**UPDATED** WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEVERE THREAT

6/22/16

Dangerously high winds will be possible tonight here in West Central Ohio along with heavy rain that could lead to flooding and perhaps an isolated tornado or two. This is easily the highest threat for severe weather we have had in 2016 so it would be a good idea to secure any outdoor items and have a safety plan in place as storms move in between about 10 PM and 2 AM Thursday morning.

Let’s get down to the details:

How is this storm going to develop? An area of low pressure and warm front will be moving over Northern Illinois late this evening that will likely spark what is called a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). As I mentioned in my previous blog post, an MCS is a large and organized area of thunderstorms that typically persists for several hours. They usually congeal or develop into a well-defined bow echo that can bring widespread wind damage to a region. Sometimes MCS’s can be classified as a Derecho, but that doesn’t happen until AFTER the storm has ended based on how widespread and long-lived the wind damage is. Here is where I’m thinking the MCS will develop around 9 PM tonight.

Future 9 PM

The system will evolve and move through Northern Indiana heading towards the midnight hour.

Future 11 PM

And probably enter Western Ohio after midnight.

Future 2AM

Other forecast models confirm this arrival time, there has been high consensus among different models giving me pretty high confidence in an arrival time from 11:30PM to 12:30AM into West Central Ohio. Here is a look at another model, the HRRR around 1 AM.

HRRR 1 AM

What can we expect from this storm?

A lot. High wind, heavy rain, and even a few isolated tornadoes. The National Weather Service continues to keep the region under a “Moderate Risk” for severe weather. We don’t see this high of a risk very often, and because of that should be taken very seriously.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

How bad will the storm be?

My biggest concern is high winds. Here is a look at the probability of winds over 58 miles per hour within 25 miles of any given point on the map. Notice the black hatched area, that means that within that area the possibility exists to see winds topping 75 miles per hour with storms, that’s hurricane force.

DAY 1 WIND

I’m worried about isolated tornadoes too, but to a lesser extent. Here is a similar probability map but for tornadoes. 5% isn’t very high, but there is definitely a chance that a few storms could spawn a short lived tornado or two.

DAY 1 TORNADO

And I can’t forget the rain. We could see lots of rain, especially south of Route 30. Here is a look at the possible rain totals in the region through Thursday morning.

Possible Rain

Again, the timeframe for these storms is in the 10PM to 2AM timeframe. Once the system develops later this evening I will begin to narrow that down. I’ll definitely keep you updated through the evening and stay up to the latest radar with our Weather App!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

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Wednesday Night Severe Weather Risk

6/21/16

Conditions are coming together for a widespread severe weather outbreak across the Great Lakes Region Wednesday evening into Wednesday night that could impact NW Ohio with widespread high wind. As of now here are the details of what I am expecting to develop but also remember that this will likely be adjusted a bit over the next 24 hours as new data comes in.

As of now, The National Weather Service has placed NW Ohio under a rare “Moderate Risk” for severe weather for Wednesday evening and Wednesday night.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK WIDE

A closer look at the region.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Notice that West Central Ohio is right on the edge of the higher risk area, that is because this anticipated Mesoscale Convective System, or, “MCS” will probably develop somewhere over Northern Illinois Wednesday evening and track SE toward Ohio into the overnight hours. An MCS is a large and organized area of thunderstorms that typically persists for several hours. They usually congeal or develop into a well-defined bow echo that can bring widespread wind damage to a region. Sometimes MCS’s can be classified as a Derecho, but that doesn’t happen until AFTER the storm has ended based on how widespread and long-lived the wind damage is. As of now, I don’t feel comfortable saying “possible Derecho” simply because we won’t know until after any damage is assessed.

Here is the set up for the system Wednesday evening. A strengthening area of low pressure will pull a warm front north up into Northern Illinois, Indiana, and NW Ohio late Wednesday evening. This will all develop in a very moist and unstable environment just to the south of the warm front. The area where the potential MCS will develop will likely lie right near the “Triple Point”, or in other words, in the region by the low, cold front, and warm front.

Future Late

It’s important to note here that today’s weather forecast models typically have a VERY hard time forecasting exactly where an MCS will develop. So honestly, it won’t be until the system develops Wednesday evening that we’ll have a much better idea of where it will track. So for now I’m going to assume that it will track along the warm front which will extend into Western Ohio.

Very high wind shear values will be present along the warm front that will allow for this system to maintain most of its strength into the overnight hours as it tracks towards Western Ohio. If there is any silver lining to all of this it is that this system is expected to move through in the 10 PM to 3 AM timeframe, a time not typically best for severe weather. However, I do believe that the wind shear present in the atmosphere will be enough to overcome any loss of daytime heating and help maintain strength.

So here is the bottom line.

High wind will over 60 mph will be very possible with any thunderstorms from about 10 PM to 3 AM Wednesday night. Isolated tornadoes can also spin up along an MCS, but aren’t typically very strong. MCS systems also have the tendency to bring very heavy rain, flooding with this system is definitely a concern as well with over 2 inches of rain possible Wednesday night. Make a plan now to cover or secure anything outdoors Wednesday night and have a plan in place for your family in case warnings are issued. Here is my overall threat outlook.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

I will definitely be watching this very closely and update as new data comes in!

-Kyle

 

 

Welcome To Mid-Summer! (Sort of…)

5/24/16

Yes I know, we’re still a month away from the official beginning of the summer season but the weather pattern we are going to experience the rest of this week is one more reminiscent of July/August. Basically what we’re dealing with is a VERY slowly moving frontal system that will impact the Plains with several days of possible severe weather. For us, a retreating high pressure system to the south and east will allow a much more humid air mass to build into Ohio.

Set Up

Over the next several days not only will temperatures continue to rise, but so will dew points. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere, the higher the dew point, the more sticky it begins to feel outside. Starting Wednesday, dew points are going to rise and stay in the 60’s through the Memorial Day Weekend.

Future Dew Points

Couple those high dew points with temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday in the low to mid 80’s, and you’re going to have a much more uncomfortable warmth here in West Central Ohio.

Future Temperatures

With the added heat and humidity here in Ohio we’ll have the chance for “pop up” showers and thunderstorms pretty much every day this week and this weekend. By no means will any day be a rain out, and the reason for that is because there really won’t be any real forcing mechanism (cold front, warm front, low pressure system) to bring more organized thunderstorms or rain to the region. The better forcing will remain out west through the weekend, and with the better forcing will come the better chance for severe weather.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

As you can see, I am not expecting “pop up” thunderstorms here in Ohio to be severe. But we could see a few storms over the next 4 or 5 days drop some heavy downpours and small hail. Bottom line is that it’s going to be a “rinse, wash, and repeat” forecast through Memorial Day with highs in the 80’s and isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day!

Have a great night everyone!

-Kyle

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Severe Weather Possible Thursday Evening

(3/30/16)

Two rounds of rain will move through West Central Ohio in the next 24 hours. The first round will move through Wednesday night into Thursday morning here in West Central Ohio bringing mainly just rain and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms through noon on Thursday. Once this first round comes to an end early Thursday afternoon, we’ll get a break from the precipitation through most of the afternoon hours. It’s not until Thursday evening that a cold front will begin to approach and we’ll see our chance for some stronger storms. Here is a look at the current severe weather outlook for Thursday, but as far as we are concerned, Thursday evening.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

The BIG question on Thursday afternoon is how much sunshine we’ll see here in NW Ohio. If we can stay cloudy most of the afternoon and early evening, thunderstorms that develop Thursday afternoon over higher risk areas to the west (see image above) will be moving into a less favorable environment here in Ohio by the time they reach us into the evening hours.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

There is no doubt that higher instability and better overall conditions for severe storms will be to the southwest of us here in Lima. However, if we can see a couple of hours of sunshine Thursday afternoon and our temperatures warm into the low 70’s our chance for severe storms will increase. For now I’m leaning towards the scenario that we won’t clear out much Thursday afternoon thanks to residual cloud cover from morning rain, this would lessen our chance for severe weather Thursday evening. Even in this scenario, we’re still looking at a decent chance for some damaging winds of 50 mph+ here in West Central Ohio between 5 and 10 PM. Here is a look at Futurecast around 7 PM Thursday evening.

DMA Future Cast And Temps

Wind shear is pretty strong with this system too! Because of that, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out either in the 5 to 10 PM timeframe.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

The bottom line with this system is that we will see rain, wind gusts of over 40 mph throughout the day on Thursday, and the potential for a few severe storms Thursday evening. Be sure to check our Facebook page and our weather app throughout the day on Thursday for updates!

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Storms NOT Snow Possible Tuesday Night

 

2/1/16

Groundhog Day will bring the chance for severe storms to part of the Ohio Valley but there is not a lot of confidence that those storms will make it as far north as West Central Ohio. One thing is for sure though, after another warm up on Tuesday, we’ll see some very gusty wind, rain and maybe even some thunder before the days end.

Here is the set up with a strong cold front lifting through the mid-west. The front will draw up a good amount of moisture out of the Gulf, but will probably struggle to pull it into most of Ohio during the daylight hours. By 7 PM Tuesday the area I have circled will be the area to watch for severe storms capable of producing damaging wind and isolated tornadoes.

Future Tuesday Evening

This lines up very well with the National Weather Service’s outlook for Tuesday.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Once the warm front in the image above lifts to our north we will probably feel temperatures jump into the mid to upper 50’s late Tuesday evening.

Future Temperatures

These warmer temperatures will also be accompanied by some of the increased moisture I talked about earlier, but the timing won’t be very good for thunderstorm development being night-time. Nonetheless, some strong wind could accompany rain that moves in late Tuesday evening with wind gusts potentially over 40 mph.

FUTURE WIND GUSTS

In an effort not to drag this one out I’ll end this post by saying that there is a very low threat for strong thunderstorms here Tuesday evening. Isolated wind gusts over 40 mph will certainly be possible, but the overall threat is something I am not concerned with.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

With the rain moving in tomorrow please make sure to stay updated with our weather app!

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-Kyle

Severe Weather In The Midwest This Wednesday

11/9/15

A strong frontal system will plow through the middle part of the United States on Wednesday bringing a widespread threat for severe weather across America’s heartland. As of today’s forecasts, here is how the set up is looking for Wednesday.

Wed Set Up Day

Several different ingredients for severe weather will be coming together including a strong cold front and VERY active jet stream helping to stir trouble here on the ground. One thing to notice on the above graphic is that this system will have limited moisture (dew-points) to work with. This is typical for this time of year the further north you are but it doesn’t completely rule out the chance for severe weather, even though typically the more moist the air is the better the overall threat for storms.

Here is the current outlook from the National Weather Service for Wednesday’s potential storms.

SEVERE WED

Notice how the set up graphic above correlates with the outlook. The area where the strong jet stream winds, cold front, low pressure and moisture coincide is where the best chance for storms including isolated tornadoes will be Wednesday afternoon and evening.

All of this activity will head our way Wednesday night with the chance for strong storms here in West Central Ohio. The good news for us is that several factors will work against us getting any severe weather. Here is a look at the potential set up by about midnight on Wednesday night.

Wed Night Severe

We’ll still be dealing with a strong jet stream moving in, so that greatly enhances our chance for strong winds to the tune of 40 to 50 mph. But we won’t have barely any moisture to work with and without higher dew points the atmosphere has trouble becoming unstable, and without that instability storms have a hard time developing and maintaining strength. Here is a look at our projected dew points Wednesday night. Notice the higher dew points staying to the south and west of West Central Ohio. Where you find the higher moisture, that’s where you’ll find the better chance for storms Wednesday night.

Wed Night Dew Point

Looking closer at the severe weather outlook, it’s clear that’s where the better chance for severe weather is as well.

SEVERE WED ZOOM

 

Having said that, a very strong jet stream can sometimes make up for a lack of instability, but the fact that all this is trying to come together at night has me pretty confident that we’ll very likely just deal with the chance for gusty winds into Thursday morning.

This is definitely something worth watching over the next day or so, but as I mentioned above, I’m not too concerned as of now. Stay tuned!

Also! Be sure to check out our Weather App! It’s great for radar and active watches and warnings!

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-Kyle

 

Severe Weather Threat Wednesday

8/18/15

The threat for severe weather will return to West Central Ohio on Wednesday thanks to a strong cold front expected to move into the region late in the day. Today (Tuesday) the aforementioned front is stretched across the Midwest sparking isolated severe weather through Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri.

Future

On Wednesday the front will shift to the Great Lakes with the parent area of low pressure expected to track across northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Looking at the severe weather outlook on Wednesday, it’s no surprise that the better chance for severe weather will be to our north and closer to the dynamics of the low pressure system.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

But that doesn’t mean that we here in West Central Ohio should let our guard down. As this front approaches during the day we’ll likely see some of the remnants of Tuesdays storms affecting the viewing area sometime in the 11 AM to 3 PM timeframe. Here is a look at the Futurecast around 2 PM Wednesday.

Future 1

These showers and thunderstorms that move through during this time will have moved well out ahead of the actual cold front. This means that they will be detached from the better forcing along the front and will likely be sub-severe.

By the time the front begins to approach into the evening hours I’ll be paying close attention to how much sunshine can break out after any storms earlier in the day.

Future 2

Most forecasts call for modest destabilization after the first line of showers and thunderstorms moves through. By the time the actual front arrives later in the evening the strength of any storms will be directly related to the amount of instability that is built up thanks to sunshine. There is some good upper level wind shear accompanying this front as well, but the good news is that the best upper level wind support will likely lag behind the surface front. In the picture below I have the strongest upper level winds circled, this is the RPM model projection around 2 PM Wednesday afternoon.

500 Wind

Here is the RPM model projection of the stronger upper level winds around midnight, closer to the time the actual front will be moving in. Notice that the strongest winds are still to the north and west of Ohio.

500 Wind 2

So what does this all mean?

Ideally in a severe weather outbreak you look for the strong upper level winds, instability and frontal passage to come together at the same time. In this case it doesn’t appear as if any of the above three will come together. The upper level wind support will be behind the surface cold front and the instability will probably be waning as the front moves through into the overnight hours. The ingredients for this one just don’t seem to be coming together as of now to give us a great severe threat. I think there will be a few severe thunderstorms possible with isolated damaging wind, but other than that most of the storms tomorrow should be below severe limits.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

I’ll be sure to keep you updated if things change! Remember to download our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and weather alerts!

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-Kyle

Heavy Rain/Severe Storms Possible Into Next Week

7/10/15

Just what we here in West Central Ohio need to hear right? As we venture through the weekend we’ll start things off with a partly to mostly sunny day on Saturday but by Sunday the chance for showers and thunderstorms will return.

The same stationary front that has been sitting to our south for the last 3 or 4 days will creep back northward as a warm front for the second half of the weekend. AS OF NOW it’s still up in the air as to how far this warm front will be able to lift north. The further north the front lifts, the better chance we will see for both more heavy rain and severe weather. Here is a look at the position of the front based on the RPM forecast model as of late Sunday. (Keep in mind, that I’m thinking any showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will probably be below severe limits.)

Future 1

This front will be the boundary for a VERY warm and unstable air mass into next week. Due to increased heat and humidity CAPE values have the potential to be very high especially Monday here in West Central Ohio. Forecast models are still divided on how far north the front will make it on Monday. The GFS has the front the furthest north and brings the very unstable air mass into NW Ohio on Monday. Here is a look at the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values into Monday evening. Numbers above 2 or 3 thousand j/kg indicate the potential for an explosive storm environment. Notice much of the region is in the 3 to 4 thousand j/kg range.

GFS CAPE

When you couple that high CAPE with a warm front in the region that definitely catches a meteorologists attention! This scenario for Monday is still 3 days away and is definitely not set in stone, just something to watch over the next 24 to 48 hours to see if it pans out or not.

Here is a look at the NAM forecast model CAPE on Monday. Notice it’s shifted further west and south but still extremely high!

NAM CAPE

Basically the point I’m trying to make is that somewhere in the Southern Great Lakes region will be in line for a severe weather outbreak on Monday. It’s all dependent on where exactly that warm front sets up. You can bet I’ll be watching, especially Monday!

If you haven’t yet, check out our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and any watches/warnings that may be issued!

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-Kyle

 

 

Monday Afternoon Severe Weather Threat For West Central Ohio

A cold front will move through the region later today bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to Ohio.

prog12hr

As this front moves in there is the chance it could spark some severe weather here in Ohio. Here is a look at the current severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for Monday.

day1otlk_1300

Notice that all of Ohio is under a “Slight Risk” area. This means that the overall threat for severe weather is low with the biggest concern this afternoon and evening being some isolated damaging wind and hail. There is the chance for an isolated tornado or two in the Great Lakes region. Here is a look at the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point on the map from the SPC. Based on the map below the overall chance is low, but 5 percent over Ohio is worth noting.

day1probotlk_1300_torn

One thing that could in fact dull our chance for severe weather this afternoon here in West Central could be our current cloud cover hanging around much of the morning and early afternoon. A look at the high-resolution visible satellite across the region shows very few breaks in the clouds through NW Ohio and Indiana.

visible

If we manage to stay under mostly cloudy skies our chance for severe weather will lessen simply due to the fact that our daytime heating potential won’t be reached. Basically, if we see some good sunshine late this morning/early afternoon our chance for severe storms goes up. If we see mainly cloudy skies and no sunshine, it goes down.

You can see here based on the HRRR which is a high-resolution weather forecast model used for severe weather that the CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy) are fairly low. They will generally be between 500 and 1,000 j/kg. Here is a look at CAPE around 4 PM this afternoon.

CAPE

These are not high CAPE values by any means. But there is also one other ingredient that may be strong enough to overcome this low instability to help form stronger storms.

Wind shear

As this cold front moves through wind shear values look pretty high. Wind shear is any change in wind speed OR direction with height in the atmosphere. This change helps to maintain and grow thunderstorms. A quick look at wind shear values along the front as it passes through this afternoon look to be more than enough to fire up thunderstorms in conjunction with the lower CAPE values I noted above. Here is a look at shear around 4 PM this afternoon.

shear

In the above map we’re generally looking at 30 to 40 knots of shear in the 0 to 6 kilometer level of our atmosphere. 30 to 40 knots is pretty high, anything above 50 or so is getting VERY high and more than enough to spark a pretty wide outbreak of severe weather.

So what do I think?

Forcing mechanism (cold front), check. Wind shear this afternoon, check. Instability (CAPE) half check.

I generally look for these three ingredients to all come together at the same time for severe weather. They do a decent job of this at best this afternoon but I have seen much better collaboration in the past. Because of this, our overall threat is low but damaging wind, hail or even an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out this afternoon/evening between 2 PM and about 8 PM.

I’ll be sure to keep you all updated through the afternoon! And remember, you can download our weather app to keep up on the latest radar along with watches/warnings that may be issued.

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-Kyle

 

 

 

UPDATE On Saturday Snow Potential

2/19/15

In Wednesday’s post here I talked about three different possible tracks of an area of low pressure that will impact Ohio into the weekend. The track of the low is becoming more clear as of today, and it looks as if the low will be tracking south of Ohio. For us, that means a snow event and not a rain/snow mix as I talked about on Wednesday.

So here is a look at that southward trending low as it nears West Central Ohio early Saturday morning.

Future 1

Before I go on, even though most forecast models seem to be converging on this southern track of the low, it could still shift its track! It could continue to shift further south by this time tomorrow, and if that happens I’ll continue to adjust my forecast! What I’m laying out here is what we can expect IF this low maintains its current track as portrayed by forecast models today.

Ok, now that necessary disclaimer is out-of-the-way let’s continue 🙂

Based on Thursday’s data light snow looks to move into West Central Ohio by daybreak Saturday morning beginning as light snow. As the low moves closer we’ll probably see the snow pick up into the afternoon and evening hours.

Future 2

Current trends take most of the snow OUT of West Central Ohio now by midnight Saturday night.

Future 3

With the track of this low appearing to be about 150 to 200 miles south, it’s looking very likely that this will be an all snow event. It would be pretty rare at this point to see a shift in the track of the low that far north in just the next 36 hours to give us a chance for some rain mixed in.

With the snow expected, here is a look at the NOAA percentages for the chance for four or more inches of snow. Most of West Central Ohio is in the 40 to 50 percent range. This is by no means set in stone, but at this point I will go conservative and say most of us stand to see between 2 and 4 inches during the day Saturday.

HPC

Kyle Snow Totals 2

Again, a lot can still change from now until Saturday! I’ll keep you informed!

-Kyle

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