Storms NOT Snow Possible Tuesday Night

 

2/1/16

Groundhog Day will bring the chance for severe storms to part of the Ohio Valley but there is not a lot of confidence that those storms will make it as far north as West Central Ohio. One thing is for sure though, after another warm up on Tuesday, we’ll see some very gusty wind, rain and maybe even some thunder before the days end.

Here is the set up with a strong cold front lifting through the mid-west. The front will draw up a good amount of moisture out of the Gulf, but will probably struggle to pull it into most of Ohio during the daylight hours. By 7 PM Tuesday the area I have circled will be the area to watch for severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.

Future Tuesday Evening

This lines up very well with the National Weather Service’s outlook for Tuesday.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Once the warm front in the image above lifts to our north we will probably feel temperatures jump into the mid to upper 50’s late Tuesday evening.

Future Temperatures

These warmer temperatures will also be accompanied by some of the increased moisture I talked about earlier, but the timing won’t be very good for thunderstorm development being night-time. Nonetheless, some strong wind could accompany rain that moves in late Tuesday evening with wind gusts potentially over 40 mph.

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

In an effort not to drag this one out I’ll end this post by saying that there is a very low threat for strong thunderstorms here Tuesday evening. Isolated wind gusts over 40 mph will certainly be possible, but the overall threat is something I am not concerned with.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

With the rain moving in tomorrow please make sure to stay updated with our weather app!

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-Kyle

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Another Round Of Snow Monday Night

1/11/16

Now we’re into the swing of things! After a couple of inches of snow Sunday morning we’re in for another round of accumulating snow tonight and into Tuesday morning. Our snow tonight will be from a clipper system that will sweep through the Great Lakes.

Clipper Explanation

Snow will begin to move in late this evening around 8 or 9 PM with light to moderate snowfall overnight accumulating around 2 inches by Daybreak Tuesday.

Future Cast Close

Future Cast Close 2

With a dry air mass in place this is very likely going to be a light and fluffy snow that falls tonight. Winds will pick up as the system moves in so that means blowing snow can be expected on Tuesday thanks to the nature of the expected snow. Here is a breakdown of what we can expect out on the roads.

Driving Impacts

I think it’s a pretty good bet that we’ll see around 2 inches of fresh snow by daybreak Tuesday with another inch possible during the day. By Tuesday evening I think most of us will end up with around 2 to 3 inches of snow.

Kyle Snow Totals

I am not a school administrator, but I would bet that you can expect at least a 2 hour delay on Tuesday along with a good possibility of an outright closure for the day because of blowing snow and eventual wind chills below zero into the afternoon. On a scale of 1 to 10 I would rank this system at about a 6 mainly for the bad timing around the Tuesday morning commute. Have that shovel ready Tuesday!

Snow Meter Kyle

REMEMBER, you can keep up with all the latest on our weather app!

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Accumulating Snow Possible Sunday

1/8/16

The word “snow” seems to have been a lost term thus far here this winter, but over the weekend it looks like we could see some accumulations finally here in West Central Ohio. This snow will be thanks to an area of low pressure moving in out of the southwest on Sunday that will initially bring us rain late Saturday and Saturday night.

Future Wide 2

As the low moves over the state of Ohio it will pull in cooler air behind it switching rain to snow Sunday morning.

Future Wide

Notice in the above graphics that the heaviest snow will likely be over parts of Northern Indiana and Southwest Michigan. There is still the chance that this low could shift its track a bit further east, and if that were the case it would bring the potential for some higher snowfall totals with it, something we’re always paying attention to. By Sunday morning around 7 or 8 AM the rain will probably begin to switch over to snow from west to east here in Ohio.

Future Close

I’m not expecting heavy snow, but with off and on snow showers through the day it looks like we could end up seeing around 1″ of snow for most of us here in West Central Ohio. Where some heavier snow showers fall it’s certainly possible to see closer to 2″. Here is my current snowfall forecast as of Friday afternoon.

Kyle Snow Totals

This definitely isn’t the “big one” but without much snowfall so far this season you’ll want to make sure you’re prepared when you head out this Sunday!

You can also keep up to date on the latest radar and forecasts with our weather app!

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Wednesday Afternoon/Evening Severe Threat

Here we are almost to the Christmas holiday and I’m writing a blog post about severe weather and NOT snow! But with VERY warm temperatures expected Wednesday, along with the passing of a cold front, there is a low-end threat for isolated severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Here is what you need to know.

Set up To even see low chances for severe weather reaching up into Northwest Ohio for this time of year is pretty remarkable. Tuesdays outlook from the National Weather Service has West Central Ohio right on the northern edge of that low risk.

Outlook Wide

And a closer look

Outlook Close

The threat for severe weather will be present thanks to unusually warm temperatures in the mid 60’s along with the approach of a frontal system that will draw up a lot of moisture from the Gulf. This front and area of low pressure will have a lot of support from the jet stream which means very high wind shear will be in place, especially late afternoon and evening. The warm temperatures and high moisture will also allow for low but (still significant for this time of year) CAPE values that will allow for just enough instability to produce thunderstorms.  Here is a look at those CAPE values by about 2 PM Wednesday afternoon. They are definitely low, but really any CAPE this time of year is a bonus for potential severe weather.

CAPE

Notice in the picture above that the higher CAPE values are off to the west in Missouri and Southern Illinois. As the day progresses I’ll be watching to see if that area of higher instability can make it this far east. If it does, it appears the best chance for isolated severe storms will be late in the evening as the cold front nears West Central Ohio.

Timing- As of now the window for our storms appears to be between about 3 PM and 11 PM Wednesday. The threat for strong to severe storms will come in two waves, the first being with a prefrontal area of showers and thunderstorms that will take advantage of increasing moisture and temperatures already in the low to mid 60’s.

Prefrontal Activity

The second line of potential thunderstorms will move in between about 7 PM and 11 PM and it’s this line that I think has the better chance for isolated damaging winds, and to a much lesser extent, perhaps an isolated/brief tornado.

Local 2

Summary- My confidence in severe weather Wednesday isn’t very high. There will certainly be high wind shear in the atmosphere along with a small amount of CAPE, but I just have a hard time believing we’ll see much more than some isolated damaging winds this time of year. Between 3 and 11 PM on Wednesday my biggest concern is isolated winds from 50 to 60 mph and to a lesser extent the chance for a brief/isolated tornado.

Severe Outlook

I’ll be sure to keep you updated as the system moves in! In the meantime you can always track any incoming weather on our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

 

Remnants Of Hurricane Patricia Move Into Ohio Tuesday

10/26/15

It was just 3 days ago that the entire meteorological world had their eyes on Hurricane Patricia, a hurricane that will go down in history as the strongest ever recorded by the National Weather Service. After making landfall with winds of 165 mph on Mexico’s western coast on Friday evening, Patricia quickly weakened but the massive amount of moisture with this storm carried on into the United States.

Large Patricia

And as you might have guessed by the title of this blog post, all that moisture is headed our way here in West Central Ohio making for a potentially rainy Tuesday and Wednesday. Moisture from this system will slowly push north tonight and Tuesday bringing light rain showers into Northwest Ohio by the early afternoon on Tuesday.

Future 1

Gradually throughout Tuesday evening both rain and wind will begin to pick up. And while neither will be anywhere on the scale of when this system made landfall as a hurricane in Mexico, we are definitely in for our biggest soaker in quite a while after what has been a very dry Fall season. Rain and wind will be the strongest Tuesday night with over an inch of rain possible along with wind gusts around 40 mph possible. Below is the projected radar and wind gusts at 4 AM Wednesday morning.

Future 2

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

Heavy rain Tuesday night will taper off to showers on Wednesday with scattered showers lingering into the afternoon and evening. But it will also continue to be very windy with gusts from 30 to 40 mph into Wednesday night. Here is a look at both the projected radar and wind gusts into late Wednesday afternoon.

Future 3

Winds 3

Needless to say, I think the 24 period beginning Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon will take care of A LOT of leaves on the trees! We might be spending a good deal of time raking this upcoming weekend 🙂 It will also bring us a good amount of rain, very likely 1″ to 2″ TOTAL through Wednesday afternoon. I don’t think this will make for much of a flood threat other than some localized street flooding from leaves clogging storm drains.

Here is a breakdown of everything outlined above.

Patricia Remnants

And remember to use our FREE weather app on your smart phone to keep up with the latest as all this rain moves in!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

A Frosty End To The Month Of April?

As we near the end of April, temperatures in the 40’s and 50’s are becoming increasingly unpopular here in West Central Ohio. But that is what we can expect in the coming week as highs will struggle to break 50 degrees for the remainder of the week ahead. As a matter of fact, temperatures are expected to drop near freezing both Wednesday and Thursday night. Here is a look at The anticipated low temperatures Thursday morning.

Future 1

With temperatures that cold this time of year it’s important to protect any sensitive plants. And even though it may seem as if this is late in the season to be seeing frost/freezing conditions, it’s still pretty early based on historical averages.

Last Frost

The bad news is that temperatures look as if they will stay anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees below average through the end of April and into May. Just look at the jet stream pattern by this time next week. The main energy from the jet looks to stay south of Ohio, this keeping the focus for wetter conditions and warmer temperatures well south.

Viewer Photo 5

Here is a look at NOAA’s 8 to 14 day temperature outlook through May 5th confirming that expected pattern. .

814temp_new

Stay warm everyone! And if you haven’t yet, please check out our weather app! It’s a great tool to stay up on all the latest West Central Ohio weather!

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-Kyle

 

 

Wednesday Night And Thursday Severe Threat For West Central Ohio

A nearly stationary front has plagued the region all week-long and will eventually lift to the north as a warm front later Wednesday night. We have already felt the presence of this front lifting north with temperatures approaching 70 degrees for much of  West Central Ohio today. As this front continues to shift further north into Thursday morning it’s looking as if we can expect another round of showers and thunderstorms during the 9 AM to 2 PM timeframe

 

Kyle Futurecast Thurs Noon

There is the possibility that few of these storms could turn severe, but the timing of them won’t be that great for a widespread severe weather event due to them moving in during the morning and not being able to take full advantage of daytime heating. If some of these storms do end up becoming severe Thursday morning/early afternoon, the biggest threat would be hail and damaging wind. After this cluster of rain and thunderstorms moves through we’ll likely see another break in the rain into the evening hours as we wait for a strong cold front to approach. This is when we’ll see the best chance for severe weather on Thursday.

Kyle Futurecast Thurs 8pm

As you can see from the picture above we’ll probably see a break in the precipitation on Thursday much like we did on Wednesday into the afternoon. But any storms that can fire later in the day (afternoon and evening) would absolutely have the potential to be severe here in West Central Ohio with damaging wind, hail and even perhaps an isolated tornado possible. Because of this threat a very large area is included in The Storm Prediction Center’s Thursday severe weather outlook. It’s going to be important to be weather aware all day long.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Late in the evening the aforementioned cold front will move into Indiana and Ohio by midnight. Severe thunderstorms will likely develop along the front through Illinois during the late afternoon and eventually track towards Ohio into the overnight hours. Here is a look at our Futurecast around 1 AM as that line of possible storms moves in.

Friday 1 AM

This will definitely have to be watched, any of these storms that can hold together into the overnight hours here in West Central Ohio could easily become severe with damaging wind, hail and perhaps an isolated tornado possible. I will be sure to keep everyone updated, and remember, you can get the latest radar and all the watches and warnings on our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

Late Week Severe Weather Threat For West Central Ohio

Showers and a few thunderstorms have been on and off here in West Central Ohio for our Tuesday but will have the potential to be on the stronger side later this week. As of now, our Wednesday will play out much like what we say for Tuesday thanks to a stationary front draped across the region. By late Wednesday evening this front will lift back to the north of West Central Ohio making way for a cold front late Thursday and Thursday night.

Future 1

For Wednesday as this front moves into the Midwest there will be a chance for severe storms to develop. This threat will stay off to our west though with just a VERY SLIGHT chance for strong storms here.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

By Thursday this cold front will begin to shift east, you’ll notice the threat areas shifting too.

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

As you can see from the picture above, West Central Ohio is just on the edge of the yellow slight risk area, this is because the aforementioned cold front will be moving through Thursday night. I’m thinking that at some point during Thursday afternoon and evening thunderstorms will begin to develop in the “enhanced risk” area where they will likely be at their strongest. These storms will then move into Indiana by late evening Thursday and then possibly (if they can hold together) move into West Central Ohio after midnight and into Friday morning. This is something that will definitely have to be watched as any storms make their way east. ‘ll be sure to keep you updated!

If you haven’t yet, be sure to download our weather app to stay up on our latest radar and forecasts!

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-Kyle

A Wet And Potentially Stormy Week Ahead

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend! We have had some very nice and cooperative weather here in Ohio the past few days with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s along with a lot of sunshine! But active weather is expected this upcoming week with several chances for rain, and yes, even the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

The culprit for all the active weather will be a stationary front that will basically slowly meander north and south over Ohio to begin the week.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

By late Monday this front will become the focus of rain and possible thunderstorms thanks to a surge of moisture moving in out of the south and west. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night through about noon on Tuesday and then possibly once again late Tuesday evening as another disturbance moves along the stationary front. It’s important to note that in situations like this when there is a front stalled out across the area temperatures can become very tricky to predict. As of now I’m saying mid 60’s for both Monday and Tuesday, but if this front hangs a little further north for longer than expected, temperatures could easily surge into the low 70’s, especially on Tuesday. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning and then once again late Tuesday evening into Wednesday night. There will be thunderstorms with both rounds of rain, but as of now it looks like they will stay below severe limits.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

There is also the chance that rainfall totals both Monday and Tuesday could easily eclipse 1 inch here in West Central Ohio. Flooding concerns will have to be watched.

Now on to later in the week.

Eventually by late Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned stationary front will lift back north as a warm front and eventually allow for a strong cold front to sweep in from the West. With the warm front lifting to the north a lot of warm and moist air will be in place throughout much of the Midwest. This will set the stage for potential severe weather from Kansas to Indiana Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front moves across the country. This front will be fueled by some increased upper level energy that can be seen by looking at the jet stream. Here is a look at that energy both Wednesday and Thursday. Look for the light to dark blue colors in the first image over the four corners region and then those same colors shifted east over the Midwest in the second image. That is where the upper level energy will best interact with surface level heating and moisture.

Wedn Upper Energy

Thursday Upper Energy

It’s no surprise that where these strong upper level winds are coinciding with surface heating and moisture is where the chance for severe weather will be. Here is a look at where the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for potential severe weather on Wednesday.

Severe Wed

And Then on Thursday with an even better chance for severe weather highlighted by the area shaded in red.

Severe Thu

You have probably noticed that Ohio is NOT in the highlighted area for either Wednesday or Thursday. That doesn’t mean we won’t get any rain or thunderstorms, it just means the best chance for SEVERE thunderstorms will likely stay to our West until late Thursday night and Friday when the cold front will move through. It’s still too early to say exactly when the front will move through, but as of now it looks like that will happen sometime late Thursday night/early Friday morning. If that’s the case, that wouldn’t be a very favorable time for severe weather to develop. You can bet I will be watching this DEVELOPING situation all week-long and keep you updated of any and all changes to the forecast!

Remember to download our weather app too!

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-Kyle

 

 

Thursday Severe Weather Risk For West Central Ohio

We’re in the midst of a nice warm up here in West Central Ohio for our Wednesday with highs today easily surpassing the 60 degree mark with PLENTY of sunshine to go around! But with the warmer temperatures will come a very good chance for rain and thunderstorms. Here is the Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Thursday, I’m putting emphasis on Thursday afternoon and evening.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

As you can see we are in the “Very Slight” region of this outlook with the better “Slight Risk” area off to our Southwest. This doesn’t mean that we’re completely in the clear as far as severe weather is concerned though, there is still the chance we could see isolated damaging winds and perhaps some small hail late in the day as a cold front moves through.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

As an area of low pressure and warm front move through the region late Thursday morning, we’ll see on and off rain showers into the early afternoon here in West Central Ohio along with isolated thunderstorms.

Future 1

Future 2

This isn’t when I think we’ll see our chance for severe weather though. There will likely be a break in the rain from the early afternoon hours until the evening here in West Central Ohio before the actual cold front moves in by 7 or 8 PM Thursday evening.

Future 3

It’s when the front moves in that we’ll see our chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio, in the 6 PM to 10 PM time frame.

Future 4

There are a couple of reasons the better chance for severe weather will remain off to our southwest Thursday afternoon and evening.

1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Thursday morning will limit our daytime heating with generally cloudy skies expected most of the day. With temperatures expected to warm near 70 degrees, any sunshine we get would really help to de-stabilize the atmosphere. The problem is, I don’t think we’ll see much sunshine so the severity of any storms will be limited.

2) Dew points will probably only make it up into the upper 50’s. Here is a look at the projected dew points tomorrow afternoon and evening. From the GFS model.

GFS Dewpoint

And The NAM.

NAM Dewpoint

Notice the more moisture rich air (higher dew points) is off to our SW. Generally speaking, as a cold front moves through the higher the dew point, the better the chance for thunderstorms and potential severe weather.

So overall what do I think?

I think that our threat for severe weather  is pretty low for late Thursday. Again, I think as the cold front moves through we could see a storm or two that produces severe wind gusts into the 50 to 60 mph range, but those will be few and far between. On and off rain will last through Friday as well with the region probably totaling anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation by the time this system clears out late Friday.

GFS Rainfall

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! And be sure to download our weather app for live radar, video forecasts and severe weather alerts!

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-Kyle