weren’t expected to clear out tomorrow afternoon with temps rising into the 70’s I wouldn’t really be worried at all. But since there will be some destabilization of the atmosphere thanks to some sunshine and warmth, tomorrow will require a close watch.

Here is how I see our overall threat for severe weather in West Central Ohio. Keep in mind this is mainly for the late afternoon through evening timeframe. Roughly 4 PM to Midnight Tuesday.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

So what do I think?

Again, this severe set up is on the low-end, my biggest concern would be some isolated damaging winds. An isolated weak tornado can’t be ruled out, but there is no question that the best tornado ingredients will be in place well south of us. Keep an eye to the sky, especially late tomorrow afternoon and evening! I’ll be sure to keep you updated.

-Kyle

 

 

 

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday

It’s been pretty calm for about the last month here in West Central Ohio but a threat for severe weather will return tot he region for Wednesday. The National Weather Service has us under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather during the day Wednesday with the biggest concern being damaging winds.

 DAY 1 OUTLOOK

The reason being is that a cold front is expected to move through late tomorrow afternoon and evening here into West Central Ohio. The timing of the front is favorable for severe weather but a couple of things earlier in the day could bring down our severe chance later in the day……

Short term models are showing a good chance for thunderstorms in between 8 AM and noon Wednesday. This would very much hinder the atmosphere’s ability to destabilize later in the day when the front moves through. Basically the more cloud cover there is, the less of a threat for severe weather there will be. Thunderstorms thrive on daytime heating, and a couple short-term models are showing rain and thunderstorms in the region early on in the day.

Our RPM model shows rain and cloud cover in the region around 8 AM. NOTE the front still well off to the West. It won't move through until later in the day.

Our RPM model shows rain and cloud cover in the region around 8 AM. NOTE the front still well off to the West. It won’t move through until later in the day.

Another short-term model, the HRRR, shows rain and possible thunderstorms as well around 8 or 9 AM.

Wednesday morning could be a damp one, but it may end up saving us from stronger storms later.......

Wednesday morning could be a damp one, but it may end up saving us from stronger storms later…….

Any morning showers and thunderstorms we see will likely affect development later in the afternoon and evening. These storms in the morning will very likely stay below severe limits. If we don’t see rain in the morning and we have a good deal of sunshine our severe chance will be a little higher later in the day when the cold front moves through. Overall, the severe chance is low Wednesday. BUT it is definitely worth watching….As of now here is what I think the biggest threats are Wednesday.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK

Please tune in tonight at 10 and 11, along with tomorrow morning at 6 with Brian for all the latest!

-Kyle