Wednesday Afternoon/Evening Severe Threat

Here we are almost to the Christmas holiday and I’m writing a blog post about severe weather and NOT snow! But with VERY warm temperatures expected Wednesday, along with the passing of a cold front, there is a low-end threat for isolated severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Here is what you need to know.

Set up To even see low chances for severe weather reaching up into Northwest Ohio for this time of year is pretty remarkable. Tuesdays outlook from the National Weather Service has West Central Ohio right on the northern edge of that low risk.

Outlook Wide

And a closer look

Outlook Close

The threat for severe weather will be present thanks to unusually warm temperatures in the mid 60’s along with the approach of a frontal system that will draw up a lot of moisture from the Gulf. This front and area of low pressure will have a lot of support from the jet stream which means very high wind shear will be in place, especially late afternoon and evening. The warm temperatures and high moisture will also allow for low but (still significant for this time of year) CAPE values that will allow for just enough instability to produce thunderstorms.  Here is a look at those CAPE values by about 2 PM Wednesday afternoon. They are definitely low, but really any CAPE this time of year is a bonus for potential severe weather.

CAPE

Notice in the picture above that the higher CAPE values are off to the west in Missouri and Southern Illinois. As the day progresses I’ll be watching to see if that area of higher instability can make it this far east. If it does, it appears the best chance for isolated severe storms will be late in the evening as the cold front nears West Central Ohio.

Timing- As of now the window for our storms appears to be between about 3 PM and 11 PM Wednesday. The threat for strong to severe storms will come in two waves, the first being with a prefrontal area of showers and thunderstorms that will take advantage of increasing moisture and temperatures already in the low to mid 60’s.

Prefrontal Activity

The second line of potential thunderstorms will move in between about 7 PM and 11 PM and it’s this line that I think has the better chance for isolated damaging winds, and to a much lesser extent, perhaps an isolated/brief tornado.

Local 2

Summary- My confidence in severe weather Wednesday isn’t very high. There will certainly be high wind shear in the atmosphere along with a small amount of CAPE, but I just have a hard time believing we’ll see much more than some isolated damaging winds this time of year. Between 3 and 11 PM on Wednesday my biggest concern is isolated winds from 50 to 60 mph and to a lesser extent the chance for a brief/isolated tornado.

Severe Outlook

I’ll be sure to keep you updated as the system moves in! In the meantime you can always track any incoming weather on our weather app!

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-Kyle

 

 

 

 

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Severe Weather Threat Wednesday

8/18/15

The threat for severe weather will return to West Central Ohio on Wednesday thanks to a strong cold front expected to move into the region late in the day. Today (Tuesday) the aforementioned front is stretched across the Midwest sparking isolated severe weather through Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri.

Future

On Wednesday the front will shift to the Great Lakes with the parent area of low pressure expected to track across northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. Looking at the severe weather outlook on Wednesday, it’s no surprise that the better chance for severe weather will be to our north and closer to the dynamics of the low pressure system.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

But that doesn’t mean that we here in West Central Ohio should let our guard down. As this front approaches during the day we’ll likely see some of the remnants of Tuesdays storms affecting the viewing area sometime in the 11 AM to 3 PM timeframe. Here is a look at the Futurecast around 2 PM Wednesday.

Future 1

These showers and thunderstorms that move through during this time will have moved well out ahead of the actual cold front. This means that they will be detached from the better forcing along the front and will likely be sub-severe.

By the time the front begins to approach into the evening hours I’ll be paying close attention to how much sunshine can break out after any storms earlier in the day.

Future 2

Most forecasts call for modest destabilization after the first line of showers and thunderstorms moves through. By the time the actual front arrives later in the evening the strength of any storms will be directly related to the amount of instability that is built up thanks to sunshine. There is some good upper level wind shear accompanying this front as well, but the good news is that the best upper level wind support will likely lag behind the surface front. In the picture below I have the strongest upper level winds circled, this is the RPM model projection around 2 PM Wednesday afternoon.

500 Wind

Here is the RPM model projection of the stronger upper level winds around midnight, closer to the time the actual front will be moving in. Notice that the strongest winds are still to the north and west of Ohio.

500 Wind 2

So what does this all mean?

Ideally in a severe weather outbreak you look for the strong upper level winds, instability and frontal passage to come together at the same time. In this case it doesn’t appear as if any of the above three will come together. The upper level wind support will be behind the surface cold front and the instability will probably be waning as the front moves through into the overnight hours. The ingredients for this one just don’t seem to be coming together as of now to give us a great severe threat. I think there will be a few severe thunderstorms possible with isolated damaging wind, but other than that most of the storms tomorrow should be below severe limits.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

I’ll be sure to keep you updated if things change! Remember to download our weather app to stay up on the latest radar and weather alerts!

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-Kyle

A Wet And Potentially Stormy Week Ahead

I hope everyone is enjoying the holiday weekend! We have had some very nice and cooperative weather here in Ohio the past few days with temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s along with a lot of sunshine! But active weather is expected this upcoming week with several chances for rain, and yes, even the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms in the region.

The culprit for all the active weather will be a stationary front that will basically slowly meander north and south over Ohio to begin the week.

Kyle RPM 12KM Futurecast

By late Monday this front will become the focus of rain and possible thunderstorms thanks to a surge of moisture moving in out of the south and west. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night through about noon on Tuesday and then possibly once again late Tuesday evening as another disturbance moves along the stationary front. It’s important to note that in situations like this when there is a front stalled out across the area temperatures can become very tricky to predict. As of now I’m saying mid 60’s for both Monday and Tuesday, but if this front hangs a little further north for longer than expected, temperatures could easily surge into the low 70’s, especially on Tuesday. As of now it looks as if the best chance for rain will be late Monday night into Tuesday morning and then once again late Tuesday evening into Wednesday night. There will be thunderstorms with both rounds of rain, but as of now it looks like they will stay below severe limits.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

DAY 3 OUTLOOK

There is also the chance that rainfall totals both Monday and Tuesday could easily eclipse 1 inch here in West Central Ohio. Flooding concerns will have to be watched.

Now on to later in the week.

Eventually by late Wednesday and Thursday the aforementioned stationary front will lift back north as a warm front and eventually allow for a strong cold front to sweep in from the West. With the warm front lifting to the north a lot of warm and moist air will be in place throughout much of the Midwest. This will set the stage for potential severe weather from Kansas to Indiana Wednesday and Thursday as the cold front moves across the country. This front will be fueled by some increased upper level energy that can be seen by looking at the jet stream. Here is a look at that energy both Wednesday and Thursday. Look for the light to dark blue colors in the first image over the four corners region and then those same colors shifted east over the Midwest in the second image. That is where the upper level energy will best interact with surface level heating and moisture.

Wedn Upper Energy

Thursday Upper Energy

It’s no surprise that where these strong upper level winds are coinciding with surface heating and moisture is where the chance for severe weather will be. Here is a look at where the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted for potential severe weather on Wednesday.

Severe Wed

And Then on Thursday with an even better chance for severe weather highlighted by the area shaded in red.

Severe Thu

You have probably noticed that Ohio is NOT in the highlighted area for either Wednesday or Thursday. That doesn’t mean we won’t get any rain or thunderstorms, it just means the best chance for SEVERE thunderstorms will likely stay to our West until late Thursday night and Friday when the cold front will move through. It’s still too early to say exactly when the front will move through, but as of now it looks like that will happen sometime late Thursday night/early Friday morning. If that’s the case, that wouldn’t be a very favorable time for severe weather to develop. You can bet I will be watching this DEVELOPING situation all week-long and keep you updated of any and all changes to the forecast!

Remember to download our weather app too!

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-Kyle

 

 

Severe Storms Possible Late Wednesday For West Central Ohio

9/8/2014

A strong cold front will move through the region late Wednesday bringing the possibility for severe weather including damaging wind and the threat for an isolated tornado.

The set up is one that is definitely showing that we’re nearing the changing of the seasons with a MUCH cooler air mass slated to move into West Central Ohio. The system will really gain steam on Tuesday with severe weather a good possibility through Nebraska, Iowa, Southern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin.

Tuesday Future

The cold front will continue to push east on Wednesday shifting the threat for severe weather into the Southern Great Lakes.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Some unseasonably strong upper level wind support will accompany this system as it moves in late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening. If you read this blog you have probably heard me talk about “wind shear” and “CAPE” quite often, both being important contributors to severe weather potential. In Wednesday’s case, there will be pretty high wind shear for this time of year with CAPE values that are still in question. Here’s the set up:

Wind Shear

As the cold front nears on Wednesday evening it will have pretty good upper level wind support to help maintain storms that develop along the front. Most forecast models agree with each other and show wind shear values high enough to warrant severe weather potential here in West Central Ohio. Wind shear is either the change in wind SPEED with height or the change in wind DIRECTION with height in the atmosphere. This change of wind through the atmosphere is crucial to building and maintaining severe thunderstorms. Here is a look at where the highest wind shear will be Wednesday evening, the higher shear values are where the darker colors are in this map.

NAM SHEAR

I also look at very low-level wind shear and the chance for the atmosphere to generate LOW level circulation in thunderstorms, this is called Helicity. Helicity values from the surface up too about 1 kilometer in the sky are moderately high Wednesday evening. This is a main reason we could see an isolated tornado or two somewhere in NW Ohio late Wednesday. While our helicty values are progged to be higher than normal, the highest low-level helicity is probably going to stay to our north closer to the are of low pressure moving through the Northern Great Lakes.

NAM HELICITY

CAPE

We know that good wind shear will be in place along the front as it moves through West Central Ohio Wednesday, but the CAPE is still in question. CAPE, or, Convective Available Potential Energy is the energy in the atmosphere that is used to rapidly develop thunderstorms. Basically,The more sunshine we get on Wednesday= The higher CAPE values we’ll have to fuel potential severe weather. If you can get a lot of instability (high CAPE) AND high wind shear along a strong cold front then look out! Thankfully, our CAPE will probably be on the low side here in West Central Ohio. But that’s still not to say we’ll completely dodge the bullet.

Most forecast models are showing relatively low CAPE late Wednesday including the GFS shown below. Notice in the graphic that the highest CAPE (which is still pretty low) is off into Southern Indiana and Illinois by about 8 PM Wednesday.

GFS CAPE

Here is a look at the NAM model at the same time (this one has been a bit of an outlier)

NAM CAPE

IF, and that’s a BIG if, we can get CAPE values Wednesday afternoon as the NAM is indicating then we have the potential to see a pretty substantial severe weather outbreak for this time of year. Thankfully, as of now, I don’t think that is going to happen. Here’s why:

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be ongoing through the midwest into Tuesday night. These storms will weaken and eventually move east towards us here in West Central Ohio. These storms will spread considerable cloudiness over NW Ohio into Wednesday morning/early afternoon.

Future Wednesday Morning

Notice in the above picture that the storms will be racing out ahead of the better forcing and lift along the cold front by Wednesday morning, along with a loss of daytime heating, this will definitely weaken these storms below severe limits. IF we can stay mostly cloudy with remnant showers from Tuesday’s storms on Wednesday, our atmosphere has a good chance at staying pretty stable (Low CAPE). This is definitely what I’ll be watching most as this cold front nears.

As of now, my forecast is calling for low CAPE and thus a lower severe threat late Wednesday. However, with such high shear values in place, it doesn’t take much destabilization to fire up storms. With that in mind the biggest threat is damaging winds in the 6PM to Midnight timeframe Wednesday evening. Because of pretty good wind shear and low-level helicity, an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out either. Here is a look at how I think the severe weather threat will break down.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

These are just my initial thoughts right now. We still have two days until these storms arrive so I will be sure to keep up on the latest forecasts and keep you updated! ALSO, if you haven’t yet, please check out our FREE weather app. With live radar and up to date watches and warnings it’s a wonderful tool to have with severe weather approaching.

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Stay tuned!

-Kyle

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Hot Friday With Thunderstorms To Cool Us Down

9/4/2014

Tomorrow may be one of our last chances to reach 90 degrees for the remainder of the summer thanks to a cold front that will pass through late tomorrow evening here in West Central Ohio. During the day temperatures will easily warm into the upper 80’s along with continued dew points hovering around 70 degrees, that means another hot and muggy day.

But the warmth will NOT last into the weekend thanks to a cold front expected to move in by the end of the day Friday. With this front moving into such a hot and muggy environment, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by the late afternoon hours across parts of Indiana and Michigan. Based on the latest forecast models, these storms will track East/Southeast into West Central Ohio by the late evening hours. Here is a look at Futurecast by 8 PM Friday evening.

8 PM Future

This will likely end up being a broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving through West Central Ohio in the 8PM to Midnight timeframe. Headed out to a football game tomorrow night? Be sure to keep an eye to the sky!

The good news is that these storms should mostly stay BELOW severe limits. Isolated wind damage is possible, but the overall severe threat will be low thanks to a general lack up upper wind support (wind shear) as these storms move through. Here is a look at some of that shear, notice the higher shear values (darker blue and purple) stay WELL north of the area into Friday afternoon and evening.

Shear Friday

Without this wind shear support the storms that develop along this cold front will have a hard time maintaining themselves. Good wind shear allows storms to develop longer lasting updrafts that can lead to stronger storms. A few of these storms could be on the strong side, but the overall threat remains low at this time. An isolated damaging wind gust is possible along with possible flooding where slower moving storms set up.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

Even though the severe threat is low, there is a good chance thunderstorms will be in the region. If you’re headed to a football game be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecasts and radar. There is no better way to do that than with our Storm Authority Weather App which can be downloaded for free!

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-Kyle

Severe Weather For Parts Of The Midwest Labor Day Weekend

We’re in for a change in our weather pattern as we head into the Labor Day weekend, and unfortunately it’s looking like a pretty active weather period can be expected in the Midwest through early next week.

A warm front lifting out of the south on Friday will signal the change. This front will bring a return of hotter and more humid conditions into the upcoming weekend. But there is good news! Even with the front in the region on Friday, it does look as if we’ll stay dry here in West Central Ohio for the first Football Friday Night of the season. We’ll just have to deal with a little more heat and mugginess.

After a dry first half of our Saturday, ample moisture building in out of the south will bring an increased chance for showers and thunderstorms into the evening and overnight hours. These showers and thunderstorms are NOT expected to be severe but they could bring with them some heavy rain into Sunday morning.

Saturday Rain

Once that system moves off to our east on Sunday we’ll see a gradual decrease in rain and clouds by the afternoon and evening. My attention will then shift out West where a better chance for severe weather could set up Sunday and Monday.

The National Weather Service already has an area highlighted on Sunday in anticipation of a severe weather outbreak.

Sunday Outlook

A couple of very key ingredients are expected to come together on Sunday in the region highlighted above that will help to spark severe storms.

1) Wind Shear

High wind shear is expected over Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota on Sunday afternoon. Wind shear is basically a change in DIRECTION or SPEED in wind as you go higher up into the sky. The more there is a change in wind direction or speed from the surface and up through the atmosphere, the more chance you have for thunderstorms that will be long-lasting and able to maintain themselves for hours at a time.

Sunday Shear

2) Instability

High CAPE, or, Convective Available Potential Energy is expected as well in this region on Sunday. The higher the CAPE values, the more primed the atmosphere is for any POTENTIAL thunderstorms.

Sunday CAPE

3) A Trigger

Without some sort of trigger, we could have all the CAPE in the world and it could still be a sunny day. In this case however, the trigger will be a strong cold front pushing through the Midwest that will be able to tap into high CAPE values and good wind shear likely triggering a round of severe weather.

By Monday all of this activity will push east and closer to us here in West Central Ohio. The same ingredients I highlighted above will be in play on Labor Day. As the aforementioned cold front continues to push east it will bring the focus for potential severe weather into parts of Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana where the best CAPE and Shear will be on Monday. Where you see the cold front, high shear and CAPE come together, that’s where the chance for severe storms will be.

In the graphic below I have circled an area where shear will be high, this is also the region where CAPE values will exceed 2,000 J/kg. Both shear and CAPE will NOT be as high on Monday as it was on Sunday further west. Notice that Western Ohio is not included in the area I have circled.

Monday Shear

Here is a look at the CAPE on Monday.

Labor Day CAPE

This set up certainly catches my eye especially since it will be closer to West Central Ohio on Monday. As of now it looks as if strong to severe storms will develop late Monday afternoon over Southern Wisconsin and Illinois and then push east into the evening. By the time they would reach West Central Ohio they will be outrunning both better CAPE and shear in the atmosphere. Nonetheless, this is still something to watch late Monday. This system is still four days away and if it speeds up (which is a possibility) that would shift the focus for severe weather closer to home. This is something to keep an eye on over the weekend, I’ll be sure to keep you updated!

-Kyle

If you haven’t yet, be sure to download our FREE Weather App! I use it all the time for tracking storms when I’m not in the office.

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Weekend Severe Weather Threat

A much more warm and moist air mass will settle into West Central Ohio this upcoming weekend with a couple of chances for severe thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday!

Most of the day on Saturday will probably be dry with just a few isolated showers and thunderstorms expected in the region thanks to a warm front lifting through. It’s that warm front that by the end up the day will bring warmer temperatures into the mid 80’s along with rising dew points well into the 60’s. Some very high CAPE values/instability will build into the region by the evening hours.

Some extremely high CAPE values potentially above 4,000 j/kg are possible by about 4 or 5 PM over parts of Illinois and Indiana.

Late Saturday CAPE

The latest models show a possible Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) developing in this are of very high CAPE late in the day on Saturday. This MCS will likely track across Indiana late evening and then into the Western half of Ohio by sunset potentially.

Future 1

Most forecast models (including the above image) show this MCS diving just to the south of West Central Ohio. But this will be something to watch because if it shifts another 50-100 miles or so North, we could potentially be in for a pretty good damaging wind storm here late evening. But for now, thankfully, it looks as if that threat will stay just to our south. With that said, we still have the chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm or two here in West Central Ohio heading into the overnight hours.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

The chance for severe weather on Sunday will be highly dependent on what happens on Saturday night. Basically if we can clear out and see some sunshine on Sunday after Saturday night’s activity we may be able to see the atmosphere destabilize enough to see a few strong to severe storms develop Sunday afternoon with a second cold front moving through. Forecast models are pointing to that scenario with CAPE vales once again on the rise into Sunday afternoon.

Sunday CAPE

By about 3 or 4PM models show that second cold front moving into the region. This would be an ideal time for showers and thunderstorms to develop during peak daytime heating.

Future 2

But with that said I’m still a bit skeptical based on the fact that we may not clear out a whole lot from Saturday night’s storms that roll through. The details for Sunday’s severe weather chance is still a bit foggy, but once we see how storms play out Saturday night we should be able to paint a better picture of what could happen on Sunday.

We’ll be watching this weekend! I’ll have all the latest tonight at 10 and 11 and Allison will be in on Saturday for further coverage!

ALSO! This weekend would be a GREAT time to have our new weather app! It’s free, check it out. I use it all the time to check the latest radar and track storms when I’m away from my desk!

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Have a great weekend everyone!

-Kyle

 

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday

The heat is on here in West Central Ohio with a high today here in Lima of 93 degrees! We’ll likely top out around 90 once again on Wednesday but unlike today, we’ll see a legit chance for some severe weather developing in the region. A cold front will continue to slowly shift south during the day on Wednesday bringing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region by the afternoon and evening hours. Any storms that develop during this time could become strong to severe especially with CAPE values over 2,000 j/jk expected. Here is a look at the SREF ensemble probabilities of CAPE over 2,000 j/kg tomorrow afternoon and evening. Almost all of Ohio has a better than 50% chance of achieving CAPE values that high. That would provide more than enough fuel to initiate storms.

Wednesday CAPE

Unlike today, we’ll actually have a front in the region to provide a trigger for potential storms. There is the possibility that at some point during the late afternoon and evening Wednesday an MCS type system could develop and move through. This has been shown in the latest RPM model runs. Here is a look at what could POTENTIALLY be moving through by late evening tomorrow around 10 PM.

Wednesday Future

In this case my biggest concerns tomorrow late afternoon and evening would be hail and damaging wind potential, the threat for an isolated tornado would be pretty low. Flooding could also become a concern for any slower moving cells that develop.

SEVERE HAZARD OUTLOOK NEW

Here is the NWS Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for severe weather on Wednesday.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

I’ll be sure to keep you updated! Keep an eye to the sky and stay cool. Don’t forget our free weather app if you haven’t downloaded it yet! It’s a great tool for tracking storms!

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-Kyle

 

 

Severe Weather Possible Wednesday (Update!)

A violent severe weather situation is unfolding across parts of the midwest this evening with a RARE high risk alert issued by the NWS Tuesday afternoon for Nebraska and Southern Iowa.

DAY 0 OUTLOOK

As of early this evening storms were still developing rapidly in this region with widespread damaging wind and tornadoes possible.

Current Radar

As the evening progresses these storms will congeal into a larger system, possibly similar to the Derecho that moved through here back in late June of 2012. (for more on the definition of a Derecho, check out a past post here)

As we look at our Futurecast, this developing storm system will track along a warm front that will be the boundary between very warm moist air and a more stable air mass to the north. Here is a look at where Futurecast places the system by about 2 or 3 AM Wednesday morning.

Future 1

As the system continues to ride along the warm front widespread damaging winds will race across Illinois and eventually into Indiana where they should begin to weaken.

Future 2

By the time the storms get to Ohio in the 7 to 10 AM timeframe they will still be potentially strong with isolated damaging wind and HEAVY rain possible.

Future 3

With this system essentially crossing through Illinois and Indiana overnight I do expect it to lose steam. But don’t let your guard down tomorrow morning! We’ll likely wake up to strong thunderstorms moving into West Central Ohio with the possibility of some severe producing winds over 50 or 60 mph!

The best warmth and moisture needed to sustain severe thunderstorms on Wednesday is expected to reside generally along and south of Route 30.

Outlook Wide

And a closer look…..

Outlook Zoom

My thinking is that if we do get some stronger storms in the 7 to 10 AM timeframe here in West Central Ohio, that will very much inhibit our chance to see any redevelopment later in the day. Storms in the morning will likely limit our chance to see any destabilization into the early afternoon hours, but this is still something to watch VERY closely! I say this because even though it looks as if the best ingredients appear to remain just to our south, if the warm front can push its way north just another 50 miles or so we’ll be in a much more favorable situation for severe weather into the 2 to 5 PM timeframe! For now here is a look at Futurecast and where redevelopment of storms is anticipated to occur by early afternoon Wednesday.

Future 4

By 6 or 7 PM the severe threat will likely come to an end.

Future 5

TO SUM IT ALL UP!

There will be TWO time periods to watch for severe weather on Wednesday. The first will be 7 to 10 AM as the remnants from Tuesday evening’s storms move into West Central Ohio. The second will come in the 2 to 5 PM timeframe when redevelopment is possible around the low and warm front. Overall I believe that the timing and placement of this system is just a bit off for a larger severe weather outbreak here. The timing being that storms will be weakening overnight as they move through Illinois and Indiana and placement of the warm front being just to our south. During the two time periods I mentioned above damaging wind is my biggest concern. However, if storms can redevelop across parts of West Central Ohio Wednesday afternoon there will be a small threat for isolated tornadoes as storms fire.

You know I’ll keep you updated! Be sure to watch at 10 and 11 tonight for all the latest!

Track any potential storms on our new Weather App!!!

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-Kyle

 

 

Watching For Severe Weather Wednesday

June is starting off on an active note with severe weather possible across parts of Ohio as we head into the middle of this week. A cold front that is bringing us showers and thunderstorms Monday evening will move south on Tuesday but will eventually lift back north as a warm front on Wednesday.

Future 1

It’s along this warm front that we’ll see severe weather develop both Tuesday and Wednesday. Let’s start with Tuesday: As of now it looks as if this will be the best chance for severe weather, thankfully for us here in West Central Ohio all of the activity on Tuesday will stay well to the west. The aforementioned warm front will be the focus for what will likely be a pretty strong MCS (mesoscale convective system) which I have circled in the graphic below. If you’re wondering what an MCS is, basically it’s a large cluster of thunderstorms that becomes organized and take on a round or linear shape lasting for several hours. These systems are usually likely to be found and traveling along warm fronts that are the boundary between some very warm moist air and cooler more stable air.

Future 2

Here is the current severe weather outlook from the SPC for Tuesday. They have an area from Nebraska to Illinois highlighted in a Moderate Risk. The anticipation is that this MCS will create conditions very favorable for widespread damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

DAY 1 OUTLOOK

As this MCS continues to track along the warm front it will likely be into Central Indiana by early Wednesday.

Future 3

IMPORTANT! The track of any potential MCS is HIGHLY dependent on where the warm front is. As of now, most forecast models including our Futurecast shown above keep the front just far enough South to keep West Central Ohio out of the bullseye for any MCS track on Wednesday. Here is the latest SPC severe weather outlook for Wednesday, notice that West Central Ohio is just on the northern border of the slight risk area.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Just a shift of about 50 to 100 miles north from the warm front will mean our chance for severe weather including damaging winds and the possibility of an isolated tornado will greatly increase. To put it simply, this is going to be a VERY close call and one that I’m not comfortable saying “were out of the woods” with right now. This will be one that I’ll be watching very closely over the next 24 hours. Stay tuned!

-Kyle