Another Round Of Snow Monday Night

1/11/16

Now we’re into the swing of things! After a couple of inches of snow Sunday morning we’re in for another round of accumulating snow tonight and into Tuesday morning. Our snow tonight will be from a clipper system that will sweep through the Great Lakes.

Clipper Explanation

Snow will begin to move in late this evening around 8 or 9 PM with light to moderate snowfall overnight accumulating around 2 inches by Daybreak Tuesday.

Future Cast Close

Future Cast Close 2

With a dry air mass in place this is very likely going to be a light and fluffy snow that falls tonight. Winds will pick up as the system moves in so that means blowing snow can be expected on Tuesday thanks to the nature of the expected snow. Here is a breakdown of what we can expect out on the roads.

Driving Impacts

I think it’s a pretty good bet that we’ll see around 2 inches of fresh snow by daybreak Tuesday with another inch possible during the day. By Tuesday evening I think most of us will end up with around 2 to 3 inches of snow.

Kyle Snow Totals

I am not a school administrator, but I would bet that you can expect at least a 2 hour delay on Tuesday along with a good possibility of an outright closure for the day because of blowing snow and eventual wind chills below zero into the afternoon. On a scale of 1 to 10 I would rank this system at about a 6 mainly for the bad timing around the Tuesday morning commute. Have that shovel ready Tuesday!

Snow Meter Kyle

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Accumulating Snow Possible Sunday

1/8/16

The word “snow” seems to have been a lost term thus far here this winter, but over the weekend it looks like we could see some accumulations finally here in West Central Ohio. This snow will be thanks to an area of low pressure moving in out of the southwest on Sunday that will initially bring us rain late Saturday and Saturday night.

Future Wide 2

As the low moves over the state of Ohio it will pull in cooler air behind it switching rain to snow Sunday morning.

Future Wide

Notice in the above graphics that the heaviest snow will likely be over parts of Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan. There is still the chance that this low could shift its track a bit further east, and if that were the case it would bring the potential for some higher snowfall totals with it, something we’re always paying attention to. By Sunday morning around 7 or 8 AM the rain will probably begin to switch over to snow from west to east here in Ohio.

Future Close

I’m not expecting heavy snow, but with off and on snow showers through the day it looks like we could end up seeing around 1″ of snow for most of us here in West Central Ohio. Where some heavier snow showers fall it’s certainly possible to see closer to 2″. Here is my current snowfall forecast as of Friday afternoon.

Kyle Snow Totals

This definitely isn’t the “big one” but without much snowfall so far this season you’ll want to make sure you’re prepared when you head out this Sunday!

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Wintry Mix To Impact Tuesday Morning Commute

3/2/15

I think it’s safe to say that March came in like a lion this year with several inches of snow on Sunday and more wintry weather expected to impact West Central Ohio Tuesday morning!

We’ll see the possibility for all types of wintry weather beginning late tonight with light snow possible by daybreak Tuesday. This snow will eventually switch to a sleet/freezing rain and all rain mix by early afternoon.

Future Wide

First, lets look at the timing of the different types of precipitation here in West Central Ohio Tuesday.

Timing The SNow

At first light snow is expected to fall in the region in the 6 to 10 AM timeframe. By no means will this be heavy snow. Around a half-inch to MAYBE an inch is possible.

RPM Future Snow

Here is a look at the projected radar by 10 AM Tuesday morning as some of the light snow begins to possibly switch to freezing rain

DMA Future Cast And Temps

The window for freezing rain looks to be about 2 or 3 hours in the 10 AM to 1 PM timeframe. Anywhere from a trace to 1/10th of an inch of icing is possible here in West Central Ohio. Even though that doesn’t sound like much it’s still plenty to cause the roads to potentially be very slick during that timeframe.

FUTURE ICE ACCUMULATIONS

We’ll transition over to all rain by the early afternoon hours with temperatures on the rise!

Future 2

It’s looking like the rain on Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night will be on and off and as of now I’m expecting rain totals to be in the .25″ to .50″ range.

Kyle Future Rainfall

Heavier rain will set up Tuesday night just south and east of West Central Ohio where totals will likely approach, and in some cases exceed 1 inch. It’s into Central and Southern Ohio where there will be more of a flood threat, for us here in West Central Ohio I’m only anticipating some minor flooding in rural and low-lying areas.

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-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

UPDATE On Sunday Snow!

2/27/15

We just can’t catch a break from weekend snow here in West Central Ohio with snow expected to move in on Sunday. Forecast models have been very consistent for the last 3 or 4 days showing this snow potential, and as we near Sunday the track and potential accumulation is becoming more clear.

A warm front lifting out of the south will spark widespread snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning through Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Light snow will probably start falling here by daybreak on Sunday.

Future Wide

Snow will likely pick up in intensity through the day with the heaviest snow expected to fall in the 10 AM to 5 PM time frame.

Future Wide 2

The BIG question with this system will be how far north will warmer temperatures make it? This would limit the snowfall amounts here in West Central Ohio, especially for our southern counties. Here is a closer look at the Futurecast and where that rain/snow line could set up Sunday afternoon. This will have to be monitored very closely over the next 24 hours as it could have a big impact on potential accumulations.

Future Close

The latest guidance by NOAA shows a 70 to 80 percent chance just to the North of Lima to see 4 or more inches of snow. I certainly don’t think it’s out of the question that part of our viewing area could see closer to 5, maybe 6 inches of snow.

HPC

Because of that chance that rain could mix into the snow in some of our southern counties I am keeping accumulations slightly lower in my Friday afternoon snowfall forecast for Sunday.

Kyle Snow Totals 2

Again, this could still change depending on how much warm air is pulled north with this system. I’ll definitely be watching! And remember you can also download our weather app to stay up to date on all the latest watches/warnings, radar and current conditions here in West Central Ohio.

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Have a good weekend everyone!

-Kyle

 

More Cold And More Weekend Snow. What’s New, Right?

We’re now in our 15th day here in Lima where temperatures have been unable to reach the freezing mark (32 degrees). And it looks as if it’s going to get worse before it gets better here in West Central Ohio with sub-zero temperatures expected the next couple of nights.

Overnight lows both tonight and Friday night will very likely fall below zero as a cold area of high pressure settles in. This high will keep our weather calm here in the region, but it will also allow for night-time clearing, especially on Friday night that will let temperatures fall in the -4° to -8° below zero range early Saturday morning.

We’ll begin a slow warm up into Saturday and Sunday, but as we have seen in the past, with warming temperatures comes an increased chance for snow! A warm front will lift out of the south on Sunday bringing a very good chance for snow to end our weekend. Overall, forecast models have been pretty consistent over the last couple of days depicting this scenario, that’s why I’m comfortable talking about accumulation numbers over 3 days before the storm.

Both the GFS and the European forecast models show snow moving in on Sunday. The timing between them is slightly different, but both show the potential for around 3 to 5 inches by early Sunday morning here in West Central Ohio. Again, it’s important to note that forecasts are always a FLUID situation and can change as new data becomes available! This is simply meant to inform and give a heads up, by no means is this my FINAL forecast for Sunday. With that said here is the European model showing snow moving into West Central Ohio by about 7 or 8 AM Sunday morning.

EURO SUNDAY AM

And the European by midnight Sunday night

EURO SUNDAY MIDNIGHT

This model shows about a 12 to 16 hour period on Sunday with the potential for on and off light to moderate snow.

The GFS is similar, it just pushes in the snow a bit later in the day on Sunday. The GFS shows the snow moving in by about 1 PM on Sunday

GFS SUNDAY NOON

And the snow moving out close to daybreak Monday morning.

GFS LATE

Taking a look at NOAA’s percentages on Sunday for 2 OR MORE inches of snow, we can see that the chance for most of West Central Ohio is above 80 percent.

HPC

Again, by no means is this a final forecast! You can count on me to keep you updated over the next couple of days as this potential snow approaches. And again, you can keep up on the latest with our weather app!

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-Kyle

UPDATE On Saturday Snow Potential

2/19/15

In Wednesday’s post here I talked about three different possible tracks of an area of low pressure that will impact Ohio into the weekend. The track of the low is becoming more clear as of today, and it looks as if the low will be tracking south of Ohio. For us, that means a snow event and not a rain/snow mix as I talked about on Wednesday.

So here is a look at that southward trending low as it nears West Central Ohio early Saturday morning.

Future 1

Before I go on, even though most forecast models seem to be converging on this southern track of the low, it could still shift its track! It could continue to shift further south by this time tomorrow, and if that happens I’ll continue to adjust my forecast! What I’m laying out here is what we can expect IF this low maintains its current track as portrayed by forecast models today.

Ok, now that necessary disclaimer is out-of-the-way let’s continue 🙂

Based on Thursday’s data light snow looks to move into West Central Ohio by daybreak Saturday morning beginning as light snow. As the low moves closer we’ll probably see the snow pick up into the afternoon and evening hours.

Future 2

Current trends take most of the snow OUT of West Central Ohio now by midnight Saturday night.

Future 3

With the track of this low appearing to be about 150 to 200 miles south, it’s looking very likely that this will be an all snow event. It would be pretty rare at this point to see a shift in the track of the low that far north in just the next 36 hours to give us a chance for some rain mixed in.

With the snow expected, here is a look at the NOAA percentages for the chance for four or more inches of snow. Most of West Central Ohio is in the 40 to 50 percent range. This is by no means set in stone, but at this point I will go conservative and say most of us stand to see between 2 and 4 inches during the day Saturday.

HPC

Kyle Snow Totals 2

Again, a lot can still change from now until Saturday! I’ll keep you informed!

-Kyle

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Bitter Cold Followed By A Weekend Snow Potential

2/18/15

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I’ll get straight to the point! It’s time to get ready for more VERY cold weather, and to add insult to injury, more snow could be headed our way this weekend as well.

First, let’s talk about the extent of the cold weather that we’ll feel over the next 48 hours here in West Central Ohio.

Overnight lows Wednesday night will tumble near 0°, and with that, winds will pick up out of the WNW from 10 to 20 miles per hour. That combo means that wind chills into Thursday morning will likely drop into the 15 to 25 below zero range! Here is a look at the projected wind chills by Thursday morning around 7 AM.

Future Wind Chill Local

Wind chill advisories and warnings have also been put into place by the National Weather Service.

CWA Watch-Warning

Wind Chill Advisory V Warning

But don’t think that Wednesday night will be it! Thursday night will be very similar wind chills once again in the 15 to 25 below zero range along with ACTUAL air temperatures falling around 5 below zero. Bundle up these next few nights!

Ok, now on to the potential for snow this upcoming weekend

An area of low pressure is slated to move in from the southwest on Saturday and Sunday, and with this low will come the possibility for all types of precipitation. As I have said before and will continue to say again, this system is still far, far away! That means that it is still WAY to early to say exactly what type of precipitation, how much and when we’ll see it. Being still about 4 days away I can very general with my expectations, and as the system nears this weekend, will become much more specific with what we’ll see.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

So as of now I choose to look at ENSEMBLE forecasts to try to guide me as to where this low will track. An ensemble forecast takes into consideration not just one single model run, but a collection of runs and data that hopefully lead to trends in tracks and precipitation types. Getting caught up in just one model run this far out is pointless because we all know how quickly things can change, especially when it comes to winter weather.

In the above picture I have drawn three potential tracks of this low Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

1) A northwest of Ohio track. This would mean mainly rain due to the fact that the low would be able to pull up warmer air to the east of it here into Ohio. This would mean rain Saturday night through Sunday morning before seeing a brief switch to light snow Sunday afternoon once the low passed northeast and colder air filters back in.

2) A track straight through Ohio. This is actually the track that ensemble forecasts are hinting at. Here is a look at both the GFS and European ensemble forecast track of the low by Sunday morning.

GFS Ensemble

EURO Ensemble

If indeed the low continues to follow this particular ensemble guidance into the weekend, we’ll likely see both rain and snow here in West Central Ohio. Precipitation would probably move in Saturday afternoon as light snow and as the low drew closer would probably switch over to rain as some warmer air was pulled in Saturday evening. Rain would probably continue into the early part of Sunday morning before the low moved northeast and allowed colder air to filter back in, and thus, switching the precipitation back to snow through early Sunday afternoon. Again, it’s WAY to early to say this for sure and definitely way to early to say how much snow we would possibly see!

3) A track south of Ohio. This track means cold air would continue to dominate into the weekend and as the low passed south, would not be able to pull up any warmer air into West Central Ohio. This would be the best case scenario if you are looking for upwards of 4 inches of snow.

I hope this helps to understand a bit at how I look at winter weather forecasting! Again, it’s still really early, but I just don’t want anyone to be caught off guard.

You can always keep up with the latest radar, temperatures and advisories too with our weather app!

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I’ll definitely be keeping you updated through the week!

-Kyle

 

The Cold Continues!

2/16/15

Who’s ready for more cold? OK, don’t everyone raise your hands at once! 😉 But seriously, there won’t be much of a break from these recent bitter cold temperatures all week-long here in West Central Ohio. As a matter of fact, it looks like we have at least another 2 nights with BELOW zero temperatures expected. On Tuesday, we’ll be lucky to warm into the 20’s (I know, balmy, right?) Before yet another shot of arctic cold moves in Tuesday night and Wednesday thanks to a cold front moving through.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

With this front will come light snow showers Tuesday afternoon and evening through Wednesday. Thankfully, it’s not looking as if it will be much snow though, maybe a half of an inch to an inch for the period Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

RPM Future Snow

Once the cold front passes through Tuesday evening, the cold will cover a big chunk of the United States through the remainder of the week.

JETSTREAM

Wednesday and Thursday are looking to be the coldest days of the week. Projected lows from both the GFS and European model are below zero for Wednesday night. Not to mention wind chills that will likely once again be in the 10 to 20 below zero range!

GFS Temps

Euro Temps

It looks as if this will be the pattern for the rest of the month of February. The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from NOAA doesn’t give us much hope.

610temp_new

And again you can always keep up on the latest radar, temperatures and advisories using our weather app!

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Stay warm!

-Kyle

 

 

Super Bowl Snow For West Central Ohio

Forecast models have pushed the track of our weekend Winter Storm further north, and for us here in West Central Ohio that means the potential is there for snowfall totals that could exceed 6 inches!

As of now ALL of West Central Ohio will go under a Winter Storm Watch Saturday evening

If you have been keeping up with this blog, I outlined how ensemble forecasts were showing signs of pulling an area of low pressure from the southwest to northeast along and south of the Ohio River. (here is Thursday’s post) Today’s forecasts have pulled the potential track of the low about 100 miles or so further north, and for us that means we’re right in line for POSSIBLE heavy snow on Super Bowl Sunday.

Here is a look at both the GFS and European model and the ensemble forecasted track of the low based on today’s runs.

First the European. Notice the low is tracking right along and just north of the Ohio River. It’s typically about 100 miles or so to the North and West of the low where you can usually expect the heaviest snow amounts in “Panhandle Hook” storms such as this one.

ECMWF

The GFS ensemble is very similar to the European. Both of the above and below pictures are of the placement of the low by about 7 PM Sunday.

GFS

Before I continue, it’s very important to note that both of these ensemble forecasts have been shifting this low further and further north over the past couple of days. So the snowfall totals that I’m about to outline are by no means a “final” forecast. As we have seen just from Thursday to today, there has been quite a change. IF this system continues its northward shift on Saturday, these numbers are likely to be adjusted once again.

With that said, lets look at the timing of this potential snow.

I expect the snow to begin to move in the 3 AM to 7 AM timeframe Sunday morning.

Future 1 i

Based on today’s data, I expect the heaviest snow to fall from late morning through the afternoon hours on Sunday with snow tapering off by the end of the Super Bowl (10ish Sunday evening)

Future 2

OK, lets get to my forecasted snow totals. There is going to be a swath of heavy snow somewhere across West Central Ohio. Check out NOAA’s ensemble forecast showing the percentages for snowfall OVER 6 inches on Sunday.

NEW HPC

With those high percentages across West Central Ohio here is a look at our forecasted snow totals from early Sunday morning through late Sunday evening.

Kyle Snow Totals

Again, this is not a final forecast but guidance as to what to anticipate based on today’s data. I’ll be eagerly waiting for more data to come in as we near Sunday and update these numbers if I need too!

ALSO, you can get the latest watches and warnings along with live radar, video, my blog and much more!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Update On Sunday Snow Potential

(1/29/15)

Forecast models are beginning to show SOME agreement on the potential track of a winter storm across the Eastern U.S. With this potential snow still being nearly 3 days away I just wanted to give a quick update as to what I’m thinking West Central Ohio can expect.

After looking at the data today, ensemble forecasts for both the GFS and the European are beginning to show signals that they are coming into better alignment. You may have heard me refer to ensemble forecasts before, so here is a quick refresher. An ensemble forecast takes into consideration more than one particular model or model run for the day, it blends a gamut of forecasts together and looks for trends. This is important due to the fact that any one single run of a model can be drastically different from the past one, especially when you are talking 3,4 or 5 days out from the actual storm. Showing one snapshot of any model depicting a heavy snow event that isn’t an ensemble far out from the actual storm is usually just speculation and can generally be discredited until a trend starts to show.

OK, with that said, here is a look at both the ensemble forecasts from the GFS and Euro from this morning. First the European showing the storm Late Sunday developing south of us and generally staying South of the Ohio river. That puts the “target area” for snowfall to the north and east of the low.

ECMWF

Take note in the above picture that there looks to be a strong area of high pressure building into the Northern Plains. A strong high like this could have a significant impact on the track of the low, and as of now, I’m thinking could keep that low subdued far enough to our south here in West Central Ohio to keep us out of the area that will see the heaviest snowfall.

Similar to the Euro, here is the GFS ensemble from today.

GFS

The low is in the same general area but isn’t as developed (not as strong) The GFS ensemble from today definitely shows a slightly weaker storm, but again that could still change.

So what am I thinking?

– I have high confidence that we’ll see accumulating snow here in West Central Ohio on Sunday.

– I have low to medium confidence that we’ll see heavy snow upwards of 4 inches over parts of West Central Ohio

Here is the latest from NOAA showing the probabilities for four or more inches of snow on Sunday.

HPC

Bottom Line.

As of now I think West Central Ohio will be right on the northern edge of the heavier snow (accumulations of 4″ or more). In no way am I ready to put specific numbers out there for the region simply because a variation in the track of maybe only 50 to 100 miles would mean a drastically different forecast. For now, I think the heaviest snow will fall from an Indianapolis to Dayton line. As of now, I don’t think this is going to be the “big one” for our winter.

Kyle Snow Totals

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! Remember to download our free weather app for the latest forecasts and radar!

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-Kyle